topher06 said:

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Anyone else feel like the people who have been predicting a pullback since spy300 are just upset they've sat in cash this whole time? Or even worse... puts.

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Yup. Why anyone fights the trend up or down blows my mind

59 South said:

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topher06 said:

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Anyone else feel like the people who have been predicting a pullback since spy300 are just upset they've sat in cash this whole time? Or even worse... puts.

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Yup. Why anyone fights the trend up or down blows my mind

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Agreed. The only constant the stock market has shown since it's inception is stable long term growth despite short term volatility.

That COULD change, I guess, but anything besides the constant buying and holding of stocks and index funds is an expensive gamble in my opinion.

I have had a small position in CBAY for a month and noticed that they filed a confidential treatment order with the SEC, do any of you have an idea of why they would do that?

Thanks in advance.

McInnis 03 said:

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ETSY is on sale. Hoping into some 9/18 verticals.

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what makes you think this isn't just trying to catch a falling knife?

This week was a pretty good week. Exited FB and Microsoft too early, and escaped AAPL with a small loss. Overall, can't complain.

I had set a trailing stop for a couple of these that were firmly in profit and closing in on my target while I couldn't monitor for the entire trading day. I set the stop too tightly and I ended up getting ejected. I may just not set stops and be willing to risk 100%.

I am trading vertical spreads. So the real money comes in the theta decay on Friday. It is tough not to just take the 50% max profit winner at close on Thursday though.

I am there on NVDA and ZM at the moment. Both sides are ITM but the collective package is worth nothing while you wait for decay. In hindsight, I'm asking myself why I didn't just stick with one leg.

One legs use more capital and risk. The vertical allows me to get into the trade for the same number of contracts at a lower cost and therefore more confidence to let the trade play out. Very happy to hit Singles, doubles and triples and not trying to hit grand slams only to strikeout.

I am usually buying at the money, even in the money so I am buying intrinsic value and less time value.

Man this is exactly what I've been struggling with lately. I've only been doing vertical spreads a couple weeks and i feel like when they win they blow through my sold call strike and I'd have been way better off just buying a call, i have to keep reminding myself that preservation of capital is the name of the game and I'm running a marathon not a sprint. Spreads vs yolos trying to beat myself into being a smarter investor

Who's selling crwd 120 weekly puts with me on Monday!?

Ragoo said:

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One legs use more capital and risk. The vertical allows me to get into the trade for the same number of contracts at a lower cost and therefore more confidence to let the trade play out. Very happy to hit Singles, doubles and triples and not trying to hit grand slams only to strikeout.

I am usually buying at the money, even in the money so I am buying intrinsic value and less time value.

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Of course. I don't go for home runs, but they occasionally happen. I occasionally also lay the goose egg, and it sucks, but it's normally from a news event or something beyond my control. Sometimes I screw up and forget to roll something or hold too long when theta decay sets in. I set targets to scale in and scale out. To your strategy, it is easy to set it and forget it for max gain.

Unfortunately, when my normal work routine starts again post COVID, I won't be able to do anything but once a day monitoring. This is more of a problem where I don't want to get assigned. I do not want to inadvertently buy (or sell) 100 shares of Amazon. Strategy has to match what you have time for.

I did well on two SPXL strangles this week. I unwind them piecemeal, so it's too early to evaluate results, but I'll be a decent bit ahead on both sets.

So how do we play it? It's not a bear market where we short all rips (is it?!), vix keeps climbing so tough/expensive to buy tvix or vxx calls. Do we just go heavy gold/silver/bitcoin?

NRD09 said:

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So how do we play it? It's not a bear market where we short all rips (is it?!), vix keeps climbing so tough/expensive to buy tvix or vxx calls. Do we just go heavy gold/silver/bitcoin?

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The Vix is not high. I paid $500 for 5 VXX 27C this week.

Ok maybe i need to reevaluate, vix goes flat for a couple days and i buy vxx calls, sell for an easy double on the inevitable spy btfd/vix spike, rinse repeat, but i need to remember when i bailed on tvix at like $40 and it promptly ran up to $1k. Maybe i need to start averaging into tvix again then not bail at the first little pop, if the big reckoning is really coming

If you want a dose of reality, take a look at the SPX/NDX weekly and monthly charts, or even the daily. We are a staggering distance away from the 5EMA and 21 EMA. For Nasdaq, on the daily, a 21 EMA reconnect is a 600 point dump.

We haven't had a red candle on the weekly in over 4 months. If you look at the recent historicals, 5 months tends to be the upper maximum before some type of sell-off happens. I don't think this is going to persist another 3 months before there is some type of pull back.

CrazyRichAggie said:

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KT 90 said:

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CrazyRichAggie said:

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MARA on a nice run but she's got a lot a ground to make up...

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Are we expecting this to eventually get back to the $4 to $5 range where it had been? Or just a lotto stock and who knows?

I got in when it was cheap and went net free on the runup to $5+ previously. Then actually added a little more before ti took a plunge.

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I am hanging on to try and recovery my losses. I didn't get in that cheap...

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I got back in today....hoping that BTC climbs back to 12K

Awesome thanks guys

Ragoo said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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ETSY is on sale. Hoping into some 9/18 verticals.

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what makes you think this isn't just trying to catch a falling knife?

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I might be.

But I like how each time the weekly chart comes back to the 8wk ema it runs from it. It touched off this week.

Looking for ROKU advice. Own it at 98, with 9/18 strike 130 calls sold against it. Buy them back and take the loss, roll them out, or ??

I have mine cover at $160 out to 9/18/2022. Got me $50+ in premium. Basically banked a yearly return on the shares with the premium. Don't need to worry about the stock. Break even in $210 or so.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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If you want a dose of reality, take a look at the SPX/NDX weekly and monthly charts, or even the daily. We are a staggering distance away from the 5EMA and 21 EMA. For Nasdaq, on the daily, a 21 EMA reconnect is a 600 point dump.

We haven't had a red candle on the weekly in over 4 months. If you look at the recent historicals, 5 months tends to be the upper maximum before some type of sell-off happens. I don't think this is going to persist another 3 months before there is some type of pull back.

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Not with the election around the corner. That's going to cause blips for sure.

The inflation initiative will force cash into the market (tons of cash has been on the sidelines). Everything is going to keep getting more expensive.

BTFD, at least until the mortgage deferments and bail outs start to expire.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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For all you budding butterflies.

Highest Gamma for AAPL 8/28 expiry



SPY 350
MSFT 225

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FYI:
APPL closed at 499.23
SPY closed at 350.58
MSFT closed at 228.91

Is it always this easy to pin?? I'm going to guess no, but that's some really interesting data.

wanderer said:

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aggiedaniel06 said:

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For all you budding butterflies.

Highest Gamma for AAPL 8/28 expiry



SPY 350
MSFT 225

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FYI:
APPL closed at 499.23
SPY closed at 350.58
MSFT closed at 228.91

Is it always this easy to pin?? I'm going to guess no, but that's some really interesting data.

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Aapl at the close was algo chaos. They wanted 500 or just below

topher06 said:

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Anyone else feel like the people who have been predicting a pullback since spy300 are just upset they've sat in cash this whole time? Or even worse... puts.

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Yeah, don't fight the trend. However with vix curling up still, multiple days in a row, it's not a question of if we pullback, but when...and if I post something that suggests a pullback, it is a kind reminder to all here to hedge.
As HP says, volatility is cheap (cheap hedge). SPXS calls work too.

Instead of losing money on a pullback, how bout we make some - Yes please moar!

BREwmaster said:

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topher06 said:

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Anyone else feel like the people who have been predicting a pullback since spy300 are just upset they've sat in cash this whole time? Or even worse... puts.

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Yeah, don't fight the trend. However with vix curling up still, multiple days in a row, it's not a question of if we pullback, but when...and if I post something that suggests a pullback, it is a kind reminder to all here to hedge.
As HP says, volatility is cheap (cheap hedge). SPXS calls work too.

Instead of losing money on a pullback, how bout we make some - Yes please moar!

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Yeah, VIX curve and SKEW both looking really bad. I pulled back significantly at close on Thursday. Missed some gains on Friday, but it was worth it to be largely out and safe. Especially wasn't going to leave it in there heading into the weekend.

Threw some at UVXY just in case.

BREwmaster said:

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Should those of us holding a lot of OSTK be concerned?

Possibly this?

It's old news but it was retweeted so just guessing

Marc says in the thread he's very bullish on the whole $OSTK tree. The next shoe to drop is more brokers carrying $OSTKO and $TZROP... along with SEC approval. He's hinting at something big that most folks aren't privy to - no idea what, but very bullish.