Could tomorrow be a Black Friday that rivals the 1987 Black Monday?

Most of my savings for the year come in lumpy, so while I try not to be a market timer I do try to buy in chunks on the dips (then hold forever).

I'm just about all in, with my last order sitting for MSFT if it hits $152 (20% off the high). Hoping that fills tomorrow.

Fed will stop the bleeding somewhere. Trump pressers and tweets not gonna do it.

Talon2DSO said:

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If you're holding a SPY 290p and it drops below that, what's the value then? Is it beneficial to sell it quick or to hold as it drops then sell right before expiration?

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If it's a Feb 28th it would need to move quickly or it will get eaten up fairly quickly in the morning. Better way is to buy shares if it reaches $290 and take your shot for a reversal. If you get it and it really runs to close over todays high then you'd be the happiest guy around

iluvpoker said:

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Could tomorrow be a Black Friday that rivals the 1987 Black Monday?

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Tomorrow could easily be a dead cat bounce, but I don't see the market turning around tomorrow. What good news would there be tomorrow? Its just going to be news of how many more people have coronavirus.

When China starts lifting sanctions on its citizens then we are talking about the market regaining its senses.

claym711 said:

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Fed will stop the bleeding somewhere. Trump pressers and tweets not gonna do it.

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I hope not. Let it run and get it out of the system.

Prognightmare said:

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Earnings mean exactly dick in a market like this week

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but what an incredible opportunity to get a peek under the hood then buy the stock the next day without having to pay a premium for it! (cough...crm...)

I have a March 2 put

Bought CRM $180C out to Sept. All I really did today

What if Sanders is a close 2nd to Biden in SC?

Since we all love the numbers game...

SPX high was 3393.52 ages ago (last Wednesday).
20% correction is about 2715 which is right at that 2718 gap.
30% drop which is a fairly average recession is 2375. Could we see 2350 again just like Christmas 2018?

Just some key levels to watch in the coming months now that all hell has broken loose. In the meantime, I'm trading the volatility with options.

Biden is a non-issue imo. Sanders will be the nominee unless the Super Delegates steal it from him again. The markets will not like a Sanders possible election win.

Another thing to note is that SPX just pierced right through the 200 EMA this afternoon. That is a bad sign. Nasdaq is still barely above it but if all 3 major indexes close this week under that key level, that is bad news for the foreseeable future.

Prognightmare said:

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Biden is a non-issue imo. Sanders will be the nominee unless the Super Delegates steal it from him again. The markets will not like a Sanders possible election win.

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

538 currently has a contested convention at 49% and Bernie down to 32%.

I would think as the possibility of a contested convention rises nobody is going to be officially dropping out so it will continue to rise until it's completely unavoidable.

Dems will give it to Biden or Bloomberg in the end (or someone from the establishment). Would be a great thing for the markets. And if Bernie runs third party to seal Trump's re-election - even better!

I'll just keep trying to break up the politics talk with one last comment.

20 or 30% drops are really not that big of a deal in the long run. My personal opinion is that this will end up being similar to previous occurrences like 87, 90 and 98. I'm rooting for it hard cause I'll be putting back a lot in the next few years.

59 South said:

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I'll just keep trying to break up the politics talk with one last comment.

20 or 30% drops are really not that big of a deal in the long run. My personal opinion is that this will end up being similar to previous occurrences like 87, 90 and 98. I'm rooting for it hard cause I'll be putting back a lot in the next few years.

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This is the first time I've ever experienced anything like this...much less 20-30% drop. For the years noted, were those driven by technical factors, or things similar to Corona virus?

I could be wrong here, but it seems to me that, sans the virus, and even at all-time highs, a correction of this nature would be pretty unexpected, right?

Talon2DSO said:

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I have a March 2 put

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Oh then yes sell it if a deep red open. Difference between today and Monday premium portion is big.

Thank you sir!

oldarmy1 said:

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Talon2DSO said:

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I have a March 2 put

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Oh then yes sell it if a deep red open. Difference between today and Monday premium portion is big.

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But youd lose protection from negative developments over the weekend?

Boat Shoes said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Talon2DSO said:

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I have a March 2 put

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Oh then yes sell it if a deep red open. Difference between today and Monday premium portion is big.

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But youd lose protection from negative developments over the weekend?

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Sell tomorrow, then buy a lower put for 4th with the earnings

DIS and AMZN should get those massive gap fills in the morning. For long term or retirement accounts, that would be a good entry. So if we all get quarantined in our homes, we'll all be watching movies and buying crap online.

I was still at home in school through the late 90s so I wasn't paying attention. 87 was a freak event from what I understand.

I experienced 08-09 with just a few years of 401k in the market and really still wasn't paying much attention because I spent all my free time partying.

Don't worry... it will come back and you'll be a lot smarter and thicker skinned. I just now figured out how to actually profit off the volatility that comes with panic.

I love trading in corrections and bear markets. It separates the wheat from the chaff.

59 South said:

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I was still at home in school through the late 90s so I wasn't paying attention. 87 was a freak event from what I understand.

I experienced 08-09 with just a few years of 401k in the market and really still wasn't paying much attention because I spent all my free time partying.

Don't worry... it will come back and you'll be a lot smarter and thicker skinned. I just now figured out how to actually profit off the volatility that comes with panic.

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Right on brother, I appreciate the wisdom and guidance a whole lot. I consider myself a long-term investor-I've had no intention to sell at all when I first took positions this year-and with that in mind selling now seems absolutely silly, and strategically adding cheaper shares over the coming months seems most prudent. It's been "fun" learning to control my emotions here though; this week has put some hair on my chest for sure, and taught me a lot technically, too.

Looking forward to getting this one behind us, and hopefully having found a way to actually make a few bucks in the process.

Best of luck to everyone!

59 South said:

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Since we all love the numbers game...

SPX high was 3393.52 ages ago (last Wednesday).
20% correction is about 2715 which is right at that 2718 gap.
30% drop which is a fairly average recession is 2375. Could we see 2350 again just like Christmas 2018?

Just some key levels to watch in the coming months now that all hell has broken loose. In the meantime, I'm trading the volatility with options.

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okay this keeps gnawing at me...
I think (want to believe) we're gonna recover bigly like Tuesday at the latest
however
I think there's a small chance we don't and we careen into that 20-30% correction territory (particularly considering a post earlier today were someone asked if they should sell everything and wait until things settle out!), and if we do I think it'll happen quickly. So what's a good couple hundred buck bet that will make me rich if that happens?

Oh and I'm traveling all day tomorrow so I gotta place the order tonight and hope it fills tomorrow.

Thinking spy Mar 4 275p for $200 and see if it fills? Or Mar 6 270p? If we gap up or get a promising start to the day tomorrow those should fill?

[img][url=https://imgur.com/VvyFema][/url][/img]

[img][url=https://imgur.com/BKrV8Bi][/url][/img]

Well done, thanks for sharing! I feel a little smarter now

Went long a 40 put @ .84 on June /CL yesterday and closed just before bedtime (Singapore time) @ 1.08. Eyes on /GC calls for over the weekend..

Nice work on the RCL.