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59 South
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In reply to Brewmaster • 3:12p, 7/10/20
AG
BREwmaster said:
59 South said:
If we close around spy 317 or so today, that's an upside breakout for y'all asking about where we are going. I'll try to sneak away from Friday night family time to post a chart in a bit inspired by hidden pivots on the twitter (one of the follow worthy ones)...
this is one of the all time lowest volume days on SPY ever. I'm not convinced we're headed north from here, But I look forward to the chart sir!
Well here we are fam... I'm a person of integrity, a person who only looks at facts and also rando lines and colors on a screen to predict the future when I've had a tall boy Coors Light plus at least a bottle of the best wine South Africa has to offer... do what you will with this beautiful work of art...and have a fantastic weekend!


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59 South
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In reply to Cartographer • 3:13p, 7/10/20
AG
AMD's cup and handle is way better and safer, but I'm just a dude with a computer...
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59 South
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 3:14p, 7/10/20
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
I've created a monster. I encouraged my now 14 year old son to buy stocks a couple years back. He bought Sony, which he still owns. He has a nice little holding of JPM.

Today, he sold his cost basis $118 ROKU shares at $158 per share, and flipped half the money into Royal Dutch Shell A. He said he's keeping the other half of the money to buy ROKU back on the dip. When ROKU trended down from there and RDS.A trended up, the true monster was born.

Oh boy.
This is my hopeful destiny for at least one of my daughters...
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McInnis 03
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3:17p, 7/10/20
AG
Starting an early list for Monday looking at a few climbers who have been strong above the 8 day EMA that have now taken a dip to, or below the 21 day. Here's a few:

ABBV
IRBT
RDFN
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 3:17p, 7/10/20
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
I've created a monster. I encouraged my now 14 year old son to buy stocks a couple years back. He bought Sony, which he still owns. He has a nice little holding of JPM.

Today, he sold his cost basis $118 ROKU shares at $158 per share, and flipped half the money into Royal Dutch Shell A. He said he's keeping the other half of the money to buy ROKU back on the dip. When ROKU trended down from there and RDS.A trended up, the true monster was born.

Oh boy.
I taught my 9 year old daughter the 2:52 trade last Thursday.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to AGSmith • 3:20p, 7/10/20
AG
AGSmith said:
McInnis 03 said:
Closed the day with a 3175/3180 call spread on SPX. Bought it at almost even money when it was at 3177. Nice way to cap the day.

Pulled the trigger because the TICK was living in the positives, TRIN was dropping, VIX was dropping, and VOLSPD was increasing and all were in alignment for what would be a small run at the end.

Yay trading!
I need to learn the end of day SPY plays y'all do.
So much of my end of day stuff is based on the indicators leading to the close plus an awareness of MOC imbalance. My way of doing it is not likely what a "good" trader would do, but it's been working for me, so I think that counts for something.

A lot of these guys will actually place forecasted hedges or climbs a few days in advance buying them on the cheap and then selling what could be a max profit 15x-30x butterfly for a 4x-6x gain. Max is great, but the ones who can flip for 4 to 6 consistently makes for a pretty nice P/L. I'm not there yet.
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Cartographer
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In reply to 59 South • 3:22p, 7/10/20
No doubt about that but, this stock is well known and owned by the thread. Just trying to help some folks out
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Grown Pear
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3:24p, 7/10/20
AG
This sounds counterintuitive but I'd try and line up small Losing trade for your kids too. When you can teach a valuable lesson for only $10 or so that's the real winner and not when it's 10,000. They can see what it feels like to lose money and then evaluate the what and why and how and that risks are involved.

Having winners at first is a great feeling but can enforce a mentality that this is easy or that I'm better at this than others.

Ask me how I know ; ) LOL I took on unnecessary risks when I first started years ago
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Grown Pear • 3:25p, 7/10/20
AG
Grown Pear said:
This sounds counterintuitive but I'd try and line up small Losing trade for your kids too. When you can teach a valuable lesson for only $10 or so that's the real winner and not when it's 10,000. They can see what it feels like to lose money and then evaluate the what and why and how and that risks are involved.

Having winners at first is a great feeling but can enforce a mentality that this is easy or that I'm better at this than others.

Ask me how I know ; ) LOL I took on unnecessary risks when I first started years ago
That shouldn't be hard to "line up" for me.
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59 South
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In reply to Cartographer • 3:26p, 7/10/20
AG
Yea no worries, I just cringe sometimes when penny stocks are pumped so much here because I lost a used bass boat amount of money blindly following a few a few years ago not understanding the risk... especially pharmaceuticals.
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Grown Pear
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 3:28p, 7/10/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:
That shouldn't be hard to "line up" for me.

Yea just follow McInnis!

In other news AMZN closed at 3200 holy cow what a week-or two!!!
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Cartographer
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In reply to 59 South • 3:28p, 7/10/20
No doubt about that risk! It's a crazy game. I follow a few fintwit folks that I'm convinced are using their followers to pump at least 70% of their trades.
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Bird Poo
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In reply to 59 South • 3:41p, 7/10/20
AG
59 South said:
Yea no worries, I just cringe sometimes when penny stocks are pumped so much here because I lost a used bass boat amount of money blindly following a few a few years ago not understanding the risk... especially pharmaceuticals.
Ditto.
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59 South
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In reply to Grown Pear • 3:42p, 7/10/20
AG
Officially a double for me after a poorly timed but still fully right entry for me in May 2018! In hindsight I should've just gone all in and never looked at my accounts!
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Jet Black
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In reply to 59 South • 3:43p, 7/10/20
59 South said:
Yea no worries, I just cringe sometimes when penny stocks are pumped so much here because I lost a used bass boat amount of money blindly following a few a few years ago not understanding the risk... especially pharmaceuticals.


I can lose money?
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to Grown Pear • 3:43p, 7/10/20
Grown Pear said:
This sounds counterintuitive but I'd try and line up small Losing trade for your kids too. When you can teach a valuable lesson

I'd suggest something more along these lines to really get the point across:

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59 South
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In reply to Jet Black • 3:47p, 7/10/20
AG
Shiiiiiiii T. When you studied for years and finally got the courage plus FOMO mid January 2018 and went all in on risky stuff, you learn. You learn fast and never make those mistakes again. That is a true story about a "friend" of mine...
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59 South
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3:49p, 7/10/20
AG
Somebody obviously sold a ton of AMZN 3200 and NIO 15 covered calls expiring today!
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binsy
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3:51p, 7/10/20
AG
Is anyone in Tanker stocks here? Despite the uptick in oil demand, there may be a oil storage shortage again on the horizon. I've been looking at STNG and EURN. Would be a long term hold unless it took a crazy jump up.

Anyone more plugged into the industry here that could share some insight?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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3:52p, 7/10/20
AG
Ok since we're all talking about taxes maybe yall can help me with this scenario:

I currently have 40 shares of AMBA in a taxable account. Bought right after last earnings, currently down like 8%. I think I'd like to sell options on it, so I have a few options (see what i did there?):

Sell my 40 shares at a loss and sell a put covered with those proceeds and the cash that was securing my bac 24p this week (woohoo!).

Go ahead and buy another 60 shares and just sell a call on the 100shares I now have

sell a "half naked" call secured by my shares and cash to make up the difference?

I assume if I sell my shares at a loss, then start selling puts on the same equity, I get into squirrely wash sale territory. But our tax software connects directly to TD so maybe it'll just figure it out for me? Or is selling an option on an equity not "materially identical" to the equity itself...as long as I don't get assigned. Thinking I should probably just buy the shares and sell the calls at a strike that puts me in the black, and not worry about the little extra money I could have made selling puts
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AGSmith
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 3:53p, 7/10/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Bonfire1996 said:
I've created a monster. I encouraged my now 14 year old son to buy stocks a couple years back. He bought Sony, which he still owns. He has a nice little holding of JPM.

Today, he sold his cost basis $118 ROKU shares at $158 per share, and flipped half the money into Royal Dutch Shell A. He said he's keeping the other half of the money to buy ROKU back on the dip. When ROKU trended down from there and RDS.A trended up, the true monster was born.

Oh boy.
I taught my 9 year old daughter the 2:52 trade last Thursday.
What is the 2:52 trade?
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to binsy • 3:56p, 7/10/20
AG
binsy said:
Is anyone in Tanker stocks here? Despite the uptick in demand, there may be a oil storage shortage again on the horizon. I've been looking at STNG and EURN. Would be a long term hold unless it took a crazy jump up.

Anyone more plugged into the industry here that could share some insight?
Not in the industry, but I bought a mid-term strangle on NAT (Nordic American Tanker) a few weeks ago, thinking it was going to move or sink. Not much movement so far outside of today's 8%+ gain in price, but I have some room to run (October expiration).

I would be interested to hear industry expert opinions on this, as well.
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gig em 02
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In reply to Cartographer • 4:03p, 7/10/20
panduh bear said:
No doubt about that risk! It's a crazy game. I follow a few fintwit folks that I'm convinced are using their followers to pump at least 70% of their trades.
They use their private paid twitters to pump, then 5 minutes later they post it to their public twitter for a double pump. Then they laugh all the way to the bank.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to 59 South • 4:10p, 7/10/20
AG
59 South said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
great day today. QQQ is utter insanity. no other way to express it.
Here's the deal. It could be insanity like circa 1996 and we are building a tech bubble that has years left in it. So don't fight the trend, and make $$$$ and sell when the trend says sell! When 30k millionaire caves that'll be the bat signal! [just kidding around fam!]
Long post:

I traded in the tech bubble (I made money but if I had listened to my instincts to exit around the super bowl, I would have made a lot more). I knew a lot less then. What's different between then and now was that Joe Retail Trader was just learning about the internet and there was a 'the future is here' mindset. The smart money got in around 1995 and full on retail FOMO started around 1999 and continued to pick up steam with all of the new millenium excitement. My moment where I thought we had reached max insanity was around the superbowl when a bunch of no-name dot com entities with no revenue and no users were buying superbowl ad spots.

Right now feels like early 2000, especially with the distention away from the other indexes. There is a feeling that tech is invincible, but tech is only invincible if the rest of the economy is solid.
  • Microsoft is a B2B company. If companies they sell to are hurting or on the verge of bankruptcy, they won't buy or won't embark on their latest digital transformation project
  • Facebook is largely reliant on advertising revenue. Besides the reputational risk they have right now around who they let advertise and how they moderate content, if companies move away from advertising spend, it will directly impact FB
  • Google derives the lionshare of its revenue from Google Ads. See above on B2B spending going down
  • Apple gets most of its revenue from hardware sales. Will the Iphone 12 launch in September like it always does and will there be demand for a very expensive device? Services will not bridge the gap. I'm dying to hear Apple's results.
  • Netflix will continue to experience strong growth in a pandemic world, but I would point out that their P/E ratio is 111 and I'm unsure when they will have more new content
  • Amazon is the clear winner from Covid, although Walmart+ will be a threat because consumers now have a choice and they will make choices on availability and price; likely signing up for both Prime and Walmart+. Amazon is responsible for 40% of eCommerce and Walmart is responsible for 5%. I think they can both succeed. Bezos greatest risks are Azure over AWS and the government being upset and pursuing legal action with Amazon.

Don't get me wrong: trade while you can, just do it with your eyes open. This won't last much longer.
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docaggie
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4:15p, 7/10/20
AG
All I know is that every time I've ordered from WalMart online, I've had my credit card info stolen.

In other news... WIMI??
Talk about a rocket, thanks to Jack Ma presenting using their product.
Class of 1998;
Husband of an Aggie, Class of 1999;
Father to future Class of 2029 and 2031
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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59 South
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 4:16p, 7/10/20
AG
Damn 30k, we need to have a pint and discuss this sh*t. When you in London?

ETA: I'm the most open minded middle of the road person you'll probably ever meet. This is good stuff because it makes me think.

My thought process is that imo fundamentals rarely matter until later on when it's obvious. In real time, nobody gives an F. It's just price action driven. Good ole supply and demand. In the heat of the moment, throw the effin fundamentals out the window and ride the wave. For trading, I just ride the waves and when they break I gtfo and sit and wait for the bottom of the wave to get back on the ride. Rinse and repeat emotionless. Yea right that's hard AF. But that's the goal. You can't time it perfectly because you just can't unless you get lucky. But you can get pretty darn close and that's better than most.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to AggiePeeps06 • 4:27p, 7/10/20
AG
AggiePeeps06 said:
What gave you confidence that TSLA had further to run? With the recent run-up, who would've thought it would go up another 10% today? Crazy. I shorted it. Wei'll see what happens
Volume, momentum, and short interest. What you are doing is applying a rational lens to the problem: valuation is excessive, revenue doesn't support, it's run up this much, how can it keep going? Those are all completely valid and rational thoughts. What you did, in essence, is attempt to time the market.

Why it went higher today: most simply shorts getting squeezed and needing to cover. Shares were bought to cover shorts and it went up. I think this could get into $1,750 - $2,000 before a pull back. Watch this one, though, it could be the canary in the coal mine for the broader NDX to tank.

Also, buy put debit spreads so you don't totally lose your ass.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to 59 South • 4:27p, 7/10/20
AG
59 South said:
Damn 30k, we need to have a pint and discuss this sh*t. When you in London?

ETA: I'm the most open minded middle of the road person you'll probably ever meet. This is good stuff because it makes me think.

My thought process is that imo fundamentals rarely matter until later on when it's obvious. In real time, nobody gives an F. It's just price action driven. Good ole supply and demand. In the heat of the moment, throw the effin fundamentals out the window and ride the wave. For trading, I just ride the waves and when they break I gtfo and sit and wait for the bottom of the wave to get back on the ride. Rinse and repeat emotionless. Yea right that's hard AF. But that's the goal. You can't time it perfectly because you just can't unless you get lucky. But you can get pretty darn close and that's better than most.
In non Covid times, about once a month
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59 South
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 4:31p, 7/10/20
AG
F Covid. Well pm me if/when you ever head back this way...
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TecRecAg
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In reply to 59 South • 4:42p, 7/10/20
AG
My calls took a beating today. 7 days to go
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TheCellarDoor
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4:49p, 7/10/20
AG
My biggest holdings for the last month are AMZN, TSLA, ROKU, and BABA. Needless to say, it's been a fun couple of weeks. Net free on all of them and just wondering when the heck the pullback happens. I'm thinking I'll sell a little ahead of the earnings to capture the IV premium.

But on the TSLA one, what the heck do you do with a net free $50,000 option that doesn't expire for 18 months?? I looked at selling and buying a higher strike, but even going from the $1800 strike to the $2200 strike only drops the price to $37k. Any thoughts other than let er ride?
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59 South
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In reply to TecRecAg • 4:50p, 7/10/20
AG
You had to sell at least some at today's open explosion to previous highs!!! Options are not for the faint of heart. You have to have a plan and be ok with the risk/reward. Yesterday was an explosion. You never know how it goes after something like that.

The best advice I ever heard about options trading is that when you click buy, just assume and be ok with it going to zero. Just like a casino bet. Trading shares is one thing, but trading options is a total mind *****most of the time. That's just my experience.
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59 South
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In reply to TheCellarDoor • 4:52p, 7/10/20
AG
Damn bro, that's some first world problem sh*t you're gonna have to sort out for yourself
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to TheCellarDoor • 4:53p, 7/10/20
AG
TheCellarDoor said:
My biggest holdings for the last month are AMZN, TSLA, ROKU, and BABA. Needless to say, it's been a fun couple of weeks. Net free on all of them and just wondering when the heck the pullback happens. I'm thinking I'll sell a little ahead of the earnings to capture the IV premium.

But on the TSLA one, what the heck do you do with a net free $50,000 option that doesn't expire for 18 months?? I looked at selling and buying a higher strike, but even going from the $1800 strike to the $2200 strike only drops the price to $37k. Any thoughts other than let er ride?
Set a stop loss that is still profitable and that you would be comfortable with receiving in the event of a pull back and stop thinking about it for a while.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 4:54p, 7/10/20
AG
Shhhh, don't rain on the euphoria parade!

It's hilarious how in the last 4 years everyone is a stock market savant and TA specialist. We have been in a massive bull run since 2016 and buying the dip has paid off. There is no special skill to it.

At least that obnoxious DDTG dude doesn't claim he knows why stocks only go up, just that they do.

We were at the tail end of a massive bull run, with record low unemployment and suddenly Covid allows for another 3 Trillion dollars to be injected into the stock market. That money is what we are seeing here. As seen in the Fed balance sheet vs stock market recovery chart that I posted, the moment the printing stops, the velocity dies. This is the only reason equities keep going up. In a healthy economy, productivity increase is what drives higher prices.

I cut my teeth in the financial crisis. My second year on the job, we had traders not show up to work because they killed themselves. They kept buying those initial dips in '08 and then the bottom fell out in September and the rest is history. I've also heard stories of '99 and '87, but of course this time its different.

Also, in case you are wondering why AAPL, MSFT, AMZN... just keep floating up and up, the swiss bank and other central banks have been buying US large cap tech at a record pace. They do this as a means of pegging their currencies to the US dollar, and these names are as good as buying gold.

One more thing, why is TSLA running up like crazy? They are about be included into the S&P500, and everyone is front running that. Once in, they will enjoy the non-stop passive flows that come from being in the index.

I can go on and on but I'll stop here.
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