Here's the market quandry. AMZN has been THE bellweather stock as a leading indicator of macro trend. Look at the near perfection the large gaps have resulted in directional trend moves. Well, it has a recent gap down and that simply should not be ignored on both trading and macro fronts. If AMZN fills that gap and breaks the pattern then bull market leg here we come. But until/unless that happens I would be willing to bet a steak that we will see a trend downward over the next weeks to months.

oldarmy1 said:

---

Here's the market quandry. AMZN has been THE bellweather stock as a leading indicator of macro trend. Look at the near perfection the large gaps have resulted in directional trend moves. Well, it has a recent gap down and that simply should not be ignored on both trading and macro fronts. If AMZN fills that gap and breaks the pattern then bull market leg here we come. But until/unless that happens I would be willing to bet a steak that we will see a trend downward over the next weeks to months.

---

great find, yeah i used to trade it extensively until it became so YUGE but yeah it's become a leader

sweet more volatility, kind of figured that'd be the result of the election, hopefully not insane news driven vol swells like we've seen last few weeks, but good healthy sustained vol ...also love aspect of Trump in that he'll be the only person in that sphere that will actually try and challenge the FED, which news in itself will give us vol just like all those market temper tantrums when they threaten to take away free money and raise rates just a fraction...love it

thanks for the heads up, as always keep those deltas balanced boys, and if the signal comes in kick off that parking break

The bull signal early in trading yesterday played out technically pure. Based on current futures we would open in record territory and unless a reversal were to occur today a return to a bull market move upward is coming. It is looking like AMZN is going to break the gap trend as long as the markets do not reverse off a strong open. SHOULD THAT AMZN gap get filled then, just as it was creating caution, it would complete a full on bull market signal. Entry into the markets would be less critical than going ahead and putting your capital back to work. Remember that we've had 2 years of sideways movement and this would be a breakout of that pattern, something not to be ignored.

This election has everyone and everything turned on its ears. The fact that we have a fully Republican lead government is historical in its own right, considering the political climate. The markets are clearly showing that they are betting own Trump, and who wouldn't given the impossible?

As the world and investors digest what just happened there are some keys to fundamentals based on a Trump lead country.

1) Has anyone mentioned the incoming President is a construction guy, who has listed building infrastructure as one of his prime tenants? Well you can post your best funds available in your 401k's that are heavy in U.S. companies that serve this area. This would be my 100% best and heaviest placement of your long-term investment monies. Individual stocks like Caterpillar are no-brainers and part of my largest call options yesterday. Take a look at the volume in that one stock yesterday to get an idea of big money's thinking/agreement. Another thing about CAT is the $100 mark it has not broken. Like a magnet it will be drawn to that and then flash above it (something for the trading thread short term). Notice also that it just broke over it's previous resistance highs. DE is another stock in the magic 90's. Deere will run like one. CSX another. EDIT TO ADD: Beyond the other sectors listed the other obvious I forgot to list would be those supporting defense, with military build up.

2) Capital Gains and Corporate Taxes: Another promise Trump made was to reduce the capital gains and corporate tax. WOOHOO! That sounded good but now it sounds great, because he has a full government control to make it a reality. Trickle down economics is going to be a flood once this is passed. Businesses sitting on billions will unleash the hounds.

3) $2.5 trillion. TWO POINT FIVE TRILLION could be a magic number. Trump's stated negotiation with U.S. companies with overseas accounts parked with this amount, to avoid U.S. taxes will be fascinating to watch. IF he manages to pull off a repatriation of those dollars then he'd go down as the most successful fiscal policy President in history IMO. His idea of inner city redevelopment attached to tax incentives and a reduced tax on any of these dollars coming back into the country would fuel topic #1 above even further.

There is a current reality in economic growth and Trump isn't even in office yet so the enthusiasm in all of the above is taking the markets higher. Those huge "ship" fund managers take weeks to get positioned, so dip buying opportunities as we continue to have a mix of bad data and anticipatory/forward looking optimism will allow for entry.

If you believe that a CEO President, hellbent on rebuilding the country's infrastrure (CAUSE), will put people back to work (EFFECT) then increase/take positions in the sectors listed yesterday and today. Then look for entry opportunities certainly to come. The FED is certain to raise interest rates at their next meeting. This should provide another entry opportunity.

My take? BET ON TRUMP