look at the VIX

Mother ****er I hate being in China during an earnings call. I've got a good bit of Twitter and getting hammered right now. Beats expectations and then freaking craters.

Ragoo said:

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FriscoKid said:

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You know that bounce was off of the 200 day right?

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who are you addressing? And can you show graphically what you mean?

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I was talking to OA mainly, but here is the chart. The red line is the 200 day moving average for the S&P. Lots of people use it as support or resistance. Crossing below it could signal the beginning of a down trend. The price fell to that level and then bounced. I think it would be dumb to buy or sell based on this one simple average, but a lot of people watch it.



Passing below it will spook some people though and I'd expect further declines today. I am shocked that we actually moved lower though today. I really thought we would take a break for a couple days.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Mother ****er I hate being in China during an earnings call. I've got a good bit of Twitter and getting hammered right now. Beats expectations and then freaking craters.

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Yeah, you are missing out on all kinds of fun. Sorry

FriscoKid said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Mother ****er I hate being in China during an earnings call. I've got a good bit of Twitter and getting hammered right now. Beats expectations and then freaking craters.

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Yeah, you are missing out on all kinds of fun. Sorry

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I love my job, but need to stop buying options when I know the strike dates are during my trips...

FriscoKid said:

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look at the VIX

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I'm glad I didn't buy lol. I was watching the VIX and it was hovering around 1.40-1.45. Now its at 1.00 and I am happy I didn't buy.

snowmnag970 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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look at the VIX

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I'm glad I didn't buy lol. I was watching the VIX and it was hovering around 1.40-1.45. Now its at 1.00 and I am happy I didn't buy.

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I'm going to add to my position at 2641 if we somehow get there. That would be an absolute gift.

Google and Amazon trading halted due to "pricing glitch" for the rest of the day. They better hope the market doesn't tank today or there are going to some serious questions about this.

FriscoKid said:

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Google and Amazon trading halted due to "pricing glitch" for the rest of the day. They better hope the market doesn't tank today or there are going to some serious questions about this.

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That's why my options pricing looked wonky

Someone just bought $2.0MM worth of AMD puts.

Title: "Aggresive buyer lays out $2.2M for deep in the money Advanced Micro puts "


Aggresive buyer lays out $2.2M for deep in the money Advanced Micro puts. Shares near $9.73 after a buyer paid from $1.44 to $1.51 for a total of 15K May 11 puts in a 29-part sweep. May be a painful closing trade as 17K contracts are open at the strike, most from early March when shares were above $11.


Edit: Looking at the biggest option trades for this...it checks out that May 18th, $11 puts were purchased on 12:30:35 seconds in lots of 7,092 @ $1.51; 5,746 @ $1.50; 541 @ $1.51. This totals 13,379 options contracts for a total cost of $2,014,483.00.

Am I seeing this right?

snowmnag970 said:

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Someone just bought $2.0MM worth of AMD puts.

Title: "Aggresive buyer lays out $2.2M for deep in the money Advanced Micro puts "


Aggresive buyer lays out $2.2M for deep in the money Advanced Micro puts. Shares near $9.73 after a buyer paid from $1.44 to $1.51 for a total of 15K May 11 puts in a 29-part sweep. May be a painful closing trade as 17K contracts are open at the strike, most from early March when shares were above $11.


Edit: Looking at the biggest option trades for this...it checks out that May 18th, $11 puts were purchased on 12:30:35 seconds in lots of 7,092 @ $1.51; 5,746 @ $1.50; 541 @ $1.51. This totals 13,379 options contracts for a total cost of $2,014,483.00.

Am I seeing this right?

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Yeah, I'm hoping it pays off.

FriscoKid said:

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snowmnag970 said:

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Someone just bought $2.0MM worth of AMD puts.

Title: "Aggresive buyer lays out $2.2M for deep in the money Advanced Micro puts "


Aggresive buyer lays out $2.2M for deep in the money Advanced Micro puts. Shares near $9.73 after a buyer paid from $1.44 to $1.51 for a total of 15K May 11 puts in a 29-part sweep. May be a painful closing trade as 17K contracts are open at the strike, most from early March when shares were above $11.


Edit: Looking at the biggest option trades for this...it checks out that May 18th, $11 puts were purchased on 12:30:35 seconds in lots of 7,092 @ $1.51; 5,746 @ $1.50; 541 @ $1.51. This totals 13,379 options contracts for a total cost of $2,014,483.00.

Am I seeing this right?

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Yeah, I'm hoping it pays off.

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Well I followed right behind you lol I got some May 18th $9.5 Puts.

The premiums on some of those AMD puts were like $0.18 and I figured there cant A) be that much upside for them overall and B) some notable tech company named FB could possibly affect the whole tech sector with their earnings.

Man, what a bet

leoj said:

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Man, what a bet

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I wonder where he finds underwear strong enough to support his cojones.

leoj said:

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Man, what a bet

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It's probably a fund that is just buying insurance.

Yeah. I remember seeing an article every once in a while about the investor who was hedging vix(?) which eventually paid off just recently.

I did see some articles passed around today saying GPU sales are expected to be down 40% next quarter. Not a decent source on it at all though. Could also be a reaction to this as well.

snowmnag970 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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look at the VIX

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I'm glad I didn't buy lol. I was watching the VIX and it was hovering around 1.40-1.45. Now its at 1.00 and I am happy I didn't buy.

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Did you see what the high of the day was? 264.13

Look at that chart I posted. Hope you got in with those puts.

I know many of you are short term traders on this board and I do not normally trade on the short term, but on the long term side and when I say long term I don't mean buy and hold forever. This market looks toppy for the long haul and I personally think this bull phase may be over. Bull markets don't act like the market has been acting lately. If this support at 2580 SP500 breaks I think we will definitely go into a further bear market phase of over 20% declines from the top. The 200dMA has held so far, but any rally may be short lived off of it. The SP500 could go down to around 2200-2300 and hold for the long term bull trend started in 2009 to stay intact. Personally I think we are in a secular bull that is probably having a cyclical bear occurring at this time within the bull. It does not necessarily mean we are headed for a recession or dire economic conditions 6-12 months from now. The SP500 is starting to roll over and when I see the SP500 that can't break out above the 50dMA (declining as well) after 3-4 attempts after a significant correction the market is in trouble. When stocks sell off considerably on good news and can't rebound that is not a sign of a bull market. I look at the daily, weekly, and monthly MACD and two of them gave a sell signal in January and now the monthly is way over extended and is getting ready to go on a sell. When all three or pointing to the same thing you need to prepare. That is another sign that longer term bear is more than likely upon us. I was hoping we had another year to this run, but it does not look that way at this time.

Personally I am and have been taking profits on long term holds. I was hoping to delay gains into later this year and next year for tax purposes, but I would rather be in cash during this time and wait for the next long term opportunity. If I am wrong I can still get back in later probably at better levels, but you have to look at the odds of this market continuing to go down after over a 9 year bull run. Length of a bull run is not necessarily a reason to sell but the odds of it being over are higher than it continuing at this point. You just don't see stocks with good news reverse from being up 4-5% to being down 7-8% in one trading session in a bull market. I have been through several bear phases since the 1980's and this one smells of one even though some of the other signs you look for are not there. Hopefully we hold support levels and just back and fill for several months and this is not the 30-40% possible drop before another bull phase can take hold. It could be only a 20% decline into the 9 year trend line at 2200-2300 on the SP500. Saying that there are many stocks that could decline 30-40% or more during a decline of 20% on the SP.

snowmnag970 said:

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Someone just bought $2.0MM worth of AMD puts.

Title: "Aggresive buyer lays out $2.2M for deep in the money Advanced Micro puts "


Aggresive buyer lays out $2.2M for deep in the money Advanced Micro puts. Shares near $9.73 after a buyer paid from $1.44 to $1.51 for a total of 15K May 11 puts in a 29-part sweep. May be a painful closing trade as 17K contracts are open at the strike, most from early March when shares were above $11.


Edit: Looking at the biggest option trades for this...it checks out that May 18th, $11 puts were purchased on 12:30:35 seconds in lots of 7,092 @ $1.51; 5,746 @ $1.50; 541 @ $1.51. This totals 13,379 options contracts for a total cost of $2,014,483.00.

Am I seeing this right?

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Ouchies to the bears, up 8% after hours

If tomorrow ain't triple green all day, with....
1. Huge beats this morning
2. Flat day today but mostly red all day
3. Huge beats this afternoon
4. Amazon, Microsoft, and other big tech reporting tomorrow.

Then we aren't going to test those upper channels.

tracking green for now

Les Appelt 1999 said:

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If tomorrow ain't triple green all day, with....
1. Huge beats this morning
2. Flat day today but mostly red all day
3. Huge beats this afternoon
4. Amazon, Microsoft, and other big tech reporting tomorrow.

Then we aren't going to test those upper channels.

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I don't think they even care about earnings. Hell, Google had a huge beat and still went negative. I bet Facebook does the same. Hope AMD gets to keep their gains though.

I don't think we are in "dire circumstances " at all right now. I personally think we are going to take a haircut though. The important level is the February low. If we break through that then there is support somewhere. It very well might be the trend line going back 10 years in this bull market.

I'm of the opinion that we will break through the 200 day MA and probably challenge the feb lows.

I wouldn't dare make a call though after that. I'm looking at 15 minute charts with much smaller capital involved per trade.

I think you read it right though. Watch the support and the downward trend line. Nice little triangle there that will break one way or the other.

Again, you are talking on a completely different timescale than me and a much larger investment.

We could see a bear market and no recession down the road. It happened in the 80's with the one day crash. The economy is in good shape and the trend is still good. 3% interest rates are nothing. They were double digit in the 80's. There is no major inflation and if there was the 30 year bond would be rising. There is not going to be a trade war. All this is media nonsense. As mentioned there are some signs not showing up for the start of a major bear market. Mainly there has really not been any euphoria in the market like you normally see. There is still a lot of negativity in this market. That is why I am thinking we may only get a draft down to the major uptrend line which would correspond to around a 20% correction in the SP500 and huge buying opportunity then the final big push up for the end of this bull. One can hope and hopefully that is all it is, but the monthly and weekly MACD are pointing to something more significant. I am definitely cautious right now.

Just throwing crap against the wall as a fiscal conservative. I'm 99% technical chart analysis with my trades.....


But, it could be that the fake stock market gains over the last 9 years with stupid Fed pumping and QE 123 are coming home to roost. Now we have real growth, employment, earnings, and a better tax policy and the market is returning to a real level after the liberal unicorn ride through the meadows.

We should have corrected a long time ago in a normal market. But, we might rip the bandaid off now because we are being adults finally. That's why I think we are going down at least. Because it sure as hell isn't because of the fundamentals.

...and if we really crash hard then it will be a damn shame. We've got a pro-business/pro-American president that is doing a lot of things right. I hope we just rebase ...and I think we will.


(Again, this is just shooting the **** at the bar instead of watching charts)

drill4oil78 said:

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We could see a bear market and no recession down the road. It happened in the 80's with the one day crash. The economy is in good shape and the trend is still good. 3% interest rates are nothing. They were double digit in the 80's. There is no major inflation and if there was the 30 year bond would be rising. There is not going to be a trade war. All this is media nonsense. As mentioned there are some signs not showing up for the start of a major bear market. Mainly there has really not been any euphoria in the market like you normally see. There is still a lot of negativity in this market. That is why I am thinking we may only get a draft down to the major uptrend line which would correspond to around a 20% correction in the SP500 and huge buying opportunity then the final big push up for the end of this bull. One can hope and hopefully that is all it is, but the monthly and weekly MACD are pointing to something more significant. I am definitely cautious right now.

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Interest rates are not at 3%. They are at 3.00% + Spread, which is normally 160-180+.

Furthermore, the 30yr has risen 20bps in the last week and a half. So the 30yr bond is rising, as with every other treasury.

All the selling pressures and SWN is already peeking at retesting the $4.60 area resistance this morning.

Earnings day

Any early insight going into earnings

Any guesses today? We were gapping up 200-300 points on the DOW a few weeks ago for no good reason. Now there are amazing earnings and we are only up 77.

It's some curious movement for sure.

FriscoKid said:

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Any guesses today? We were gapping up 200-300 points on the DOW a few weeks ago for no good reason. Now there are amazing earnings and we are only up 77.

It's some curious movement for sure.

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Good key word - "guesses", because thats all it would be right now.

tailgatetimer10 said:

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Any early insight going into earnings

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Only insight is they had great earnings last cycle that launched them off lows for a 40% gain. If it can break this seemingly eternal $4.60-$4.65 area resistance it would make $5.50-$6 on trend fairly quickly.