oldarmy1 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Someone needs to put a kick into Mickey Mouse's ass.

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Decent checkmark pattern on DIS

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I know but your reassurance helps, thanks.

Lowered my basis again today on those DIS calls.

CX had a strong support move today. Volume over last 3 days tells you basing is almost done and its going to move back above $5.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/26/samsung-warns-on-first-quarter-earnings.html

Quote:

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Samsung Electronics says it expects first quarter earnings to fall short of market expectations due to weak memory and display businesses.

The world's largest smartphone maker says it predicts lower than expected earnings due to weak memory chip demand.

It also expects profitability in the display business to worsen due to price competition

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snowmnag970 said:

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claym711 said:

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Why can't the fed raise rates past 2.25 and removes all '19 dots in this booming economy?

A couple raises and we have a full year of bear.

It's a huge bubble that's going to pop but they're gonna try to let the air out slowly. We'll see if it works.

They'll roll out a baby QE if not.

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This is not a bubble. You tell me where there's a bubble? Real estate isn't still flying off the handle like in 08. Lenders aren't out there with tons of subprime lending. Yes credit card debt is high, but unemployment is low so as long as people can pay. You want to see a "bubble", go look at the Chinese real estate....empty cities and people with tons of loans to own two or three apartments in these empty cities. On top of the amount of leverage throughout their entire economy as a whole. Do I think there are idiots in real estate? Yes. But they aren't going to be taking the numbers to take us down.

Feds need to raise rates to a level that allows them to drop them in a recession. What happens if the fed didn't raise the rates and the economy ranks? We gonna be like the Germans and have negative yield in our bonds? Come on.

The recession is probably going to be triggered by lack of global growth and market pullback. We've been going for almost 11 years now. Look at how long an economy grows between recessions...average is 10 years and we are right there. There's no way we could continue to have an aggressive growth (and not price it into the market) for 15-20 years. We are a mature established economy. A little pullback is a good thing.

TLDR: stop saying we are in a bubble, without posting any evidence. Just cause you watched the big short and understand what an MBS means does not mean we are in a bubble.

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QE and low rates surely did not create a bubble...just look at what happened when they started off loading balance sheet and tightening and then promptly halted...during a booming economy.

No bubble.

Entire market rallying but NIO testing $5

Apparently EV subsidies cut in China.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-26/china-scales-back-subsidies-for-electric-cars-to-spur-innovation?srnd=technology-vp
This has been known since early in the year but numbers have now been announced.

FYI - GG just broke above the triangle formed since late feb.

Let's see where she ends up today.

SUM down again too

DIS trying to run.

Good thing I've only lost almost all my 2019 gains on NIO.

To double down and average down here or not.... probably going to stay away and just hold what I do have for the long term.

HEAR possibly flirting with big gap from last May today. Hammer candle on big volume off 10.9 earlier. Loose 10.8 and the gap fill is at 8.19.

Bought INTC $55 April Calls @ 50 cents

I wouldn't call NIO a junk stock just yet.

CT-11 said:

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Looks like NIO is heading down to join its friends RRTS, SN, MNGA, BBOX, HEAR., etc

Lesson learned here is stop trying to play these junk stocks lol

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I'd argue NIO isn't in the same category as the high risk/high reward stack with the others. That said, when I post that I'm selling half of my shares at $10.50 that gain, on top of previous gains, creates an entirely different perspective.

All of the news is against the sector right now. No China deal, reduction of subsidies by UK/China, post lock-up kicks in. It's a pressure cycle no doubt, so the question remains "Is China the largest market for EV technology?" Long term that is a huge yes.

NIO flash under $5. See how buyers respond.

oldarmy1 said:

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NIO flash under $5. See how buyers respond.

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Let's hope so...should have waited a couple days to hop on the NIO train apparently

I was just there last week and they're clamping down more and more on emissions. More than I think they can reasonably expect. They've got one of my plants in a freaking sling. Before it's all said and done our new plant might be somewhere else in SE Asia. But my point is that they're going after old cars too. The subsidy suspension was due to them trying to keep some cash given the continued trade crap.

oldarmy1 said:

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NIO flash under $5. See how buyers respond.

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Hey OA,

Looking at the May 17th NIO calls, $6 strike is only .25 and the June 21st $6 strike are only .40. It seems like by that time the bad news should be done as well as a China deal. What do you think? It's like buying a 1000 shares for only $250. I've done worse on speculation.

TIA

Prognightmare said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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NIO flash under $5. See how buyers respond.

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Hey OA,

Looking at the May 17th NIO calls, $6 strike is only .25 and the June 21st $6 strike are only .40. It seems like by that time the bad news should be done as well as a China deal. What do you think? It's like buying a 1000 shares for only $250. I've done worse on speculation.

TIA

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That would be the safest way to trade it if no deal is done by then.

When you look at the macro-political landscape China placed a lot of strategy in Trump not being re-elected. China holds North Korea's puppet strings and had Kim make ridiculous offers, so Trump would walk away. The Chinese thought they could sway public opinion and weaken Trump's ability to stay the course on firm trade deals.

With the tide clearly turning China is making weak strategic moves, including this subsidy reduction. They are now coming to realize they screwed the pooch, Trump's reelection is becoming more of a likelihood and there is no way they can last another 4 years.

I predict NK will do one outlandish act orchestrated by the Chinese government and it will fail miserably. Then you will see China with a concession on trade. Trump's "short term pain for a long term gain" approach is going to beat them.

So Nio is essentially a trade deal stock.

La Bamba said:

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So Nio is essentially a trade deal stock.

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Can also be a long term hold if you believe in EV for China

Gap filled on S&P on this pullback. It's decision time for the markets.

I may get some more SUM if it drops again tomorrow

So far there is nothing to determine a break in trend. Upward progression with yellow box consolidation. Spread fairly evenly between moves upward. The consolidation cycles have lasted up to 5 days with most being 3 days. We would be on day 2 since the initial down day was within the last upward candle.

oldarmy1 said:

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Bought INTC $55 April Calls @ 50 cents

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Sell on these is set at $1

Woah....15M share on the 1 minute for GG.

Time to get back in on the AAPL options? Or is this Qualcomm ruling a bigger deal?

I bought 10 contract of NIO $5 strike May 17th expiration at $.57. Let's see what happens.

Get your fellow whales nibbling at it.

aggielax48 said:

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Time to get back in on the AAPL options? Or is this Qualcomm ruling a bigger deal?

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I don't think it breaks AAPL trend, so a $195 out to April 18th hoping for weakness early.

And a second ruling just went in Apple's favor, noting that the technology of Qualcomm was only in older models and that they long since engineered a way around it without the Qualcomm patent.
Have to admit I'm not quite up to date on the way the courts work and that there could be two separate and seemingly contradictory rulings on the same day, but there it is.

Interesting article on EV subsidies cut in China.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-gives-electric-vehicle-makers-a-long-term-power-surge-11553681202

Summary: China's EV long term plan is to phase out subsidies, build a credit system for car makers that meet certain standards, and government to spend more money on charging stations.

AVEO up 30% premarket

Astrazeneca buyout rumor.