SoupNazi2001 said:

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S&P closed at 2588. 200 day moving average is at 2585 and February low is 2% lower at 2532. I think consensus opinion is a lower open Monday, test the lows and then bounce. We are starting to get pretty oversold here so I think a bounce soon is probable. However I think odds are something else happens first like either we knife straight through the lows for a few days and then bounce or we have a small bounce Monday or Tuesday and everyone thinks we had a successful test of the lows but that bounce is sold quickly and aggressively before a more meaningful bounce takes place. Consensus is we hold 200 day moving average/ February lows and the consensus is typically wrong.

If we hold below the 200 day moving average/February lows for more than a few days, the odds of a deeper correction or possible bear market increase significantly IMO and it's long overdue.

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We are right at 10% correction and the above post is a good one. Anything flash down Monday is irrelevant if we end up back above the orange. Above the green would be bullish trade-wise. But should the correction turn into another leg down then it will not be coming back anytime short-term IMO. Major support becomes resistance once violated with a close below it.

In the program trading era I have seen repeating volume charts multiple times. Right now I'm watching the blue ovals and note the arrows pointing to the increasing volumes as the initial leg down hits. The first selloff saw a second larger volume day occur as new lows hit. I'll be on early watch for that repeating pattern Monday.

Historically, the above posters scenario of a bloody open recovery back above support is spot on. If we were to have deep deep futures Sunday night I would be an overnight buyer of futures (again - we've discussed why traders should have 24/7 access to futures trading). Conversely, if we are anywhwere close to Friday's close at the open and head lower I'm not expecting it to come back. Obviously volume will dictate my actions on what we're seeing.

If a deeper correction does occur I see just above 22k DOW as the target. A 50% retracement of a short 13 month 8500 DOW move wouldn't surprise me in the least, nor should it buy and hold investors. It would naturally end in panic selling so I could see flash selling actually taking us close to 21k over a few days in that scenario. I know one thing, I would have 100% of my finances, negotiable instruments and even corporate reserves ready to push into such an opportunity.

I will say that the sideways action mentioned earlier on is a best case scenario into the fall elections IMO. I would be shocked to see markets break to new highs into those, so all those who love to point out incorrect posts can bookmark this statement.

I didn't include a scenario for an actual bear market because where are the indicators for that? Consumer confidence low? Nope. Inflation? Nope. Bond yields more attractive? Nope. Economic growth slowing? Nope. Profits shrinking? Nope. On and on and on those can go. Granted that 50% retracement scenario would be loudly (and proudly by the MSM and Dems) proclaimed as a bear market, and while technically I suppose it would be I would not treat it as a bear market due to the macro's domestically and globally.