0708aggie said:

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How is that significant enough that we have this sort of sell off? CAT crushed earnings and was up a good 4.5% now down 6.5%. This is slightly ridiculous ( I have no position in CAT, but was considering).

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I bought a put on google yesterday. They beat expectations by 50% and my put is in the money.

Now, that is ridiculous.

0708aggie said:

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How is that significant enough that we have this sort of sell off? CAT crushed earnings and was up a good 4.5% now down 6.5%. This is slightly ridiculous ( I have no position in CAT, but was considering).

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The market feeds off each other. 3M crapped the bed and took the Dow with it. Google down 4%, CAT did crush earnings but then said "this is our high water mark for the year" (meaning we won't expect to be here for the remainder of this year).

Bond selloffs are causing the yield to rise, which shows investors that inflation concerns are real and that the high valuation for stocks could potentially no longer be justified...which forces company earnings have to be extraordinary to justify gains. Hell, Oil was up and I bought some more shares of $WRD at $24.90 before this all happened and crude took a nose dive.

As Oldarmy and Frisco have said...you should be THIN THIN THIN in this market. Be extra careful out there folks. If you are so inclined to panic sell or panic buy...check out GLD. Warren Buffet doesn't like it but it holds its value relatively well in this type of trading environment.

FriscoKid said:

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snowmnag970 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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snowmnag970 said:

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I think its a bond sell off

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the 10 yr hit 3% finally?

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Yessir. Been hovering around 2.98-2.99 most of the day after hitting 3% this AM.

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That's not the worst thing in the world though really. 8 years of QE propping up the market with zero interest rates from the fed was poison. This is a healthy economy under Trump, but the market needs a little correction.

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Agreed. I work in Commercial Real Estate and this whole year I have been seeing deals that really only work with low rates. Now that the 10-yr has gone up, these deals have either withered away or had proceeds cut.

Its good for the stock market it to because no longer can you just have tons of money thrown at your company if you have ill-favored metrics (high debt/liabilities or low/negative cash-flow)

Oldarmy, did you end up making that JD call trade?

snowmnag970 said:

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Oldarmy, did you end up making that JD call trade?

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I sure did and lost all 15 cents x 100 or $1500. Looking across the top selling I was telling some contacts that action looked really negative; especially combined with the trend chart posted yesterday.

Still JD was my THIN THIN THIN leverage trade just in case markets sustained a move higher.

The good news is I had a large Put position trigger filled on the trend hitting new lows earlier today and just closed those out for 10x the JD loss. I say loss because it would take a large rebound move to get any juice back in the premiums and that looks unlikely.

T-H-I-N

Don't be a hero with your money on the 3rd retest. 73% of 3rd retests fail. If you are feeling a buying opportunity then SPXL short term calls get you triple the move on any rebound for a large % pay to the risk taken.

But know that those have a 27% chance of working out.

Check this out. The first real bounce occurred at the S3 pivot point. (I think the algos use these pivot points because they have been pretty accurate for me at least)

If this breaks then the next target is about DOW -850 for the day or S&P to close at 2589. We could still catch support at the 2608 level also. I think there are still wholesale sellers there.

Just the way I'm reading the tea leaves at least.

FCX down 15% on the day. Ouch

FriscoKid said:

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Check this out. The first real bounce occurred at the S3 pivot point. (I think the algos use these pivot points because they have been pretty accurate for me at least)

If this breaks then the next target is about DOW -850 for the day or S&P to close at 2589. We could still catch support at the 2608 level also. I think there are still wholesale sellers there.

Just the way I'm reading the tea leaves at least.

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VIX has been pretty jumpy for the last few minutes.

A month ago the thought that markets could sell off 500 points and GE would be up would have been laughable.

any more thoughts on SDRL or just a long wait-and-see as they go through the restructuring process?

Sold twitter puts close Friday at 28.5 strike. Hoping to not get a movement south following earnings tomorrow.

I can't imagine further selling tomorrow. I would expect us to test the 200 day and the feb lows though shortly.

FriscoKid said:

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I can't imagine further selling tomorrow. I would expect us to test the 200 day and the feb lows though shortly.

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You don't think we could break through and have a real selloff?

oldarmy1 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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I can't imagine further selling tomorrow. I would expect us to test the 200 day and the feb lows though shortly.

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You don't think we could break through and have a real selloff?

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Not tomorrow I don't. If we do then I'm buying drinks, but I think we bounce or go somewhat flat tomorrow. 6 negative days in a row is just too much.

I really did expect us to go much lower though today. I'm surprised that we held where we did.

where do yall get your info from ? i usually just watch Mad Money and do the opposite

azulAg said:

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where do yall get your info from ? i usually just watch Mad Money and do the opposite

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Not a bad idea, but that is just gambling. Cramer is an idiot and I take absolutely zero leads from him. I know he was a hedge fund manager, but now he's a talking head so he must have sucked at his day job.

Futures are negative at 10:51 CDT, but I think we bounce to ~2672 in the morning. If we sell off I'm buying OA drinks.

We filled gaps and broke support all day long. I just don't see it happening that we continue this tomorrow. I've got May puts that are way in the money right now so if we crash then it's even better (for shorts).

Futures right on retest levels. Won't have to wait too long to know if it's a breakdown or rebound. Lot of money will change hands today.

Futures rebound on BA earnings. Once again buying S&P Futures at retest gives a quick solid return.

So with no where to go in terms of channel downward does the Boeing bounce hold?

Will you be buying SPY calls today? Or not too confident in a full rally yet?

I still don't understand why you want to buy calls. You win only when the stock moves in one direction. If you are that confident in direction just buy the underlying and sell covered calls. Selling calls or puts you can win in 2/3s of scenarios, the second being sideways or time decay.

klsmith89 said:

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Will you be buying SPY calls today? Or not too confident in a full rally yet?

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I believe the trend is down and I'd be looking for areas to sell in a downtrend. If I believed the trend was up then I'd be looking for areas to buy.

what say you said:

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any more thoughts on SDRL or just a long wait-and-see as they go through the restructuring process?

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I am holding some 2019 calls and just long in general. I am hoping they can come out of the restructure positively, but with the whole agreement, existing shareholders only get 1.9% of the new equity...which means a valuation of $0.20/share. So maybe just hold off until June/July when they are expected to be done with restructuring.

Maybe Oil will be around $75 or so, which would help them out as demand for offshore could increase.

Ragoo said:

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I still don't understand why you want to buy calls. You win only when the stock moves in one direction. If you are that confident in direction just buy the underlying and sell covered calls. Selling calls or puts you can win in 2/3s of scenarios, the second being sideways or time decay.

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In terms of Futures the best moves occur between market hours, so its the only way to profit. Just like this morning early. S&P were down 34 points, putting them right on retest. That's when you buy the Futures and then sell a good portion as pre-market begins. -4.75 now so 29.25 points in profits all before the markets open. Those gains are a full days move many times.

Now about stock versus options. If we were at retest during trading hours then shares would flash down and buying shares then is what I do all the time. And then when support holds and bounces I'll sell a decent portion of those shares to lock in gains and protect against a break down or an overnight "trap" break of major support. Those that run on up then yes I'll then sell covered calls against a predetermined portion (or al if a straight trade). Last example was SN reaching $4 and I posted selling covered calls on those shares - which paid off well.

What I don't want to do is tie up capital on owning shares during non-test areas (basically anywhere within the channel at this time). The covered call might lower my holding price but if I had bought JPM at 120 and sold the $120 calls even out a month the overall holdings would be a net negative right now.

Buy and hold would be approached differently. I do own JPM, but from $73 so when I see topping above $120 I sold the $115 covered calls. If I get called out then I would be able to look for re-entry.

Ragoo said:

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I still don't understand why you want to buy calls. You win only when the stock moves in one direction. If you are that confident in direction just buy the underlying and sell covered calls. Selling calls or puts you can win in 2/3s of scenarios, the second being sideways or time decay.

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I prefer options/futures because of more leverage. Many years ago I did look for stocks that I could sell calls against, but it didn't fit my style.

Anyone buying?

If we break 2600 look out.

Ragoo said:

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Sold twitter puts close Friday at 28.5 strike. Hoping to not get a movement south following earnings tomorrow.

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closed this morning at the bell prior to the sell off

FriscoKid said:

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Ragoo said:

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I still don't understand why you want to buy calls. You win only when the stock moves in one direction. If you are that confident in direction just buy the underlying and sell covered calls. Selling calls or puts you can win in 2/3s of scenarios, the second being sideways or time decay.

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I prefer options/futures because of more leverage. Many years ago I did look for stocks that I could sell calls against, but it didn't fit my style.

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i am too conservative to trade on margin. everything I do is cash secured anyways.

You know that bounce was off of the 200 day right?

oldarmy1 said:

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Anyone buying?

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I want to buy some SPY puts but I know as soon as I do, the market will bounce back up.

snowmnag970 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Anyone buying?

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I want to buy some SPY puts but I know as soon as I do, the market will bounce back up.

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Do it for the better good!

FriscoKid said:

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You know that bounce was off of the 200 day right?

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who are you addressing? And can you show graphically what you mean?