hedge_zer0 said:

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hmm what is the army up too ?

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Jade Helm, bro. It's happening.

thirdcoast said:

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hedge_zer0 said:

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hmm what is the army up too ?

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He is waiting for his deposit to go thru so he can get back to influencing the S&P.

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is he the one known as DOW JONES ?

aggieland09 said:

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FYI, army friend called active duty for 6month term of domestic deployment related to corona virus. Also army reserve friend called in for 3 month domestic deployment. Both this week and already on duty. IMO not good news for the market. I lurk this thread and don't post much but thought y'all would want this tip if you hadn't heard already.

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Domestic deployment for the army??? Does your friend know what the Insurrection Act is???

IrishTxAggie said:

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aggieland09 said:

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FYI, army friend called active duty for 6month term of domestic deployment related to corona virus. Also army reserve friend called in for 3 month domestic deployment. Both this week and already on duty. IMO not good news for the market. I lurk this thread and don't post much but thought y'all would want this tip if you hadn't heard already.

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Domestic deployment for the army??? Does your friend know what the Insurrection Act is???

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Eh, could be COVID test site support or border deployment. Nothing to see here IMO.

IrishTxAggie said:

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aggieland09 said:

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FYI, army friend called active duty for 6month term of domestic deployment related to corona virus. Also army reserve friend called in for 3 month domestic deployment. Both this week and already on duty. IMO not good news for the market. I lurk this thread and don't post much but thought y'all would want this tip if you hadn't heard already.

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Domestic deployment for the army??? Does your friend know what the Insurrection Act is???

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wonder if this something related to supply and logisitcs.

RGRAg1/75 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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aggieland09 said:

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FYI, army friend called active duty for 6month term of domestic deployment related to corona virus. Also army reserve friend called in for 3 month domestic deployment. Both this week and already on duty. IMO not good news for the market. I lurk this thread and don't post much but thought y'all would want this tip if you hadn't heard already.

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Domestic deployment for the army??? Does your friend know what the Insurrection Act is???

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Eh, could be COVID test site support or border deployment. Nothing to see here IMO.

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National Guard =/= Army

I'm just having a really hard time wrapping my head around this all.

There's just so much unknown: the exponential spread of this virus throughout the U.S., how long we will truly be on "lock down", the immediate effect on business and GDP, unemployment figures, further erosion on business/GDP from unemployment.

This stimulus to me, while I fully support action, seems like we're just desperately throwing duct tape trying to keep the business and the market ok with things. I don't see how this stimulus (and I have ZERO clue on what the answer is) fixes the underlying issues that's going to effect that macro side of this all.

I know the "market is efficient" and must have a lot already priced into things... I just don't see how this thing doesn't take once the true figures (virus cases, EPS, unemployment, GDP, etc) come out. I don't see us getting a good surprise.

Sorry for rant, I'm just trying to wrap my head around this and (1) not panic and trade emotionally, (2) not get sucked into a bull trap, and (3) not take too much of my "long" investments off the table and miss on any rallies or when this turns around.

IrishTxAggie said:

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aggieland09 said:

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FYI, army friend called active duty for 6month term of domestic deployment related to corona virus. Also army reserve friend called in for 3 month domestic deployment. Both this week and already on duty. IMO not good news for the market. I lurk this thread and don't post much but thought y'all would want this tip if you hadn't heard already.

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Domestic deployment for the army??? Does your friend know what the Insurrection Act is???

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The 2007 Defense Authorization Bill, with over $500 billion allocated to the military, and which also contained the changes to the Insurrection Act of 1807, was passed by a bipartisan majority of both houses of Congress: 398-23 in the House and by unanimous consent in the Senate.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act#cite_note-5][5][/url] For military forces to be used under the provisions of the revised Insurrection Act, the following conditions must be met:

Quote:

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(1) The President may employ the armed forces, including the National Guard in Federal service, to(A) restore public order and enforce the laws of the United States when, as a result of a natural disaster, epidemic, or other serious public health emergency, terrorist attack or incident, or other condition in any State or possession of the United States, the President determines that

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Probably man power to build temporary hospitals if necessary.

TheCougarHunter said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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aggieland09 said:

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FYI, army friend called active duty for 6month term of domestic deployment related to corona virus. Also army reserve friend called in for 3 month domestic deployment. Both this week and already on duty. IMO not good news for the market. I lurk this thread and don't post much but thought y'all would want this tip if you hadn't heard already.

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Domestic deployment for the army??? Does your friend know what the Insurrection Act is???

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The 2007 Defense Authorization Bill, with over $500 billion allocated to the military, and which also contained the changes to the Insurrection Act of 1807, was passed by a bipartisan majority of both houses of Congress: 398-23 in the House and by unanimous consent in the Senate.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act#cite_note-5][5][/url] For military forces to be used under the provisions of the revised Insurrection Act, the following conditions must be met:

Quote:

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(1) The President may employ the armed forces, including the National Guard in Federal service, to(A) restore public order and enforce the laws of the United States when, as a result of a natural disaster, epidemic, or other serious public health emergency, terrorist attack or incident, or other condition in any State or possession of the United States, the President determines that

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Quote:

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The new wording of the Act, as amended, still requires the same conditions as worded in Paragraph (2), above, but those conditions could, after the changes, also be a result of

Quote:

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natural disaster, epidemic, or other serious public health emergency, terrorist attack or incident, or other condition

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and only if

Quote:

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domestic violence has occurred to such an extent that the constituted authorities of the State or possession are incapable of maintaining public order.

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True. I'd imagine his "army friend" is actually National Guard. At least I would hope.

IrishTxAggie said:

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RGRAg1/75 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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aggieland09 said:

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FYI, army friend called active duty for 6month term of domestic deployment related to corona virus. Also army reserve friend called in for 3 month domestic deployment. Both this week and already on duty. IMO not good news for the market. I lurk this thread and don't post much but thought y'all would want this tip if you hadn't heard already.

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Domestic deployment for the army??? Does your friend know what the Insurrection Act is???

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Eh, could be COVID test site support or border deployment. Nothing to see here IMO.

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National Guard =/= Army

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National Guard being activated for domestic deployment is common for disaster response. When someone is "called to active duty" that means they are NG or reserve. Nothing to see here.

Sure wish I would've gone with my gut last week and put some money in PH. They're a major supplier of ours, but didn't know it'd recover that quick.

Can you explain the outcomes?

So, um, too early to say we're not finishing RED today?

CaptnCarl said:

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Can you explain the outcomes?

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Somebody is staking $3MM on Oxy getting closer to the $5/share price by September.

Nagler said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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So, um, too early to say we're not finishing RED today?

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I've got some negative delta I need to capitalize on by Friday. Just trying to move the market.

Sold some TSLA May calls 900 and 1020. this is a frenzy

They put some juicy meat in the bear trap. That's all I gotta say.

Thank you. Email being sent

Gonna be a hell of a two days.

Such things cause the Model T to win. Overruns on emotion are the nature of the business.

I just drove around my little part of Houston for lunch. I like to find a nice empty parking lot to listen to the radio and get out of my office. It was a GHOST town today. The "stay at home" orders are having a bit of an effect. I can't see how this doesn't eventually play out. Most specifically those jobless numbers report tomorrow unfortunately I think is going to blow some people socks off.

oldarmy1 said:

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Harkrider 93 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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gougler08 said:

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AggieKeith15 said:

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Seriously what is with this market?! Down already after agreeing on a big stimulus bill. I don't get it.

This is why we can't have nice things!

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The 8% increase yesterday was the stimulus bill (and as someone else noted, most other times there's another drop to come after it's announced)

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I think we will have more upside short term but look out after it finds its top.


2792 is Model T on SPX.
278 on SPY

I'd be making plans anywhere around 2700 to take all actions.

p.s. In order for M<odel T to be activiated you have to break $250 on SPY and 2550 SPX

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To you, is Model T more accurate than the Fibonacci retracements, which I think is 2650 for the first one?

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Absolutelty 100%, no questions asked more accurate as a historical reality. We see it over and over and over. Tested repeatable. One of the wonders of the trading world that most don't pay much attention to also.

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I'm still trying to learn this Model T theory. With SPY now up to $255, what would the downside calculate back out to and how quick of a turnaround would you anticipate? 1 day? End of week? Next week some time?

Grown Pear said:

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I'm just having a really hard time wrapping my head around this all.

There's just so much unknown: the exponential spread of this virus throughout the U.S., how long we will truly be on "lock down", the immediate effect on business and GDP, unemployment figures, further erosion on business/GDP from unemployment.

This stimulus to me, while I fully support action, seems like we're just desperately throwing duct tape trying to keep the business and the market ok with things. I don't see how this stimulus (and I have ZERO clue on what the answer is) fixes the underlying issues that's going to effect that macro side of this all.

I know the "market is efficient" and must have a lot already priced into things... I just don't see how this thing doesn't take once the true figures (virus cases, EPS, unemployment, GDP, etc) come out. I don't see us getting a good surprise.

Sorry for rant, I'm just trying to wrap my head around this and (1) not panic and trade emotionally, (2) not get sucked into a bull trap, and (3) not take too much of my "long" investments off the table and miss on any rallies or when this turns around.

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I feel your pain. Some things I try to remember:

1. There isn't any model or piece of data that is accurate 100% of the time. There isn't even a set of data that is 100% correct all of the time. Best thing you can do is take all of the data, and make a wise decision based on that data. You may be wrong, but it was still a wise choice. You can only increase your odds of success by doing this.

2. Usually, the market moves up when the rate of bad news slows, not when the bad news stops. This isn't always accurate either. Sometimes, it moves up because the news, while bad, wasn't as bad as they thought it would be. There are plenty of other things that have happened as well.

3. Sometimes the market gets it wrong. This one can never be proven or disproven. After 2008, some bond trading nerds calculated that the bond market priced in a 25-30% bankruptcy. Many safe bonds dropped 10-20% during that time frame (starting to see that again). We didn't get anywhere near that rate of bankruptcy. The market was wrong.


Summary:

Nobody knows if the bottom has been made. Nobody knows if we will retest that bottom. Listen to people who have been pretty accurate in the past, and take their opinions to form yours. At this time, I would think we retest the bottom because most traders think we do. I also know that 2008 was the only time we didn't retest it in the last 10+ corrections (not sure if Dec 2018 counts). Based on those two, I will wait to add more, even though I may be wrong.