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21,953,937 Views | 223941 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by ravingfans
bmks270
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I'm thinking of opening a straddle tomorrow early and then close it on Wednesday to take advantage of a big overnight movement. May shift through some stocks to find a good candidate or just place it on the SPY. I was looking at the options SPY straddles today. I think it's the safest play, can limit losses to one day of theta and volatility drop (which may be large). But a big move either direction will likely profit.

Okay I'm long the 11 NOV 213 call and 212.5 put. Will see how it shakes out tomorrow morning after results are in...
Comeby!
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SG put out a good Trump vs Hillary and what it means for the market study today.
Harkrider 93
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OldArmy - I have never seen a time like this when just about every single person believes we will see low returns for the next 10 years (4-6%/yr).

When is the last time we have all been right?

It somewhat reminds me of the late 90s when the market was going to continue to climb. Many folks were running plans on returns of 8-12%/yr. Now, most won't run #s past 6%.

I can't see why we would grow more than 4-6%, but curious of your thoughts.
bmks270
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Harkrider 93 said:

OldArmy - I have never seen a time like this when just about every single person believes we will see low returns for the next 10 years (4-6%/yr).

When is the last time we have all been right?

It somewhat reminds me of the late 90s when the market was going to continue to climb. Many folks were running plans on returns of 8-12%/yr. Now, most won't run #s past 6%.

I can't see why we would grow more than 4-6%, but curious of your thoughts.


Just to pile on, friend who is a Wall Street analyst was telling me last week he doesmt think equities will be a major growth area for the next 50 years.
bmks270
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bmks270 said:

I'm thinking of opening a straddle tomorrow early and then close it on Wednesday to take advantage of a big overnight movement. May shift through some stocks to find a good candidate or just place it on the SPY. I was looking at the options SPY straddles today. I think it's the safest play, can limit losses to one day of theta and volatility drop (which may be large). But a big move either direction will likely profit.




Okay I'm long the 11 NOV 213 call and 212.5 put. Will see how it shakes out tomorrow morning after results are in...
oldarmy1
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We know that the Fed and foreign globalists have been holding the market in a Zombie state for the last quarter of the election year. I read one article describing it as the most eerie thing he's ever seen. Obama even abandoned his desire for being able to show deficit improvements in his final year (legacy status desires) to pump money into the markets. They knew the markets tanking in relation to actual GDP would be a death spiral for Hillary.

This makes all of the data extremely skewed and when the data becomes skewed, in fact one might call it "falsified" then pro traders will ALWAYS fall back on to chart technicals. I didn't even recognize I had subconsciously made that adjustment but when you read back through postings you can see a move away from posting as much data in favor of posting charts with technicals. Once I did recognize it consciously I have made macro comments strictly based on technicals, with very little data weighting because the data says we should be off by 12% on the year.

The top I posted the day before the 400 point drop would have normally been followed by saying it is a MACRO reversal to the downside, but I have left it at yellow/caution with my take to sideline the majority of 401k stock funds into cash equivalent money market funds.

So what does all that mean? Well it means I don't know the eventual trend due to the unprecedented intervention of the Fed and globalists in the markets. I DO know that having spotted that most recent top means exposure was eliminated and big profits locked in. I also know that recognizing the technical channel trend allowed for great covered call profits over a 5 cycle period - another unprecedented occurrence BTW.

Lastly, we know this market has become political and that is dangerous. Therefore I have the largest cash position (90%) I've had since July 2015. I'm in absolutely no hurry to implement a strategy unless we have an emotional overreaction to the election.
Harkrider 93
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That is the longest term prediction I have ever heard. I will say that if nothing changes (the way the gvt spends money), it is probably accurate. I still have hope that we will change some things at some point where we can see better returns.

Comanche_Ag
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Dow futures down 400 points
oldarmy1
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Comanche_Ag said:

Dow futures down 400 points
Bonfire1996
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MAGA
DRE06
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So explain to me....if I log into my fidelity account right now and sell, is there risk or do those trades get immediately executed?
oldarmy1
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DRE06 said:

So explain to me....if I log into my fidelity account right now and sell, is there risk or do those trades get immediately executed?
Oh you do NOT want to do that now! They wouldn't execute until the open. And if you are talking about your 401k they wouldn't sell until the close tomorrow. So you might as well watch.
SPI-FlatsCatter 84
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Comanche_Ag said:

Dow futures down 400 points
Now, I better understand the whole "Boomer Sooner" thing.

I'm poised at the "border" in the 100 meter dash ready position

Waiting for the gun to go off
Comanche_Ag
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oldarmy1 said:




Yes sir!
aggie_fan13
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Dow Futures down more than 600 points
Brush Country Ag
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Time to buy.
aggie_fan13
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What to buy ?
oldarmy1
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Sectors to buy
Energy like XOM
Prison/Security like GEO
DEFENSE Boeing/Honeywell
Manufacturing/Supply Side/Services focused

If you went cash then you should go 25% in premarket if you have access. If not then market on open. Just get in without worrying about it with 25%. Then we'll be watching to see if we have some follow through down to place the next 50% or if we add 25% on a move upward.

Best strategy right there on a macro scale.

If you have ES mini capability then you would buy now with 25% with S&P down 100.

oldarmy1
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Also drug stocks like GILD
TheVarian
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Quick side note, what are your thoughts on physical gold/silver purchases?
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AgsMyDude
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oldarmy1 said:

Also drug stocks like GILD
Was just thinking that, any others you look at?
aggie_fan13
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What about AAPL
Canyon99
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I went 80% cash in my 401k last month. I agree this is an event reaction but wondering if you have suggestions on when to reallocate back toward an aggressive stance? My initial thought is to sit tight right now.
Ogre09
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Any reason you're picking individual stocks vs. index like S&P 500?

You're saying jump in 25% now, then wait for the next move? When would that next move come?
oldarmy1
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Ogre09 said:

Any reason you're picking individual stocks vs. index like S&P 500?

You're saying jump in 25% now, then wait for the next move? When would that next move come?
Absolutely index entry would be great as well.

When will the next move come? I work hard at this but I'm not clairvoyant!

We'll have to see once the political infringement unwinds.
oldarmy1
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azulAg said:

What about AAPL
YES! Flagship stocks that take a big hit should be automatic on the list.
Ogre09
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Guess I was asking if I need to be refreshing hourly tomorrow or check back at the end of the day.


Thoughts on buying pesos? Looks like that is cratering, but don't know when/if it will recover.
FancyKetchup14
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Sounds crazy but marijuana stocks? lots of states voted on it tonight and it passed in many of them.
DonaldFDraper
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oldarmy1 said:

Ogre09 said:

Any reason you're picking individual stocks vs. index like S&P 500?

You're saying jump in 25% now, then wait for the next move? When would that next move come?
Absolutely index entry would be great as well.

When will the next move come? I work hard at this but I'm not clairvoyant!

We'll have to see once the political infringement unwinds.


When talking about the 25%... Are you advocating injecting in 25% of new capital or shifting 25% of "sidelined" capital or both?
Gator2_01
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I've got some Long SPY puts that I'll close out at market open as long as there is a definite winner. If nobody gets to 270 I'll hold because the market hates uncertainty.

My next move will be selling VIX calls or purchasing XIV as long as VIX stays up in the 20s by market open.
oldarmy1
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DonaldFDraper said:

oldarmy1 said:

Ogre09 said:

Any reason you're picking individual stocks vs. index like S&P 500?

You're saying jump in 25% now, then wait for the next move? When would that next move come?
Absolutely index entry would be great as well.

When will the next move come? I work hard at this but I'm not clairvoyant!

We'll have to see once the political infringement unwinds.


When talking about the 25%... Are you advocating injecting in 25% of new capital or shifting 25% of "sidelined" capital or both?
If you have $100k total capital then $25k goes into the market.
DonaldFDraper
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Perfect! Thank you.

This may be more for the "Macro Market " thread. But for tax advantaged accounts... If allocations were changed to say 50/50 stocks & bonds, are we increasing to 75/25 in favor or stocks or staying in similar allocation pre market event?
khkman22
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I've got $1,000 left for my Roth. Should I just dump it all in tomorrow?

Only about 27% cash in my Simple IRA. What percentage of that should I look to put in tomorrow? 25%?
oldarmy1
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Well Hillary isn't conceding. That most likely gives another layer of carnage early on, so if the market halts are released with further deterioration pre-market the strategy should be the same because Hillary just set up an automatic bounce from whatever levels we hit assuming she does concede tomorrow morning. If she does not then we'll just be mired around whatever support level we have fallen to until it's over and then bounce.

What a crazy election cycle.
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