Question, after you have pulled out a certain amount to cash, how do you buy back in? Cost averaging....over a set time period? Lump sum?
Stock Markets
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Last: 1 hr ago by Touchless
I'm a bit concerned with this too. All of the funds in my 401k have a 30 day no trade window so I can't exit and re-enter within 30 days. There are enough options that I could move into something else that would be a similar proxy for what I want to be in once there's a correction, but I really don't want to have to babysit my 401k much.
We've gone sideways for 2 years with 2500+ point back and forth swings. 30 days is nothing.
If you are hinting that the markets could move up big time based on the results (Hillary win) of the election, the 30 days could be YUGE.oldarmy1 said:
We've gone sideways for 2 years with 2500+ point back and forth swings. 30 days is nothing.
Is the Yellow/red defcon rating you gave still in affect if we can assume a Hillary win?
Note: I am willing to place all my bets on a Hillary win.
I am now 60 years old and began investing with my Dad at a very early age. It's been my experience in over 40 years of investing that going "all in" or getting "all out and then getting back all in" is impossible to do and achieve good results. And your piece of mind is something you never want to lose.
Please consider being an invester and not a trader with the bulk of your retirement funds. Personally I would use oldarmy1 and the boards ideas for gaining a good entry point in a stock that I want to own, ideally, forever.
But if trading appeals to you and you are willing to put in the effort to do it well, then do it with a just portion of your funds. If your retirement is primarily in great stocks, like say Bristol Meyers that has had a tough year, I like your chances of hanging in there and taking the long term view.
Please consider being an invester and not a trader with the bulk of your retirement funds. Personally I would use oldarmy1 and the boards ideas for gaining a good entry point in a stock that I want to own, ideally, forever.
But if trading appeals to you and you are willing to put in the effort to do it well, then do it with a just portion of your funds. If your retirement is primarily in great stocks, like say Bristol Meyers that has had a tough year, I like your chances of hanging in there and taking the long term view.
Boys, this may be extremely dumb, but I'm going to do it anyway. Amazon's earnings are down for this quarter and the stock dropped 7% so far in after hours trading. Earning are 52 cents a share vs. 78 cents a share expected. Revenue is way up, but Amazon decided to invest a ton more money than expected into it's company therefore reducing earnings.
I think the investors are being silly nannies. AMZN is way over priced based on future expectations and the company just invested a lot of money in their future! They're not worried about earnings.
I think I'm going to buy a lot of AMZN tomorrow. The stock way overcorrected and will be cheap in the morning.
I think the investors are being silly nannies. AMZN is way over priced based on future expectations and the company just invested a lot of money in their future! They're not worried about earnings.
I think I'm going to buy a lot of AMZN tomorrow. The stock way overcorrected and will be cheap in the morning.
The only issue I see with AMZN is that it appears that AWS growth could be beginning to slow. YoY growth for the quarter and YTD is quite a bit lower than last year.
Ok, I'll ask again. I had about 1/3 of my 401k in a target fund. I didn't like it so I moved to cash. How do I transition back in to a fund I do like? Lump sum? DCA over a certain time period?
GDP 2.9% vs 2.5% estimate. If that isn't a last ditch number to help Hillary then I'm the Pope. That revision will be glorious.
I mean we should break out to new highs on that reality, right? Ok, maybe not a new high but at least get to upper channel a few hundred points, easy, right.
Futures on the news: DOW +24 haha
You would think Soros and others would carry that last pail of water and push the markets higher. That said, we are closer to support than upper resistance. With that set up I'd think we would see a push higher today and at least early next week, potentially across that mid-channel resistance.
Mid channel break upwards occurs at 2155 S&P and 18275 DOW
I mean we should break out to new highs on that reality, right? Ok, maybe not a new high but at least get to upper channel a few hundred points, easy, right.
Futures on the news: DOW +24 haha
You would think Soros and others would carry that last pail of water and push the markets higher. That said, we are closer to support than upper resistance. With that set up I'd think we would see a push higher today and at least early next week, potentially across that mid-channel resistance.
Mid channel break upwards occurs at 2155 S&P and 18275 DOW
Early selling hits the market. Does no one trust the GDP numbers? Grabbed some SPX Calls 2145 expirations at 40 cents on that early sell off
Exiting half at $1 filled. A rare oldarmy1 daytrade.
I purchased one $800 strike price call for AMZN February of next year. Let's see how it does!
Historically, AMZN has traded the direction of it's gaps. Green gap ups end up pointing upwards while the lone last gap down resulted in the downward move. Should AMZN fill this gap then you will be happy for breaking that historical pattern.Maroon Stormtrooper said:
I purchased one $800 strike price call for AMZN February of next year. Let's see how it does!
Personally I would be more inclined to enter a $750 Put late November/early December.
Nailed it! They pumped up the GDP number with the notoriously unreliable trade and inventory segments of our economy. Without that baloney the GDP is 1.4%!
My money is on the post election revised number coming in much closer to 1.4% than 2.9%.
My money is on the post election revised number coming in much closer to 1.4% than 2.9%.
This is an enormous news event. Heavily favored presidential nominee under investigation less than 2 weeks from election. Tremendous uncertainty for market. Watch out for 2100 /ES. That breaks and we are free falling.
claym711 said:
This is an enormous news event. Heavily favored presidential nominee under investigation less than 2 weeks from election. Tremendous uncertainty for market. Watch out for 2100 /ES. That breaks and we are free falling.
What am I missing?
The cell phone e-mail dump, I'm guessing. It won't matter.
Joseph - You had a 2 day volume spike that set support on that first day. SN was pressing higher until the Hilldog news sent the markets running scared. Let's see if that support holds if futures are red Monday morning.
It was 10s of thousands of printed HRC emails from Huma and Anothony Weiners printer device....PeekingDuck said:
The cell phone e-mail dump, I'm guessing. It won't matter.
Are we talking $1,000's or $100,000's? If $1,000's, then get back in. If $100,000's then talk to your advisor.
Was chatting with a top trader (name not disclosed at request but billionaire status) about the next big move in the markets. He feels that with the China government content to send the yuan into oblivion, combined with long time Treasuries being dumped at record levels the thought of raising interest rates is unlikely. In fact he thinks the initial action in 2017 will be another round of QE (Quantitative Easing).
We all know what a drug "free" money is to the stock markets. If he is correct then the markets would breakout of this current top, making 20,000 DOW the target. The good news is that his approach is very similar to what we've been doing. After bantering back and forth about various trading set-ups and scenarios one could be taking he ended with the following:
"Of course, one doesn't have to trade it at all: sitting back and watching events unfold may be just as satisfactory."
Indeed!
We've had $5 Billion outflow from U.S. Equity Funds over the past couple of months - hence the tight sideways market with each top seeing immediate selloff 90% of the time on the daily's.
We all know what a drug "free" money is to the stock markets. If he is correct then the markets would breakout of this current top, making 20,000 DOW the target. The good news is that his approach is very similar to what we've been doing. After bantering back and forth about various trading set-ups and scenarios one could be taking he ended with the following:
"Of course, one doesn't have to trade it at all: sitting back and watching events unfold may be just as satisfactory."
Indeed!
We've had $5 Billion outflow from U.S. Equity Funds over the past couple of months - hence the tight sideways market with each top seeing immediate selloff 90% of the time on the daily's.
Joseph....that $6.70 alarm went off.
Yes sir, I'm back in.oldarmy1 said:
Joseph....that $6.70 alarm went off.
Guys, need some help with ETSY. Missed buying in before prior earnings and now back to $13. Huge trade around 11:30 ET time today (10% of volume). The past 4 quarters the stock has went up roughly 5% day of earnings. Any thoughts?
what to buy ?
Futures DOW +55. Historically stocks move higher on week headed into election.
Joseph, hang off and see if SN can break $7. The Jan. $10 calls should get you $1.70-2 there.
Joseph, hang off and see if SN can break $7. The Jan. $10 calls should get you $1.70-2 there.
I have been watching $CS and $KR close lately. I think I am going to pull the trigger in the next day or two.
KR up about 3% at open
Good read showing that we've been pretty much in-line with Fund managers EXCEPT that we can be more nimble and take a higher percent of exposure out of the markets. They are at 5.8% cash which is super high.
Bottom line is when we say we are keeping our "powder dry" we are talking about thousands to a few million, while they are talking multiple billions. Therefore, the "game" becomes recognizing when they have decided to start pouring it back in. They can't do it in one day or even a week. Once it does begin you can enter with confidence.
For now, they are content looking for a selloff entry point. So are we!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4018983-bubble-cash-sidelines-getting-bigger?page=2
Bottom line is when we say we are keeping our "powder dry" we are talking about thousands to a few million, while they are talking multiple billions. Therefore, the "game" becomes recognizing when they have decided to start pouring it back in. They can't do it in one day or even a week. Once it does begin you can enter with confidence.
For now, they are content looking for a selloff entry point. So are we!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4018983-bubble-cash-sidelines-getting-bigger?page=2
AAPL hardly participating in the Comey rally. If you believe in AAPL that's a lagger trade right there.
90 cents to up $1.55. Love when the markets give you top brand lag trades!oldarmy1 said:
AAPL hardly participating in the Comey rally. If you believe in AAPL that's a lagger trade right there.
Any good ideas to play any individual stocks for either a Trump or Hillary win? Four years ago I was convinced Romney would pull the upset and I bought coal stocks the Monday before the election. When Obama won I sold immediately the next morning on the open and lost 1 or 2%.
assuming hillary wins i dont expect much, if trump won well what a field day the market would have. That being said im not sure what stocks to put in ,impending clintons victory
oldarmy1 said:
Yes, but if there was any question before today regarding who the market wants to win this election, it is now crystal clear.
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