Standing by for the Friday afternoon flush.....

AgOutsideAustin said:

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Standing by for the Friday afternoon flush.....

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Gonna get me some of that 71$ roku

Model T on S&P was 2553. We overran it to 2550. Now let's see what we have

BOUGHT DE

I think we get a nice little spike (~10%) on an aid package agreement today and then things trail off into the weekend as folks don't want to be holding through any negative surprises. That's how I'm playing it at least.

Perfect reverse H&S off the Model T formed

Prognightmare said:

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Now I am Pissed!

Today -should- end up. >80% historic do. Plus Fed throwing trillions, treasury and congress gonna helicopter drop. If bounce gets faded today to close....not sure what's gonna bounce this except total capitulation.

Prognightmare said:

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The coronavirus has gone too far now

Thoughts on TRP?

We already hit -30% from ATHs on this. If a recession materializes I think it's going to be a devastating drawdown in the market. Something to keep in mind for the dip buyers.

Anyone brave enough to play the airlines prior to the relief package being announced?

Boat Shoes said:

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Anyone brave enough to play the airlines prior to the relief package being announced?

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It's an intriguing idea. Wish there was more volume on JETS options.

Why not just buy the top 4-6 names that drive over half of the index and have ample liquidity, smaller bid/ask spreads, and not take on the crap airlines/airline related companies in the index?

I'm planning to buy DAL and LUV for 2/3 of my position and split the remaining 1/3 between AAL and UAL. I'd rather own the two quality airlines, but willing to take the increased beta on the other two (hopefully on the way back up)

deadbq03 said:

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Boat Shoes said:

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Anyone brave enough to play the airlines prior to the relief package being announced?

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It's an intriguing idea. Wish there was more volume on JETS options.

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Maybe this instead. Travel in general

TRIP 1/15/21 19C. $2MM 4.05

Boat Shoes said:

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Anyone brave enough to play the airlines prior to the relief package being announced?

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Already did, they're at what, 6 year lows? and they'll get bailed out most likely if they struggle.

Since you play heavily in options, I'm curious what timeframe you tend to look at? By that, do you look for options that expire within the next week or two or do they tend to be more 6-9 months out or even longer? Does the timeframe depend more on the market volatility? I'd assume with it being more volatile at the moment, you'd look for shorter windows, but you also mentioned September and November for right now so those are a little further out.

Thanks

Trump set to ramp market into close on Friday.

Another Friday last hour ramp to sooth feelers.

With Trump speaking before the close of market (Speaks at 3est), shorting the VIX for an hour could be a fairly decent play. Don't carry it into the weekend though

IrishTxAggie said:

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With Trump speaking before the close of market (Speaks at 3est), shorting the VIX for an hour could be a fairly decent play. Don't carry it into the weekend though

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Never carry VIX long term. It's made to burn long term holders.

Rice and Fries said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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With Trump speaking before the close of market (Speaks at 3est), shorting the VIX for an hour could be a fairly decent play. Don't carry it into the weekend though

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Never carry VIX long term. It's made to burn long term holders.

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Yep. Hence the warning for some that may not fully understand the VIX.

IrishTxAggie said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Boat Shoes said:

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Anyone brave enough to play the airlines prior to the relief package being announced?

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It's an intriguing idea. Wish there was more volume on JETS options.

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Maybe this instead. Travel in general

TRIP 1/15/21 19C. $2MM 4.05

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Nice idea. I'm not ready to tie things down in options that long, and their volumes are also rotten for the dates I'm looking at.

Rumor has it that Daddy Trump will be declaring a National Emergency at 3PM EST this afternoon. This is supposedly to help the government respond faster and using emergency powers.

What are the plays y'all thinking about?

I've already got $210 SPY Puts for 3/25. May add some other puts but definitely in a wait and see with the markets up 3% today.

Dow is down to 1.5%

Question for technical guys.
Where is next entry for Roku if 75 area fails. 60? 50?

short dated options are true gambling unless you're sitting on some really good info. That being said, the volatility is crazy and the directionality is slanted pretty heavily one way so I've been placing heavy short term bets on the drop. I've also been selling weekly calls on stocks that I hold to scalp a little bit of their loss in value.

In general I will make a play that is at least 60 days out and I am not too far out of the money. That said once we leg down one more time I am going to be rebuying into and averaging down a lot of my 2022 expiry tech calls.

The long dated calls in my brokerage account are long term capital gains and not taxed at income levels so that will be nice. I make a lot of my short term plays in my Roth IRA to avoid the feds as much as possible on my short term gains you just have to be careful about wash sale issues between accounts.


Edit: Also, VIX to 80 today and a big drop out of the SPY squeeze. Maybe that late day pump?? I suspect we gap down Monday??

That rumor is probably freaking out market initially but could see it creating a calm later in day

Rice and Fries said:

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Rumor has it that Daddy Trump will be declaring a National Emergency at 3PM EST this afternoon. This is supposedly to help the government respond faster and using emergency powers.

What are the plays y'all thinking about?

I've already got $210 SPY Puts for 3/25. May add some other puts but definitely in a wait and see with the markets up 3% today.

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If that's the case. By 4PM EST its gonna be.

Yesterday my TLT strangle was green on both sides; today my SPY strangle and GLD strangles are both green on both sides.

Volatility is insane.

Aggierific said:

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If it was negative news, wouldn't he wait until after markey closed? This seems designed to prevent a crash going into weekend...

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The question is do I hold my puts into the weekend or sell off before COB