If you add stochastic and bollinger bands you'll see the stochastic is now above 80 indicating a short term overbought indicator. It's also touching its upper bollinger band. That's why I bought some puts yesterday, anticipating a slight pullback. These 2 aren't foolproof but they can anticipate possible change in direction. If move is confirmed with the MACD, then confidence increases in said move.CSTXAg92 said:
Question for the Model T team:
Here's a chart of SPY from 2/18-4/9. Apparent downward trend. Fib/Model T lines applied...
- It would appear the 220 mark was a was a trend reversal.
- On 4/9 activity reached the 50% level of Fib.
Given this set of data, what are other observations you would gleen from the chart and what would you be on the lookout for going into trading next week?
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Auto insurance companies are sure earning a lot of goodwill by doing automatic refunds. Just got the email from Safeco.
Encompass emailed me too
CSTXAg92 said:
Question for the Model T team:
Here's a chart of SPY from 2/18-4/9. Apparent downward trend. Fib/Model T lines applied...
- It would appear the 220 mark was a was a trend reversal.
- On 4/9 activity reached the 50% level of Fib.
Given this set of data, what are other observations you would gleen from the chart and what would you be on the lookout for going into trading next week?
Yes I would agree with downward trend as well. The main issue I have with all of this right now, is with the huge artificial stimulus pumping the stocks up. Everything from the indicators makes me think a huge plunge is coming, but $8,000,000,000,000 of funny money is hard to shake off
ETA: but normally I'd like for further confirmation of moving towards the .618 or .382 to confirm whether a new trend or just retracement
Aggie95 said:
Boeing received a lot of attention at today's press conference. President basically said..."you can't let anything happen to Boeing". Up 3% today
If you listen closely, every time Trump talks about BA and need to "save them", he talks about what bad shape they were in (max etc) prior to CV19. To my biased opinion, he is likely hedging his comments Incase of Ch 11, in which ops, workers, and non-common stakeholders are all "saved." That's not even considering fact that both sides of Congress oppose a BA and GE bailout of execs and "wealthy shareholders" as Schumer puts it.
(See BA thread if you want all the Trump soundbites)
That was awesome. Really appreciate you doing that. Some really good info there. One question I would still have regarding the model T is what does it take to reach the "confirmation" on the reversal?oldarmy1 said:I started providing some stream of consciousness additions on the initial post. It's the easiest way for me to work, so let me know if it makes sense.Touchless said:
Also, given all of the questions asked on here regarding the Model T (myself included in the last month and a half), maybe OA would be gracious enough to throw a quick blurb in the OP and we can just refer others to the first post in the thread instead of having to re-explain it all the time. Just a thought given all of the discussion/questions around it.
Also, once it is confirmed, do you recommend buying the options at the Model T level ($280 recently for SPY) or do you think it's better to buy options a few dollars short of that level (say $177 for instance) and then sell them when they're a little deeper in the money once Model T is achieved?
Prognightmare said:If you add stochastic and bollinger bands you'll see the stochastic is now above 80 indicating a short term overbought indicator. It's also touching its upper bollinger band. That's why I bought some puts yesterday, anticipating a slight pullback. These 2 aren't foolproof but they can anticipate possible change in direction. If move is confirmed with the MACD, then confidence increases in said move.CSTXAg92 said:
Question for the Model T team:
Here's a chart of SPY from 2/18-4/9. Apparent downward trend. Fib/Model T lines applied...
- It would appear the 220 mark was a was a trend reversal.
- On 4/9 activity reached the 50% level of Fib.
Given this set of data, what are other observations you would gleen from the chart and what would you be on the lookout for going into trading next week?
So between the BBs and the stochastic >80, you're anticipating a continuation of a downward trend rather than a continuation of an upward trend?
No, I'm expecting a short term pullback next week, a breather of sorts. The MACD is still pointing higher. If that crosses to the downside look for steeper sell off.
Geez, I take a <1 day break and miss 400 posts. I can't even sort through the madness. I miss the days when this was a trading thread and not a newbie "OMG what is going to happen next" /slash/ political thread. There's a different forum for that. There's also a dedicated covid forum. Just PSA for a half ass trader trying to navigate the madness... I used to love this thread but now not so much...
Also for the millionth time... Model T is 50% retracement and works both ways before moving in initial move direction. Quit asking and read the entire thread.
Going to be quite a while before VIX <14 doldrums return.
59 South said:
Also for the millionth time... Model T is 50% retracement and works both ways before moving in initial move direction. Quit asking and read the entire thread.
I hear ya brother. Need some quiet time to clear the mind.
I appreciate your perspective like I have said multiple times. I've been in a peculiar situation the past month+ and haven't done hardly anything trading wise due to life circumstances totally unrelated to Covid 1918 or whatever.
But I'm still trying to follow to keep on my toes. The "should I cash out my 401k?" posts deserve their own thread and are killing this thread.
I appreciate your perspective like I have said multiple times. I've been in a peculiar situation the past month+ and haven't done hardly anything trading wise due to life circumstances totally unrelated to Covid 1918 or whatever.
But I'm still trying to follow to keep on my toes. The "should I cash out my 401k?" posts deserve their own thread and are killing this thread.
I've read every post at least daily for 3+ years.
Model T has been explained 10+ times just in the past few months. Experts on here don't have time to explain it over and over again. The info is documented.
Can someone smarter than me code this thread into an eBook for the world to see?
Model T has been explained 10+ times just in the past few months. Experts on here don't have time to explain it over and over again. The info is documented.
Can someone smarter than me code this thread into an eBook for the world to see?
Whitehouse Road said:59 South said:
Also for the millionth time... Model T is 50% retracement and works both ways before moving in initial move direction. Quit asking and read the entire thread.
Complains about reading all of the posts. Tells people to read the entire 1300 page thread.
If you're serious about trading, I would recommend reading the entire thread while simultaneously studying daily price action over the past few years. It will be the best learning experience you could ever wish for.
If i was going to wish for a learning experience I don't think Texags would make the list of consideration.59 South said:Whitehouse Road said:59 South said:
Also for the millionth time... Model T is 50% retracement and works both ways before moving in initial move direction. Quit asking and read the entire thread.
Complains about reading all of the posts. Tells people to read the entire 1300 page thread.
If you're serious about trading, I would recommend reading the entire thread while simultaneously studying daily price action over the past few years. It will be the best learning experience you could ever wish for.
Lucky for you the Model T has now been explained in the OP so next time someone asks about it, you can simply refer them to that post instead of re-explaining it for the millionth time. I'd say this was a fairly positive add to the forum based on today's discussions and with the market being closed and all.59 South said:
Also for the millionth time... Model T is 50% retracement and works both ways before moving in initial move direction. Quit asking and read the entire thread.
I'm surprised how hesitant some Model T believers are in the continuation of a strong downward trend from this 50% retrace. I guess it's the strong Fed backstop that keeps many talking about holding long and putting on a "hedge", rather than a bigger rebalance to outright short. If not for frantic fed and congressional cash pumps, it's absurd for market to be valued at what it was about a year ago.
CSTXAg92
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How long do you want to ignore this user?
I don't see anything wrong with learning from TexAgs. Actually, kind of like it.barnyard1996 said:If i was going to wish for a learning experience I don't think Texags would make the list of consideration.59 South said:Whitehouse Road said:59 South said:
Also for the millionth time... Model T is 50% retracement and works both ways before moving in initial move direction. Quit asking and read the entire thread.
Complains about reading all of the posts. Tells people to read the entire 1300 page thread.
If you're serious about trading, I would recommend reading the entire thread while simultaneously studying daily price action over the past few years. It will be the best learning experience you could ever wish for.
Now, getting berated by 59S for asking questions... that I can do without. But, I'm a big boy and can simply read past it.
Agree... kinda.
Berated? Come on now! Just read the first post!!!
Easy up fellow Ags! Can we just all get along?!?
Berated? Come on now! Just read the first post!!!
Easy up fellow Ags! Can we just all get along?!?
how does next week look ?
Amen.
If this line of thinking takes hold by politicians, watch out below. I actually tend to agree with Chamath on this. Speculators who buy stock in the worst pre-CV19 balance sheets out there, don't deserve to get bailed out by taxpayers.
Full version:
Full version:
hedge said:
how does next week look ?
As stated Yesterday the easy money is over, now that we achieved the retrace. It becomes a waiting game, so I've sold most every share position and taken a fairly neutral approach.
You saw the hedge yesterday on the downside and you also saw DIS & BAC, and a couple of other positions taken that were dirt cheap options only. So from a capital position we're talking less than 1/10th of a 1%. That tells you how much I don't know what to expect.
I'm playing SPY the same. Not playing options at the moment, but have been in and out of SPXL by watching SPY levels and bolly bands. I sold all my SPXL on Friday.Prognightmare said:
No, I'm expecting a short term pullback next week, a breather of sorts. The MACD is still pointing higher. If that crosses to the downside look for steeper sell off.
probably will buy some ONTX Monday morning if it's still .30.
59 South said:
Also for the millionth time... Model T is 50% retracement and works both ways before moving in initial move direction. Quit asking and read the entire thread.
59 South said:
Geez, I take a <1 day break and miss 400 posts. I can't even sort through the madness. I miss the days when this was a trading thread and not a newbie "OMG what is going to happen next" /slash/ political thread. There's a different forum for that. There's also a dedicated covid forum. Just PSA for a half ass trader trying to navigate the madness... I used to love this thread but now not so much...
You're an unpleasant person.
It's Good Friday and I feel like I'm watching the UFC today when I read this thread.
CSTXAg92 said:I don't see anything wrong with learning from TexAgs. Actually, kind of like it.barnyard1996 said:If i was going to wish for a learning experience I don't think Texags would make the list of consideration.59 South said:Whitehouse Road said:59 South said:
Also for the millionth time... Model T is 50% retracement and works both ways before moving in initial move direction. Quit asking and read the entire thread.
Complains about reading all of the posts. Tells people to read the entire 1300 page thread.
If you're serious about trading, I would recommend reading the entire thread while simultaneously studying daily price action over the past few years. It will be the best learning experience you could ever wish for.
Now, getting berated by 59S for asking questions... that I can do without. But, I'm a big boy and can simply read past it.
I've learned a ton from this thread, both in taking some lumps but also hitting some big wins and I'm nowhere near a lot of the people on here
Just learning how to execute simple covered calls to add profit on long holds + selling naked puts to hedge on entry positions as been great for my profit margin
Happy Easter y'all! Thanks for all the good learning opportunities on this thread.
I'm a new, conservative investor but up 8% in past 3 weeks thanks to the sages on this site.
Now, can someone please explain to me what a model T is?
I'm a new, conservative investor but up 8% in past 3 weeks thanks to the sages on this site.
Now, can someone please explain to me what a model T is?
Something about markets going down then up then back down and vice versa. I think it's a pyramid scheme
hedge said:
Something about markets going down then up then back down and vice versa. I think it's a pyramid scheme
cpt kirk was great in that movie
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