hedge said:

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cpt kirk was great in that movie

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Dumbledore calrisian really saved the north from Frodo

claym711 said:

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Going to be quite a while before VIX <14 doldrums return.

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I have the November 18p

What are y'all's thoughts on XOM? I, like an inexperienced trader, bought a large amount (relative but large to me) of shares of XOM at $46 on Friday when O&G was shooting up. Should I look for an exit opportunity and possibly take a small loss or hold it for long term?

^I kid Spaceship!

CSTXAg92 said:

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Spaceship said:

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Happy Easter y'all! Thanks for all the good learning opportunities on this thread.

I'm a new, conservative investor but up 8% in past 3 weeks thanks to the sages on this site.

Now, can someone please explain to me what a model T is?

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READ THROUGH ALL 1,290 PAGES OF THIS DAMN THREAD AND FIGURE IT OUT ON YOUR OWN OR YOU DON'T DESERVE TO KNOW WHAT MODEL T IS. OR MAKE A SINGLE NICKLE IN THE MARKET.

/S59

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IMO, you'll make money. Not saying it goes to 18 but you should make money on the decline

If the Fed had an IPO, what would it be at ?

2.......F***ing Much

I have a couple questions for you Model T disciples:

1. How do you "spot" the bottom and turn for retracement? Are there telltale signs based on volume or starting point or otherwise so you don't prematurely anticipate it?

2. Are there financial tools or websites you can use to screen for ripe Model T opportunities before they're fulfilled? Curious how to identity stocks with further "meat on the bone".

Thanks all!

Spaceship said:

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I have a couple questions for you Model T disciples:

1. How do you "spot" the bottom and turn for retracement? Are there telltale signs based on volume or starting point or otherwise so you don't prematurely anticipate it?

2. Are there financial tools or websites you can use to screen for ripe Model T opportunities before they're fulfilled? Curious how to identity stocks with further "meat on the bone".

Thanks all!

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You can use a couple of different tools, but as weird as it sounds, it's a lot of intuition and based on your comfort level. Now, I'm not talking about the "model-t" but Fibonacci levels paired with bollinger bands and price volume analysis. I typically look for a reversal to pierce the 23.6 Fibonacci resistance level for a few days and continue moving towards the .382 level before I believe it's a possible 50% retrace and not just a single band retrace. You can also look at the point of control and the VWAP to see how they mesh with your fib levels.

By intuition I mean if you see a lot of green candlesticks turning red, or vice versa, throw some Fibonacci levels on a chart and see how it behaves at the levels.

I use TD Ameritrade platform and subscriptions to trendspider and cheddarflow. TrendSpider is super useful for technical analysis as it automates a lot of stuff

thirdcoast said:

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I'm surprised how hesitant some Model T believers are in the continuation of a strong downward trend from this 50% retrace. I guess it's the strong Fed backstop that keeps many talking about holding long and putting on a "hedge", rather than a bigger rebalance to outright short. If not for frantic fed and congressional cash pumps, it's absurd for market to be valued at what it was about a year ago.

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Even though it's a manipulated market, that's the reality right now. The upside is that Government assistance is enough to keep things from flushing until we all get back to normal. I am positioned more bearish, with calls and long positions as a hedge but I don't think anyone really knows with much confidence which way this I'd headed.

Is this a good time to buy? Is it just completely unprecedented to not have a gut feeling?

All I know is that IF this turns into a Fed manipulated bull market before we get vaccine/antibody tests/re-opening, then it makes me think BitCoin may become a legit long term store of value. At some point, there should be a reckoning where companies settle into various risk tiers that can be valuated to some degree, maybe as Fed equity stake terms are realized. At moment it's a broad Fed fire hose of promises across entire industries. Even companies that were on verge of bankruptcy before CV19, have new life....that can't last forever.

coastsrs said:

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Is this a good time to buy? Is it just completely unprecedented to not have a gut feeling?

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I wouldn't buy right now at this price point, with the exception of automatic buying like 401K or sweeps. ~15% from all time highs with 17M unemployed and what will be depressed earnings. While the fed has unlimited ammo, I think the market will be less sensitive to fed moves

To be clear, not saying CCL is a great buy right now given the high risk, but basic laws of supply and demand says that that's normal behavior. If prices are low more people should want (or are able to) buy a good.

Also risk aversion would explain why a large number of people are carrying a small number of their (CCL's) shares, rather than a few people holding a lot when they were more valuable in the past. Basically, this means their shares are a lotto ticket to most investors, which is how you would hope the market would view them (respecting the risk). What would be worse is if the number of users didn't change or if they went down, while the number of shares in circulation stayed the same (they'd have to have good info, be crazy, or just investors who dont pay attention to their shares). In any case though, I think that's a normal phenomenon and showing good/compentant investor behavior.

On the bigger stock market view of things, given the current pandemic/increased risk, all users probably have a more diverse portfolio right now. Many are dipping into different stocks that they had no interest in before or could not afford previously. Again, this is to spread risk, but also because prices are low so it's a great time to buy no matter the stock!

ETA: To the original question on if it's a good time to invest or not - I sold a lot (two-thirds of my shares) yesterday due to the uncertainty of the market. I'm not a trading expert, but going off my gut and what other experienced traders have said on here, I felt it's a good time to sell off and monitor things some. If things trend up again Monday I will jump back in, but given the strange events I think its important to watch closely and to be ready to sell off at any moment. That's my plan at least. If things dump off again you should be safe to buy, as I don't think there are many more dips in the forecast. Just my opinion though.

So looks like airline earnings are coming up in the next couple of weeks, got to think those are going to be rough right? Seems like it makes sense to see the fallout from those and then hop in?

I am thinking about going SPY 260p 4/17 and 4/24

I'm sitting at about 20% cash and I'm about back to even on all my long positions in the retirement accounts. Thinking about taking them all to cash and buying the next dip, which I believe is coming soon. Thoughts?

If we have an up opening the $260 April 17 Puts should be $1.30 area. Definitely a worthwhile risk/reward, especially as a hedge.

oldarmy1 said:

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If we have an up opening the $260 April 17 Puts should be $1.30 area. Definitely a worthwhile risk/reward, especially as a hedge.

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agreed. I see a lot of open interest at this strike price too.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

oldarmy1 said:

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If we have an up opening the $260 April 17 Puts should be $1.30 area. Definitely a worthwhile risk/reward, especially as a hedge.

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I'm on the 5/15 $260P. I opened them at closing on Thursday. ES_F hit my target for a pullback.

Sound advice. Thx, OA. What would be the boards top 2 ETFs (Vanguard)? I notice one poster is a fan of VTI. I've got quite a bit in VOO.

Overseas - sounds like a good approach. I'll spend some more time this evening considering some of the same things.

IrishTxAggie said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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If we have an up opening the $260 April 17 Puts should be $1.30 area. Definitely a worthwhile risk/reward, especially as a hedge.

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I'm on the 5/15 $260P. I opened them at closing on Thursday. ES_F hit my target for a pullback.

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$7 seems so rich though

I bought 5wks of time too though. I may not get such a huge pay off by going short on short time, but I'm also less exposed to the theta.

Some SPXS in the $11-9 range may not be a bad idea in your 401K if you expect a dip. If that's too risky go with 2x or 1x ETFs.