aggiedaniel06 said:
I can go on and on but I'll stop here.
I dunno, I was enjoying reading that. Feel free to continue!
Stock Markets
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Last: 4 hrs ago by sts7049
I dunno, I was enjoying reading that. Feel free to continue!
Agreed.
Looking for some advice here. I'm wanting to issue some covered calls on LEN but not sure the best strike and expiration to maximize it. I'd prefer it not get called out, but if it runs up enough, then I'd be fine with it obviously. Lately I think it's been trending in a darvas (some confirmation on that would be good) but it's also had a good run up in general.
Home building has been strong throughout the virus but I also worry late Q3 through the end of the year it could struggle. Unemployment isn't going to go back to 3% anytime soon so I think we'll start to see more foreclosures late in the year once PPP is gone, banks stop accepting delaying mortgage and rent payments and other unemployment benefits revert to how it used to be. I think this is going to crunch the housing market (side note: vacation properties could be a steal late in the year since no one is traveling and booking up all these vrbo/airbnb properties).
This is the best I can do on attempting to chart it for y'all. I'm not sure how to get multiple EMA's on the chart yet. Any advice is appreciated.
Home building has been strong throughout the virus but I also worry late Q3 through the end of the year it could struggle. Unemployment isn't going to go back to 3% anytime soon so I think we'll start to see more foreclosures late in the year once PPP is gone, banks stop accepting delaying mortgage and rent payments and other unemployment benefits revert to how it used to be. I think this is going to crunch the housing market (side note: vacation properties could be a steal late in the year since no one is traveling and booking up all these vrbo/airbnb properties).
This is the best I can do on attempting to chart it for y'all. I'm not sure how to get multiple EMA's on the chart yet. Any advice is appreciated.
This is moving in a generally upward channel that has started to flat line (obvious). I think if you want to sell covered calls, I would choose calls that are around the upper ATR band and I would probably choose the weekly variant. The stock is trading above its 200 MA, 8 EMA, and 21 EMA. The 8 EMA is also beginning to pull away from the 21 EMA, which signifies a bullish pattern. I would sell the calls when the 8 EMA is beginning to trend back towards the 21 EMA, unless you don't care about assignment happening.
Maybe sell the weekly 70C next week.
Maybe sell the weekly 70C next week.
Serious question (and I promise I'm not flaming just genuinely curious) for you bearish fist shaking people about Covid, civil war, alien invasions, dollar collapse, etc.... What if I told you that my really "cool" revolutionary "algo" triggers if we have 2 consecutive daily spy closes under all 3 of the 8/21/50 daily emas, selling out to 100% cash? What if I told ya that if we get 2 consecutive closes above all 3 of those it buys back in 100% equities until all 3 are lost for 2 consecutive days? Rinse and repeat into eternity.
I really am curious as to why anyone on either side fights price momentum? If we're going up with consistent momentum why would you short, and if we're going down with consistent momentum, why would you go long until a price momentum reversal is obvious? It just seems so clear to me that "smart money" just robs ignorant retail and stubborn fundamentalists (on both sides) until they cry uncle and capitulate. Then they pounce and F you in the you know what. This is stock market 101. I really don't give half a sh*t about fundamentals, politics, personal emotions, world peace, etc etc when it comes to the market. To me that does nothing but distract me from price action.
So serious question for the more experienced crowd, am I crazy? Am I missing something?
I really am curious as to why anyone on either side fights price momentum? If we're going up with consistent momentum why would you short, and if we're going down with consistent momentum, why would you go long until a price momentum reversal is obvious? It just seems so clear to me that "smart money" just robs ignorant retail and stubborn fundamentalists (on both sides) until they cry uncle and capitulate. Then they pounce and F you in the you know what. This is stock market 101. I really don't give half a sh*t about fundamentals, politics, personal emotions, world peace, etc etc when it comes to the market. To me that does nothing but distract me from price action.
So serious question for the more experienced crowd, am I crazy? Am I missing something?
Name does Not check out!TheCellarDoor said:
My biggest holdings for the last month are AMZN, TSLA, ROKU, and BABA. Needless to say, it's been a fun couple of weeks. Net free on all of them and just wondering when the heck the pullback happens. I'm thinking I'll sell a little ahead of the earnings to capture the IV premium.
But on the TSLA one, what the heck do you do with a net free $50,000 option that doesn't expire for 18 months?? I looked at selling and buying a higher strike, but even going from the $1800 strike to the $2200 strike only drops the price to $37k. Any thoughts other than let er ride?
I should also point out the stock is in a daily squeeze. watch that.$30,000 Millionaire said:
This is moving in a generally upward channel that has started to flat line (obvious). I think if you want to sell covered calls, I would choose calls that are around the upper ATR band and I would probably choose the weekly variant. The stock is trading above its 200 MA, 8 EMA, and 21 EMA. The 8 EMA is also beginning to pull away from the 21 EMA, which signifies a bullish pattern. I would sell the calls when the 8 EMA is beginning to trend back towards the 21 EMA, unless you don't care about assignment happening.
Maybe sell the weekly 70C next week.
Can't answer that but, if anyone is interested, the A&M hate crime hoax has just started going national.
That's why I enjoy this thread - a monkey could have made money throwing darts in this market the last 3 months but everyone is just happy everyone is making money and learning.
daniel06, so when do you think we see a dip or complete fall off a cliff?
Ahem, can't we all just get along?
Vision 2020 really didn't pan out the way they planned!
Vision 2020 really didn't pan out the way they planned!
Thank you. Appreciate the advice.
Yeah, I feel like it's going to continue up over the next couple of weeks. I was contemplating finding a strike in the $80s for later in the year if the premium was worth it. I think it may run up and get near there over the next couple of months but then maybe retreat with any unfavorable housing news that comes out.$30,000 Millionaire said:I should also point out the stock is in a daily squeeze. watch that.$30,000 Millionaire said:
This is moving in a generally upward channel that has started to flat line (obvious). I think if you want to sell covered calls, I would choose calls that are around the upper ATR band and I would probably choose the weekly variant. The stock is trading above its 200 MA, 8 EMA, and 21 EMA. The 8 EMA is also beginning to pull away from the 21 EMA, which signifies a bullish pattern. I would sell the calls when the 8 EMA is beginning to trend back towards the 21 EMA, unless you don't care about assignment happening.
Maybe sell the weekly 70C next week.
I generally wouldn't sell long horizon covered calls on a stock that will go up unless you are OK with being assigned.
I'll speak for myself: I'm a value investor primarily and I like to see price growth related to opportunity, revenue and earnings expansion or transactions, trends, and events that justify the price. I don't like bubbles because a lot of people lose. In the current circumstance, I am disgusted with the overwhelming central bank intervention because it's irresponsible and is putting a huge bill on future generations for a little bit less pain now. The nuance for me is I am a permabull, but I am not bullish at any value.
I'll answer your question.59 South said:
Serious question (and I promise I'm not flaming just genuinely curious) for you bearish fist shaking people about Covid, civil war, alien invasions, dollar collapse, etc.... What if I told you that my really "cool" revolutionary "algo" triggers if we have 2 consecutive daily spy closes under all 3 of the 8/21/50 daily emas, selling out to 100% cash? What if I told ya that if we get 2 consecutive closes above all 3 of those it buys back in 100% equities until all 3 are lost for 2 consecutive days? Rinse and repeat into eternity.
I really am curious as to why anyone on either side fights price momentum? If we're going up with consistent momentum why would you short, and if we're going down with consistent momentum, why would you go long until a price momentum reversal is obvious? It just seems so clear to me that "smart money" just robs ignorant retail and stubborn fundamentalists (on both sides) until they cry uncle and capitulate. Then they pounce and F you in the you know what. This is stock market 101. I really don't give half a sh*t about fundamentals, politics, personal emotions, world peace, etc etc when it comes to the market. To me that does nothing but distract me from price action.
So serious question for the more experienced crowd, am I crazy? Am I missing something?
1. When SPY closed below whatever MA's you like to refer to in March, did you exit your ROKU, AMD, etc... positions and go to 100% cash? Reading your posts, it seems that you didn't. So why didn't you do that then?
2. The public news cycle doesn't matter. Sure, short term the algos get triggered but that's all just narrative for the big boys to justify their moves. But on the other hand it's not completely useless, when the Covid news came out of China in February, we went heavy cash and heavy into cruiseline puts.
3. When you have 9 figures AUM, you don't hold straight equities. And you can't dump them or buy them on MA's. It's a complex process of balancing your Value At Risk and yield targets. Institutions don't take postions on MA's, that all retail.
4. Fundamentals matter in the long run. My entry into AMD in my personal portfolio is $2 in 2015 before anyone was talking about AMD (Almost Dead as it has been known). Now everyone thinks it's the future. We studied their product pipeline, their excellent CEO and their market potential before we entered. The MA's looked like dog**** when we entered.
5. There are two types of money that enters the stock market, discretionary and passive. The passive money keeps flowing in no matter what happens (think pension funds, 401k's, etc). What's going to happen when we enter an environment when there is net outflow from passive funds. For example, baby boomer retires cashing out 401'k, while millenial working at starbucks doesn't have one. You need the economy to be doing well.
Don't stop.....MOARRRRR
I need to sleep on this. You seem smarter than me. Let me know when you come to London. Pints and gin n tonics on me!
He has more in common with you and I than you know.
#Zachry
#Zachry
Very impressed if someone was able to:AGSmith said:
I need to find these plays
1) Hold all of those contracts through today - TSLA didn't break $1,500 until the last hour of trading and was actually down at one point today before finishing up 10.78%
2) Exercise $300,000,000 to obtain their 200,000 shares
McInnis 03 said:
Starting an early list for Monday looking at a few climbers who have been strong above the 8 day EMA that have now taken a dip to, or below the 21 day. Here's a few:
ABBV
IRBT
RDFN
Rdfn may have reversed, it makes me nervous. The reversal is known as LOHP, or low of high point.
High of the long uptrend occurred Monday, the low that day was 41.99. The next day closed well below the LOHP, this is a reversal signal to possibly go short. You'd set your stop at the high of the high bar (43.9). If this doesn't trigger in two days, each day after you can move your stop to the high that is two bars back on the daily.
RDFN hasn't returned to the uptrend yet. It could be a legit reversal, or just a breather......the other two aren't as concerning to me.
Funny I'll just start answering #1 a bit. I happened to be in the middle of a total mess life crisis for the whole month of March so I didn't do anything because I honestly didn't even look at the market. Insane timing to be honest. Did not own amd yet, just bought late June first time ever after months of research and technicals study. ROKU was bought at 44 in '18. AMZN in 18 as well in 1500s. I was safe but due to life circumstances, I didn't even look because I knew what I owned was ok medium/long term. SQ and JD were bought coming up. Both have doubled. I'm about the only person on here who puts it all out there. Thought I could encourage transparency but so far not catching on with you guys. Go read my post to start the other thread on 6/23 and look at returns. Other was NIO that I've held since '19.
What do you think of NIO at $15ish?
I'd be playing 1 contact there
Jet Black said:
What do you think of NIO at $15ish?
Shorts are going to hit sooner or later
McInnis 03 said:
He has more in common with you and I than you know.
#Zachry
Just how many engineers are on here posing as finance bros?!?
I'm not trying to hammer you, but by your own accord, only TA matters, everything else is just noise. So on that account, you should have liquated your portfolio, no matter what was going on. And you should have bought back all those positions, only once the TA looked good again.
However, you just held on and did nothing special, and still are massively profitable. Was it your TA skills that did that or the fact that Jerome "Jesus" Powell, resurrected your portfolio? The point is that in a bull market like we have been in since the financial crisis, you will make money regardless.
However, there will come a time of lean years in the economy and thereby the market and then suddenly it won't be as easy to make money in the market.
Like the saying goes on Wall Street, "There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders
However, you just held on and did nothing special, and still are massively profitable. Was it your TA skills that did that or the fact that Jerome "Jesus" Powell, resurrected your portfolio? The point is that in a bull market like we have been in since the financial crisis, you will make money regardless.
However, there will come a time of lean years in the economy and thereby the market and then suddenly it won't be as easy to make money in the market.
Like the saying goes on Wall Street, "There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders
all of us59 South said:McInnis 03 said:
He has more in common with you and I than you know.
#Zachry
Just how many engineers are on here posing as finance bros?!?
Dude, you just need to stop. 99% of the time I would have been totally out and bought back in after 8+21 was reclaimed.
This isn't a pissing contest. We are all just trying to make money and help others make money and make lives better without the "hate" that is all the rage in today's world. You have no idea of my personal situation during that time so just drop it please.
This isn't a pissing contest. We are all just trying to make money and help others make money and make lives better without the "hate" that is all the rage in today's world. You have no idea of my personal situation during that time so just drop it please.
At this point buy each other a drink and chat about it! We're all here for 1 purpose, make money and/or grow our retirement.59 South said:
Dude, you just need to stop. 99% of the time I would have been totally out and bought back in after 8+21 was reclaimed.
This isn't a pissing contest. We are all just trying to make money and help others make money and make lives better without the "hate" that is all the rage in today's world. You have no idea of my personal situation during that time so just drop it please.
architect here, amongst you enginerds apparently!Ragoo said:all of us59 South said:McInnis 03 said:
He has more in common with you and I than you know.
#Zachry
Just how many engineers are on here posing as finance bros?!?
The going to zero thing I know. Absolutely how I enter every option trade. I'm not scared. Crazier things have happened in 7 days.
Also important to note that I hit base hits all day. Max 3 contracts on whatever I enter.
Also important to note that I hit base hits all day. Max 3 contracts on whatever I enter.
He's not dogging you, man. He's just saying there's more to the broader Market than MAs and momentum, and sticking to a strict MA strategy would have folks out of the Market on winners over the last 6 months.
He and 30k are essentially saying the same thing about this massively mismatched market vs. economy. This time is not different, we're just not there yet.
He and 30k are essentially saying the same thing about this massively mismatched market vs. economy. This time is not different, we're just not there yet.