To add more to the above dissertation, I have seen about 10 estimates on 2Q GDP and they range anywhere from -3% to -30.1%. These firms are supposed to have smart people working for them!

How do you see SPY Mar 31 220p? It's under $2 making it so attractive

Bought April 3rd $100 Puts on IWM

We aren't in the clear on this stimulus stuff yet

Bought SDOW at 55 this morning thinking we would have some red days ahead. Theres thinking that the jobs report should bring the market back down, right?

oldarmy1 said:

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Bought April 3rd $100 Puts on IWM

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This is a volatility trade that I think gets to $5 along the way.

Sold some ET covered calls @$9 for 7/17 when the price hit $5.30 today. Figure it's a win win... if it's at $9 by July then things are going great in the market and I cover my basis and if not... some extra cash!

I'm thinking the more likely scenario is closing the position for a locked in gain after the stock goes sub $4.... thats a WAG.

ETA.... thoughts? I'm new to this.,

IrishTxAggie said:

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How Bill Ackman Turned $27 Million Into $2.6 Billion During the Coronavirus Crisis

I have no problem with shorting, it's part of the market. But Ackman should go to jail for this after promoting the 30 day quarantine

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I remember watching this interview. He was on the verge of tears with his apocalyptic message. Slimy SOB.

IrishTxAggie said:

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How Bill Ackman Turned $27 Million Into $2.6 Billion During the Coronavirus Crisis

I have no problem with shorting, it's part of the market. But Ackman should go to jail for this after promoting the 30 day quarantine

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I don't get all the anger. A) He wasn't wrong about what we should be doing. B) Presumably their hedge fund lost a truckload in their regular holdings, right? It's not like he sold all his long positions and went 100% short, right?

IrishTxAggie said:

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Yell "FIRE" in a crowded theater when there isn't one and let me know what the cops do to you.

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I guess if you think this virus isn't a big deal then we'll have to agree to disagree.

MM

oldarmy1 said:

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I can see all of you guys buying IWM Puts.

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In

Drafting error on Stimulus package.....Republicans won't sign unless corrected...

oldarmy1 said:

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I can see all of you guys buying IWM Puts.

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You can see the 1 contact I bought?

krosch11 said:

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So Ackman bet on the reaction from his dooms day escapade on national television ?

Now THATS called influencing a market . I was wondering why he was going off the rails .

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He must post on TexAgs

TLDR: info from employees in Germany paint a gloomy picture of infection rates that are expected to peak next week

I can provide more details via PM if interested. Those stating market uncertainty because we don't have all the data are correct. I have employees in Stuttgart Germany. The base commander sent a very detailed email down the chain.

Excerpts are:
increased infection rates in the military community
Converting base gym to a makeshift hospital
Increased drive up testing that has identified a couple of asymptomatic people that tested positive that were in jobs and had interaction (medical staff, a bank teller, a waitress).
Cited issues of delay in getting test results
German counterpart states that area hospitals are expected to reach capacity by next week and concern not enough staff. More or less asking US to ramp up to handle our personnel if we can.

To be honest, was pretty jarring email especially if they are taking the steps to call in medical personnel from other bases as well as to convert the gym to make more hospital beds.

No way in hell we are back in action by Easter, I don't see this getting better honestly til Early August, but I'm a pessimist

IrishTxAggie said:

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How Bill Ackman Turned $27 Million Into $2.6 Billion During the Coronavirus Crisis

I have no problem with shorting, it's part of the market. But Ackman should go to jail for this after promoting the 30 day quarantine

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Agree. Same with Soros who shorted real estate and then told everyone why REITs will fail on national tv.

Hey, at least he told everyone he was honest about shorting real estate before scaring everyone to follow him.

large volume on CAT May 75P. over 10k

Pretty good runup these last couple of days. Thinking about moving my 401K balance to cash (obviously staying in the account) as I think we are going to drop down a good 10% or so at least before the charge back up. Obviously this is an incredibly long term account (35 years out for me). thoughts if trying to do these type of moves in a 401K is smart, dumb, etc.?

What affect do y'all think the jobs report will have on stocks tomorrow?

nomadic_ag said:

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What affect do y'all think the jobs report will have on stocks tomorrow?

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It is expected to be bad. Like 3.5MM bad. Just a matter of how they word it.

nomadic_ag said:

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What affect do y'all think the jobs report will have on stocks tomorrow?

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Jobless numbers come out at 7:30a central time I believe and I can't help but think they're going to be the highets we've seen in years. Texas Workforce Commission has basically cried "UNCLE" on phone calls and people can't even get through to file a claim at this point.

Employers have been cutting left and right and expediting these processes, I think the number is going to surprise some people. Does the market have it worked in already though?

From Marketwatch

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

Take the worst unemployment week we ever had. Multiply by 4. That is the expectation. I can't imagine it going up tomorrow, which means it surely will.