aeroag14 said:

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So is the consensus that the bottom is in? Or is that just a select few here who believe that?

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I think we are range bound right now. Up and down days, just bouncing around these levels until COVID19 situation has run it's course.

Prognightmare said:

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Aggie_2463 said:

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I haven't been following LK but is there a point to buy or is this one just a stay away at all costs?

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IMO, LK Enron at these levels is relatively safe. They will still be a competitor.... The shorts will have to cover when it recovers.

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are there certain indicators that we have or haven't hit bottom?

Smartass

Ragoo said:

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jh0400 said:

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This market is nuts.

I put on a trade of long SPY 0619 $251 call and short SPY 0619 $248 put for a net premium outflow of $18 on Friday and closed both sides this morning for a $5,000 profit.

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awesome

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The first weekend in two months where I decided not to take a straddle position into the weekend. Shame on me.

Edit: Nevermind I read the original wrong. Still, a straddle would've done well too.

deadbq03 said:

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Ragoo said:

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jh0400 said:

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This market is nuts.

I put on a trade of long SPY 0619 $251 call and short SPY 0619 $248 put for a net premium outflow of $18 on Friday and closed both sides this morning for a $5,000 profit.

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awesome

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The first weekend in two months where I decided not to take a straddle position into the weekend. Shame on me.

Edit: Nevermind I read the original wrong. Still, a straddle would've done well too.

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Strangle would have (obviously) worked about the same as a straddle.

Quote:

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We're experiencing a cataclysmic economic event and the markets are only down 25% from bubble-like highs a couple months ago.

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Which is why the drop from the high was cataclysmic. Now we've found some support in the interim, and waiting for the next move.

I have nothing to base this off of - but what if the government and markets have gotten smarter from economic collapses of the past? And maybe technology and the ability to instantly trade money has grown enough that giant collapses aren't as likely/necessary?

And not to be political in anyway, but Trump is very stock market savvy, that in my mind has always count for something in these conditions. Never would I have expected such bold Fed pushes made other presidents. These are definitely unique circumstances we are living in currently.

wessimo said:

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We're experiencing a cataclysmic economic event and the markets are only down 25% from bubble-like highs a couple months ago.

I get that there's a FED put in effect but this ramp up is just nuts.

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I agree. But the long term spending drag hasn't hit yet. And the stimulus will help A LOT. I know a family where everyone is currently furloughed, but the unemployment and Trump dollars will keep them afloat, and they will be working again once this lifts. There must be many families like them, and so I think in that respect the stimulus is going to soften a lot of the impacts of the economic pull back.

So, this time it's different?

wessimo said:

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We're experiencing a cataclysmic economic event and the markets are only down 25% from bubble-like highs a couple months ago.

I get that there's a FED put in effect but this ramp up is just nuts.

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Yeah, I was expecting a sell-off coming out of the weekend. I think the revised death models and speed up timeline added some exuberance. I'm slowly adding to positions here.

wessimo said:

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We're experiencing a cataclysmic economic event and the markets are only down 25% from bubble-like highs a couple months ago.

I get that there's a FED put in effect but this ramp up is just nuts.

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Honest question, what were your expectations for the markets? At its low, it wiped out 3+ years of growth. How much more did you think there would be?

jj9000 said:

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wessimo said:

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We're experiencing a cataclysmic economic event and the markets are only down 25% from bubble-like highs a couple months ago.

I get that there's a FED put in effect but this ramp up is just nuts.

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Not my data, but interesting to take a peek at history, and the corresponding time intervals:

2000 dot.com bear market

2000 Aug 2001 Mar -29%
2001 Mar 2001 May +22%
2001 May 2001 Sep -28%
2001 Sept 2002 Jan +24%
2002 Jan 2002 Aug -34%

2008 GFC

2007 Oct 2008 Mar -20%
2008 Mar 2008 May +15%
2008 May 2008 Dec -44%
2008 Dec 2009 Jan +18%
2009 Jan 2009 Mar -28%

2020 CV bear market

2020 Feb 2020 Mar -35%
2020 Mar 2020 Mar + >20%

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Great data, thanks.

I think the difference here is that in those crashes there were bigger underlying systematic problems. Here we could turn the economy back on tomorrow if we choose to. Albeit not full blast. If we extend this thing past May 1st then we will be testing uncharted water of how low the market can go.

Prognightmare said:

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wessimo said:

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We're experiencing a cataclysmic economic event and the markets are only down 25% from bubble-like highs a couple months ago.

I get that there's a FED put in effect but this ramp up is just nuts.

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Honest question, what were your expectations for the markets? At its low, it wiped out 3+ years of growth. How much more did you think there would be?

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I was expecting 2950 just as a normal correction. The virus threw everything off. I think we see a flash to 2050 at some point.

Prognightmare said:

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wessimo said:

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We're experiencing a cataclysmic economic event and the markets are only down 25% from bubble-like highs a couple months ago.

I get that there's a FED put in effect but this ramp up is just nuts.

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Honest question, what were your expectations for the markets? At its low, it wiped out 3+ years of growth. How much more did you think there would be?

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I thought we'd at least get close to the historic mean of the CAPE10 (overall decline of 50ish percent from the highs).

Saudis just bought a 10 percent stake in Carnival. Does that mean we think they are gonna make it now?

All you options people keep in mind the market is closed Friday

tam2002 said:

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Saudis just bought a 10 percent stake in Carnival. Does that mean we think they are gonna make it now?

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Considering they have bugs every where, expect cruise bailout announcement soon.

tam2002 said:

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Saudis just bought a 10 percent stake in Carnival. Does that mean we think they are gonna make it now?

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I bet it means Saudi-Russia oil deal, traded for Trump bailing out cruise lines.

tam2002 said:

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Saudis just bought a 10 percent stake in Carnival. Does that mean we think they are gonna make it now?

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That's one way to unload your own fuel

wessimo said:

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We're experiencing a cataclysmic economic event and the markets are only down 25% from bubble-like highs a couple months ago.

I get that there's a FED put in effect but this ramp up is just nuts.

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The evidence that we were at "bubble-like" highs is scarce

So funny how that works. Up big in stocks today? Options pay off too. It's never offsetting. Either all good news or all bad news.

Ready to test that 263 again?

khaos288 said:

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The first of my "long term buys" hit today. COF@40. Normally trades 95-100.

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Well that was a hell of purchase on Friday!


Glad I followed you on this one!

tam2002 said:

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Saudis just bought a 10 percent stake in Carnival. Does that mean we think they are gonna make it now?

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CCL on a run... and stopped (edit)

fightintxag13 said:

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khaos288 said:

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The first of my "long term buys" hit today. COF@40. Normally trades 95-100.

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Well that was a hell of purchase on Friday!


Glad I followed you on this one!

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You aren't kidding. I'm holding out for the long term, but if it hits a double, I'll be very tempted to sell half and be net free

Not sure what it means, but AAPL 270C for this friday Thursday has nearly 62K vol on it today.

McInnis 03 said:

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Not sure what it means, but AAPL 270C for this friday has nearly 62K vol on it today.

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*thursday

FMC using a $80 April 17 covered call versus outright selling 50%

AnyOtherName said:

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What system do you use that allows you to trade blue chips that early? I tried waking up early the other day and saw some opportunity, but Td wouldn't process any of the orders before 7ET.

...bloomberg terminal?

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InteractiveBrokers.com

You can also trade futures. You have to sign up for the extra capabilities when applying and for goodness sakes if you do want all trading capabilities don't answer the questions about your length of trading this or that with "never" or even 1 yr.