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22,231,862 Views | 225112 Replies | Last: 4 hrs ago by Brian Earl Spilner
McInnis 03
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La Bamba said:

So V recovery it is?
As much as my terrible mind at this wants to say "well duh, isn't it now obvious?!"....I can't help but think of all the earnings we still have to get through along with manufacturing reports, etc.......once the periphery numbers start to come back as ugly as the unemployment numbers do.....perhaps that's the food that'll get the truth digested?

Otherwise it's all a fairy tale and we might as well throw every dollar we have into the VTI and just come along for the damn ride.
oldarmy1
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I generally wouldn't have posted to sell some JPM calls but when they rise that high hours after entering you just have to take some off I think. Still, it looks good for those to go into the money.

INTC calls also. Eve DIS calls moved off $0.23 ending day $0.30. We do run up above $290 then DIS will more than pay for expired worthless shot and today's entries.

It looks ready to breakout.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Grown Pear said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

Something odd is that the Russell 1000, which is even smaller cap, is tracking closer to the larger cap indexes. It has at least come close to 50% retracement from the bottom, while the Russell 2000 hasn't. I guess there are some small-not-micro cap companies that must be way down in order for this to happen?
The Russell 1000 is much more closely aligned with Large cap stocks while the Russell 2000 is to smaller cap. Of the Russell 3000 stocks, the 1000 is the top 1000 while 2000 is the bottom 2000.

Mid and Small Cap stocks have been beaten down substantially more than the Large caps, and their "recoveries" thus far aren't significantly higher if at all. yet.

What's interesting and this is just one data point in a very specific time period but I sold my mid cap and small cap blend etfs and split those amounts 50/50 into the respective growth and value funds to stay exposed.

Bottom line is Growth is substantially outperforming Value (and has been). So this may be part of what's going on with what y'all are looking at.

Since 4/13:
VOT (Mid cap growth) +5.77%
VOE (Mid cap value) +0.79%
VBK (Small cap growth) +4.47%
VBR (Small cap value) +.018%

I always thought the Russell 1000 was micro cap, basically the leftover companies from Russell 3000 that aren't included in the Russell 3000?
Charismatic Megafauna
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OA I searched and searched for your strategy on hedging and found where you recommended buying ones that were ~40c a couple bucks out, but I can't find your post that suggested what proportion of the portfolio you recommended putting in hedges?

That said, I had orders in to try and scalp some monday expiry calls or puts depending which way the 2:50 bars went and ended up having neither fill, but it feels nice to go into the weekend with some cash
gougler08
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Grown Pear said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

Something odd is that the Russell 1000, which is even smaller cap, is tracking closer to the larger cap indexes. It has at least come close to 50% retracement from the bottom, while the Russell 2000 hasn't. I guess there are some small-not-micro cap companies that must be way down in order for this to happen?
The Russell 1000 is much more closely aligned with Large cap stocks while the Russell 2000 is to smaller cap. Of the Russell 3000 stocks, the 1000 is the top 1000 while 2000 is the bottom 2000.

Mid and Small Cap stocks have been beaten down substantially more than the Large caps, and their "recoveries" thus far aren't significantly higher if at all. yet.

What's interesting and this is just one data point in a very specific time period but I sold my mid cap and small cap blend etfs and split those amounts 50/50 into the respective growth and value funds to stay exposed.

Bottom line is Growth is substantially outperforming Value (and has been). So this may be part of what's going on with what y'all are looking at.

Since 4/13:
VOT (Mid cap growth) +5.77%
VOE (Mid cap value) +0.79%
VBK (Small cap growth) +4.47%
VBR (Small cap value) +.018%

I always thought the Russell 1000 was micro cap, basically the leftover companies from Russell 3000 that aren't included in the Russell 3000?


Other way around, it's the top 1000 companies by market cap
$30,000 Millionaire
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La Bamba said:

So V recovery it is?
I'm f-ing disgusted with what's happening (propping up zombie companies, printing, irrational exuberance about the virus restrictions lifting) . I'm wondering if we don't have any retreat until we hit SPY 300. I am going to hold my large SPXU short position for at least another month before I cut my losses on it, but I'm down 25% on it. I think we'll get some downside relief, but maybe 2600 is as low as things will be allowed to go.

I still have a short thesis, but I am really questioning myself.
AgEng06
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oldarmy1 said:

Bought INTC $65 May 15th Calls
Just curious, what was the premium on these when you bought?
Charismatic Megafauna
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don't trim your whole position or you will have some serious ragrets when it pans out. I bailed on my tvix position in January at $40/share. Would have turned into something like 18k if I'd held strong (and timed the top, which of course is impossible)
Exsurge Domine
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One thing that I think you guys need to remember is that fundamental analysis is largely a thing of the past and things haven't made sense for a long long while, well before Covid.
Take TSLA for example, they've never had a profitable year, yet they overtook Ford in Market Cap years ago. We aren't in a bubble because our entire reality is a bubble. Zoom has a PE ratio of 1700, and a market cap higher than General Mills.

Everything trades off hype, some vague idea of technology, and implication. Yes, I'm still looking at charts, but I'm mainly doing so because I think other people are still looking at charts and it still influences pricing. I don't care how many bullish engulfing candles there are, Elon Musk can tweet "brb going base jumping " and 100 billion dollars of value can vanish.
Ragoo
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Tesla has a greater market cap than Ford at 6x less revenue.

Let alone Ford made roughly $7billion while Tesla lost $800+MM
AgCPA95
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gougler08 said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

Grown Pear said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

Something odd is that the Russell 1000, which is even smaller cap, is tracking closer to the larger cap indexes. It has at least come close to 50% retracement from the bottom, while the Russell 2000 hasn't. I guess there are some small-not-micro cap companies that must be way down in order for this to happen?
The Russell 1000 is much more closely aligned with Large cap stocks while the Russell 2000 is to smaller cap. Of the Russell 3000 stocks, the 1000 is the top 1000 while 2000 is the bottom 2000.

Mid and Small Cap stocks have been beaten down substantially more than the Large caps, and their "recoveries" thus far aren't significantly higher if at all. yet.

What's interesting and this is just one data point in a very specific time period but I sold my mid cap and small cap blend etfs and split those amounts 50/50 into the respective growth and value funds to stay exposed.

Bottom line is Growth is substantially outperforming Value (and has been). So this may be part of what's going on with what y'all are looking at.

Since 4/13:
VOT (Mid cap growth) +5.77%
VOE (Mid cap value) +0.79%
VBK (Small cap growth) +4.47%
VBR (Small cap value) +.018%

I always thought the Russell 1000 was micro cap, basically the leftover companies from Russell 3000 that aren't included in the Russell 3000?


Other way around, it's the top 1000 companies by market cap
^This. And here's how the others are categorized:

Russell 3000E Index Companies #1-4,000 or 100% of the eligible securities
Russell 3000 Index Companies #1-3,000
Russell Top 50 Mega Cap Index Companies #1-50
Russell Top 200 Index Companies #1-200
Russell Top 500 Index Companies # 1-500
Russell 1000 Index Companies #1-1,000
Russell Midcap Index Companies #201-1,000
Russell 2000 Index Companies #1,001-3,000
Russell 2500 Index Companies #501-3,000
Russell Microcap Index Companies #2,001-4,000
oldarmy1
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AgEng06 said:

oldarmy1 said:

Bought INTC $65 May 15th Calls
Just curious, what was the premium on these when you bought?


$1.25-$1.31 ended up average $1.29
AgEng06
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Thanks! I'm considering following you on this one. Looks like it's $1.34 right now.
$30,000 Millionaire
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NRD09 said:

don't trim your whole position or you will have some serious ragrets when it pans out. I bailed on my tvix position in January at $40/share. Would have turned into something like 18k if I'd held strong (and timed the top, which of course is impossible)
Agreed and good point. I will evaluate where we are at that point.
Maximus_Meridius
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Exsurge Domine said:

I don't care how many bullish engulfing candles there are, Elon Musk can tweet "brb going base jumping " and 100 billion dollars of value can vanish.
I seriously lost it with this comment.
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AgEng06
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Yes, AH orders go in as a limit order and will fill as soon as the limit is met on Monday morning.
AggiePeeps06
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Anyone have any idea how USO was slightly down today even though oil is up 25%?
ProgN
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I saw oil as being down today. I could be wrong because I don't follow it too much
SW AG80
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Exsurge Domine said:

One thing that I think you guys need to remember is that fundamental analysis is largely a thing of the past and things haven't made sense for a long long while, well before Covid.
Take TSLA for example, they've never had a profitable year, yet they overtook Ford in Market Cap years ago. We aren't in a bubble because our entire reality is a bubble. Zoom has a PE ratio of 1700, and a market cap higher than General Mills.

Everything trades off hype, some vague idea of technology, and implication. Yes, I'm still looking at charts, but I'm mainly doing so because I think other people are still looking at charts and it still influences pricing. I don't care how many bullish engulfing candles there are, Elon Musk can tweet "brb going base jumping " and 100 billion dollars of value can vanish.
Unfortunately, I think you are right. And have thought so for a few years. And all this scares me, but not enough to drive me away. I am close to retirement so I hope I do not regret it.
Exsurge Domine
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AggiePeeps06 said:

Anyone have any idea how USO was slightly down today even though oil is up 25%?


It's not up 25% it's rolling to the next contract

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3561657-u-s-oil-fund-to-move-big-wti-position-market-sours
Bird Poo
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Exsurge Domine said:

One thing that I think you guys need to remember is that fundamental analysis is largely a thing of the past and things haven't made sense for a long long while, well before Covid.
Take TSLA for example, they've never had a profitable year, yet they overtook Ford in Market Cap years ago. We aren't in a bubble because our entire reality is a bubble. Zoom has a PE ratio of 1700, and a market cap higher than General Mills.

Everything trades off hype, some vague idea of technology, and implication. Yes, I'm still looking at charts, but I'm mainly doing so because I think other people are still looking at charts and it still influences pricing. I don't care how many bullish engulfing candles there are, Elon Musk can tweet "brb going base jumping " and 100 billion dollars of value can vanish.
This is a very good post. Hell, most the traders on this board follow volume from the big leagues. Not fundamentals.
AnyOtherName
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$19B for Farmers and ranchers... what do we buy?
AggiePeeps06
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Rookie mistake. Thanks!
La Bamba
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McInnis 03 said:

La Bamba said:

So V recovery it is?
As much as my terrible mind at this wants to say "well duh, isn't it now obvious?!"....I can't help but think of all the earnings we still have to get through along with manufacturing reports, etc.......once the periphery numbers start to come back as ugly as the unemployment numbers do.....perhaps that's the food that'll get the truth digested?

Otherwise it's all a fairy tale and we might as well throw every dollar we have into the VTI and just come along for the damn ride.

I'm done thinking that earnings and PMI matters. Honestly. All that matters is COVID numbers going down and starting up. As long as that's not interrupted, it's buy the dips for me.
OverSeas AG
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Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
FrioAg 00
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Was nice to see, but mostly just got back what it lost since Thursday.

I think it's a big bargain, but one that won't pay off for a good while.
FrontPorchAg
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?
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
thirdcoast
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Exsurge Domine said:

One thing that I think you guys need to remember is that fundamental analysis is largely a thing of the past and things haven't made sense for a long long while, well before Covid.
Take TSLA for example, they've never had a profitable year, yet they overtook Ford in Market Cap years ago. We aren't in a bubble because our entire reality is a bubble. Zoom has a PE ratio of 1700, and a market cap higher than General Mills.

Everything trades off hype, some vague idea of technology, and implication. Yes, I'm still looking at charts, but I'm mainly doing so because I think other people are still looking at charts and it still influences pricing. I don't care how many bullish engulfing candles there are, Elon Musk can tweet "brb going base jumping " and 100 billion dollars of value can vanish.


I think that's why they segregate "growth" from "value" stocks. Growth stocks reinvest everything to advance their biz and gain market share. The market thinks Tesla may take over the automobile industry and the energy network that fuels elec cars, while Ford will maintain or lose market share over years.
IrishTxAggie
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A suggestion I'll make to some of y'all that are becoming more actively trading; pay yourself. If you've been doing well, take a little out and put it back into your pocket. Don't keep pressing your luck by taking more risks and over leveraging yourself. I've made it a point that for any week I'm profitable, I take some out and pay myself.
khaos288
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IrishTxAggie said:

A suggestion I'll make to some of y'all that are becoming more actively trading; pay yourself. If you've been doing well, take a little out and put it back into your pocket. Don't keep pressing your luck by taking more risks and over leveraging yourself. I've made it a point that for any week I'm profitable, I take some out and pay myself.


Great advice. Have a big week? Set goals and stick to paying yourself on the number.
AgShaun00
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IrishTxAggie said:

A suggestion I'll make to some of y'all that are becoming more actively trading; pay yourself. If you've been doing well, take a little out and put it back into your pocket. Don't keep pressing your luck by taking more risks and over leveraging yourself. I've made it a point that for any week I'm profitable, I take some out and pay myself.
HOOKERS AND BLOW IN VEGAS?
FrontPorchAg
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Hookers have to stay 6ft away
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Mtn_Guide said:

Hookers have to stay 6ft away

I think just their head has to stay 6 feet away from your head, right? I can work with that.
Exsurge Domine
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Mtn_Guide said:

Hookers have to stay 6ft away

I think just their head has to stay 6 feet away from your head, right? I can work with that.


How would that work? you'd have to be in to feetplay with extremely tall women
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