M.C. Swag said:
mavsfan4ever said:
In taxable accounts, how do y'all determine whether to keep stocks over a year or not. For instance, I'm up big on Amazon and Roku this year. I feel like I should just keep them for at least a year to get the lower tax rate because, on average, I'll make more from the better tax rate than selling when they are high and locking in profits.
Obviously, they could fall and do away with all of my profits before the end of the year. But in the long run, when factoring in all of the trades, I feel like keeping them over a year is the more +EV play.
Am I looking at anything wrong? This may be a better question for the swing trade thread.
Just depends on your goals.
Personally I'm holding AMZN for as long as I can but that's because I don't have any use for the funds in the short term (<5 years). If you think you'll need the money from your brokerage account anytime in the near future (especially in the next calendar year), I can see the logic of taking the profits. Otherwise, why sell? What is stopping AMZN in the next 5 years? 10? 20? I'll be acquiring as much as I can for the foreseeable future.
My only concern is to make the most +EV play in the long run, which means I'm not worried about a certain trade not working out. I want to make the most +EV decision when considering all of my hundreds/thousands of trades over the upcoming years. I'm also not worried about risk on a single trade. I don't need the money and won't be pulling it out. I basically treat my taxable account like another retirement account. If I sold anything, I would just invest it in something else.
AMZN and ROKU are probably bad examples for my question because I agree that those are long term holds.
But in general, no matter what the stocks are, isn't it better in the long run to hold them for over 1 year, as opposed to selling after 3-4 months to lock in profit? You would have to be very confident in your trading abilities to make up for the increase in taxes. I don't see most people being able to beat the tax rate in the long run. I see holding for 1 year as opposed to under 1 year as basically getting a free 10-15% on your money.
I'm not a day trader, so it seems like holding for over a year is the smart play, even if I "feel" like a certain stock is at its peak.
So hypothetically, If I buy stock ABC and it goes up 80% over 5 months, I think it's likely smart to keep it for over a year even if I feel like it may be at its peak. In the long run over hundreds/thousands of trades, I think the tax benefit (plus the chance that the stock could keep rising) outweighs the possible benefit of selling at the stock's peak and reinvesting the money into something else. It seems like the investor would have to be very good about selling at the top and using that money in another +EV investment in order to beat the increased tax rate.
Just want to make sure I'm not missing anything from the tax side of things. Sorry for the rambling.