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Ragoo
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AG
Prognightmare said:

hedge_zer0 said:

she isnt last because shes black, shes last becuase shes the least attractive to me. put stacey dash in that lineup and she would be #1
That's like picking the least attractive between a Shelby GT500 and a Corvette Z06.



ive driven the GT500 so i pick that one
ProgN
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Noice
FrontPorchAg
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Jevertson said:

What is the consensus on airlines? Buy now or when? Which airline? How long to recover?

I like LUV but is this the point to enter?

Thanks
I don't think there is a consensus. Southwest is almost completely domestic so I think it comes back faster, and I think it has a lot of money available, but I'm skeptical of how long this goes on and how many people will actually be traveling as things slowly open up.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
IrishTxAggie
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I'll be on a plane to Cabo first chance I get
MS08
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Supposedly Uncle Warren did it so that his holdings in those companies would get back under 10% threshold for those companies. He did this for his own reporting purposes.
OverSeas AG
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Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
FrontPorchAg
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What if the airlines reopen but you have to self-quarantine for 14 days? That's a real problem we are looking at in California.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
IrishTxAggie
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Meh. I already work from home and I can't go to Asia anytime soon for work so if I'm stuck at home for 14 days after a 10 day vacation, so be it.
Agnzona
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Mtn_Guide said:

What if the airlines reopen but you have to self-quarantine for 14 days? That's a real problem we are looking at in California.


That is currently a thing already now. People flying in from NY/NJ, Florida, or Louisiana into Texas have to self quarantine.
"Fort Worth where the West begins...and Dallas is where the East peters out!"
FrontPorchAg
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I realize that; let me clarify. What I'm saying is I think these style quarantines will still be in place long after the shelter in place orders are lifted.
We are a long way from having a vaccine so the these style quarantines will likely be a sacrifice states/countries make in order to open up the economy. That will likely be a huge lasting headwind for the airlines.
Also, Irish isn't an Old. A lot of those people are genuinely scared of this and won't be flying for sometime.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
thirdcoast
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AG
1) We have a V correction and this is all proven to be an over-exagerrated political hoax. Things return to normal like a light switch.

2) This was a legit pandemic and healthcare capacity risk. Things return to normal in a cautiously phased approach.

It's probably closer to the latter, and after a 10 yr long bull market, we shouldn't assume we return to highs soon. Instead, we return to something 10-20% off highs, but do it in months, not years bc of gov intervention.
CSTXAg92
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Touchless said:


thirdcoast
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CSTXAg92 said:

Touchless said:





I trust this guy waaaaayy more than any talking head on news. He speaks Chinese, saw the vix ripples, and cashed out before March.

Charismatic Megafauna
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Anybody have thoughts on fnma right now?
Rice and Fries
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NRD09 said:

Anybody have thoughts on fnma right now?
What are your thoughts? I know a guy on the inside.
claym711
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30-50% min cut in buy-backs coming this year.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Rice and Fries said:

NRD09 said:

Anybody have thoughts on fnma right now?
What are your thoughts? I know a guy on the inside.

My thought is that they are possibly the most likely of any investment to get bailed out/sheltered rather than go under, and probably one of the safest bets at a short to mid term double at these prices. Worst case scenario seems to be they get (re?)nationalized and that seems unlikely, and it definitely wouldn't be at a total loss to shareholders
Grown Pear
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claym711 said:



30-50% min cut in buy-backs coming this year.

This is pretty staggering. Re: corporate buybacks likely being limited I see the road back to "new highs" much longer than most people are hoping for.
Bird Poo
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I'm thinking that the media-driven anger over CEO salaries and bonuses caused a lot of this. A lot of companies have been compensating executives with company stock. Increase your net worth by increasing your organization's stock price.
Boat Shoes
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Grown Pear said:

claym711 said:



30-50% min cut in buy-backs coming this year.

This is pretty staggering. Re: corporate buybacks likely being limited I see the road back to "new highs" much longer than most people are hoping for.


Ya I don't like that chart at all.
FrontPorchAg
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Do you have a link to that article?
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
george1992
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CSTXAg92 said:

Touchless said:



Yes this is staggering. And as soon as we all get back to work its going to be the greatest number of people added to the workforce in history. So that line is going to shoot back down.

This is an apples to oranges comparison. The job losses are temporary due to the virus unlike a real recession when there are sustained job losses.

And if 100,000 to 200,000 people end up dying, then we should have even lower unemployment when we get back to full capacity. We are going to have to replace at least a third of those that die assuming its not all retired, elderly or people that wouldn't work before that end up dying.
Agnzona
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A lot of jobs are not coming back.
"Fort Worth where the West begins...and Dallas is where the East peters out!"
thirdcoast
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AG
So what are we in for this week?

Trade in the channel with a narrowing wedge?

Break out above resistance?

Break out below support?

This guy isn't too bullish in near term...

khaos288
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thirdcoast said:

So what are we in for this week?

Trade in the channel with a narrowing wedge?

Break out above resistance?

Break out below support?


I think the rally is over. Slow decline to 2050 starts this week.
Ragoo
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Re: buybacks, just means more cash for growth. Imo.
khaos288
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Ragoo said:

Re: buybacks, just means more cash for growth. Imo.


If they had growth projects that would raise the share price the same as buybacks, they would have done them. I would think.
Grown Pear
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Ragoo said:

Re: buybacks, just means more cash for growth. Imo.
Totally agree. In the long-term it's the best thing for company growth and sustainability. Which in turn is best for long-term shareholders.

Corporate buy backs have been a tool for executive/management compensation and good for shareholders in the short-term.

Which leads me to believe the "road to recovery" will be slower partly due to this, but in the long-term likely be healthier and more positive.
Carlo4
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From the posted video and if he is right, he is essentially saying (by looking at charts) that the S&P could test the 2,100 level in as little as near the end of the month if we keep pace on this incredibly downward sloping trendline. While he didn't verbally say it, you could follow time on the y-axis when he moved around the chart and deduce those dates.

But first, we test 2,380 and go from there. The next bull run will occur when we break the trendline. When? who knows.

thirdcoast
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Yeah, sometimes I wonder if the free hand sketching is really aligned with date scale, or not. When he sketched the recent bull trap, he had it going into end of May.
george1992
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Agnzona said:

A lot of jobs are not coming back.


I imagine some oil and gas jobs will not be coming back but there were layoffs happening before the virus. Other than that, for every company that goes out of business a new one will emerge.
IrishTxAggie
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Agnzona
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george1992 said:

Agnzona said:

A lot of jobs are not coming back.


I imagine some oil and gas jobs will not be coming back but there were layoffs happening before the virus. Other than that, for every company that goes out of business a new one will emerge.


Sure in 2, 5 or 10 years.
"Fort Worth where the West begins...and Dallas is where the East peters out!"
george1992
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You underestimate the will and entrepreneurial skills of this country.

There is always a way to make money. There is never nothing to do. It might not be what you want to do but there is always work regardless of the economy.

There is also plenty of opportunities to sit around and have a pity party. You just have to decide which one you want to do.
Agnzona
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Sure there will be some opportunities but the destruction is real and will last a long time. Anyone expecting a real quick bounce back is delusional.
"Fort Worth where the West begins...and Dallas is where the East peters out!"
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