My opinion is that it won't be an instant market rebound but I think people underestimate what the economy was and how bad people are itching to get back to it.

New money is in the market that's never been there before. Other than 401k I've never had more than $500 in the market on individual stocks. In the last month that number has moved to 90k and I will be adding over the next month.

This wasn't a crash because of demand issues or over leveraging like in the past. The oil issue now is Russia and Saudi but the demand is also shot right now. Once people get back to normal life the demand will go up. The market isn't sharply declining in bad news anymore and on the smallest good news it soars.

Just one green investors opinion but I feel like Q4 will see a DOW around 26,000 steady. That's of course if we don't have another flare up in the fall.

Agnzona said:

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Sure there will be some opportunities but the destruction is real and will last a long time. Anyone expecting a real quick bounce back is delusional.

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i bet on 100 years of consumerism over a few weeks of social distancing.

I just bet on America and leave it at that.

Ragoo and me in Zwift...(I'm in the black kit with the colorful disc rear wheel). I just happened to run across him riding. He was doing a workout, so I didn't pester him long!

I was cooling down from a race, love kicking guy's arses from around the world. and get my butt kicked some too.

aggies76567 said:

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My opinion is that it won't be an instant market rebound but I think people underestimate what the economy was and how bad people are itching to get back to it.

New money is in the market that's never been there before. Other than 401k I've never had more than $500 in the market on individual stocks. In the last month that number has moved to 90k and I will be adding over the next month.

This wasn't a crash because of demand issues or over leveraging like in the past. The oil issue now is Russia and Saudi but the demand is also shot right now. Once people get back to normal life the demand will go up. The market isn't sharply declining in bad news anymore and on the smallest good news it soars.

Just one green investors opinion but I feel like Q4 will see a DOW around 26,000 steady. That's of course if we don't have another flare up in the fall.

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For a "green" investor your macro view of the current market conditions is dead on. JMO

Thank you sir. I graduated high school in 08' so I had no money to invest in that crash. I stayed away when I started making real money because everything kept climbing. I wish it was different circumstances but people my age (30 and below) have the first chance at big stock drops and good entry points IMO. I'm long in all of mine and may have been a little early on some buy in 2-5 years I think they'll payoff nicely.

aggies76567 said:

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Thank you sir. I graduated high school in 08' so I had no money to invest in that crash. I stayed away when I started making real money because everything kept climbing. I wish it was different circumstances but people my age (30 and below) have the first chance at big stock drops and good entry points IMO. I'm long in all of mine and may have been a little early on some buy in 2-5 years I think they'll payoff nicely.

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This is the boat that I am in. I have been out of college since 2014 and waiting for the right time to jump in. Since everything kept climbing, I was hesitant. Until everything crashed a few weeks ago. Figure now may be the best time of my life to jump in!

thirdcoast said:

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Futures are looking strong...
What resistance are we eyeing next couple days? 2630?

https://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

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Don't forget that futures can turn in an instant, especially with lower volume. I may wake up at 3 tomorrow to see what's what.

Part of me wants to be bullish but the other half says we are going to drop another 30-40% as the market sniffs out the catastrophe unfolding. Imagine what is lurking under the surface of the world economy. When debt to GDP was already way too high how can this end well? USA is looking to stay locked down for at least a few more weeks. The tidal wave of defaults will set the entire global system ablaze. I hope I'm wrong

The bottom is in. The PPP loan program is a smashing success. It will put an enormous backstop to layoffs and furloughs for the next 12 weeks, and is literally giving, not loaning, giving $350 billion to America's entrepreneurs. Mom and pops up to significant mid sized businesses just got a shot in the arm of liquidity that they have never dreamt of.

I'm a banker and I worked all weekend inputting loans in small town USA. This program saved hundreds of jobs in my small town alone. Extrapolate that across America, add liquidity to people who have proven they can make a buck, and the end result is a kick in the ass as we emerge from COVID 19.

JP_Losman said:

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Part of me wants to be bullish but the other half says we are going to drop another 30-40% as the market sniffs out the catastrophe unfolding. Imagine what is lurking under the surface of the world economy. When debt to GDP was already way too high how can this end well? USA is looking to stay locked down for at least a few more weeks. The tidal wave of defaults will set the entire global system ablaze. I hope I'm wrong

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the reason BofA targeted its own loan customers in the roll out of PPP is because it gave liquidity to their borrowers, and lessened BofA's risk. Those borrowers won't default, at least not for 12 weeks.

Ragoo said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Ragoo and me in Zwift...(I'm in the black kit with the colorful disc rear wheel). I just happened to run across him riding. He was doing a workout, so I didn't pester him long!

I was cooling down from a race, love kicking guy's arses from around the world. and get my butt kicked some too.

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oh wow. I haven't gone in and updated any thing. My rider dude and bike is all standard stuff. I was doing a TriDot workout.

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...you guys should wear helmets. No room in ER right now if you bonk your noggin.

Bonfire1996 said:

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The bottom is in. The PPP loan program is a smashing success. It will put an enormous backstop to layoffs and furloughs for the next 12 weeks, and is literally giving, not loaning, giving $350 billion to America's entrepreneurs. Mom and pops up to significant mid sized businesses just got a shot in the arm of liquidity that they have never dreamt of.

I'm a banker and I worked all weekend inputting loans in small town USA. This program saved hundreds of jobs in my small town alone. Extrapolate that across America, add liquidity to people who have proven they can make a buck, and the end result is a kick in the ass as we emerge from COVID 19.

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I'm with this guy

Sounds like a free lunch. What about the other 4 continents and all those defaults coming. Not every nation will be able to prop itself up like ours.

Bonfire1996 said:

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The bottom is in. The PPP loan program is a smashing success. It will put an enormous backstop to layoffs and furloughs for the next 12 weeks, and is literally giving, not loaning, giving $350 billion to America's entrepreneurs. Mom and pops up to significant mid sized businesses just got a shot in the arm of liquidity that they have never dreamt of.

I'm a banker and I worked all weekend inputting loans in small town USA. This program saved hundreds of jobs in my small town alone. Extrapolate that across America, add liquidity to people who have proven they can make a buck, and the end result is a kick in the ass as we emerge from COVID 19.

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What if this lasts longer than 12 weeks? Consumption is also down. I feel like a retest will happen at a minimum.