Hillary just conceded. I have to admit old army, I was a little concerned when I moved my allocation to 25% stock based on your yellow/red rating, then found out the day after that could have been based on a Hillary win. I had already submitted the move, so there was no going back for 30 days, but glad I did it now.

Thank you!

jake2011 said:

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Just bought emini 2030 one point from limit down

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Still holding at 2098 ?

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jake2011 said:

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Just bought emini 2030 one point from limit down

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JP76 said:

Still holding at 2098 ?

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This is why everyone should get with a brokerage that has 24/7 trade access to trade futures. We buy near limit down and fet a double overnight with a move back higher. DOW was -780 and now -376. That's a lot of "juice" right there.

I'll be watching the premarket and post reads because the trade dynamics might have changed on the 25% entry after Hillary's non-concession to concession.

Some of the stocks identified as Trump favored are green already GILD is +2.16

Trump's acceptance speech was SO POSITIVE that the market is not behaving like I was anticipating.

OA, would you wait or wade in now to go net long?

One Tooth Man said:

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Trump's acceptance speech was SO POSITIVE that the market is not behaving like I was anticipating.

OA, would you wait or wade in now to go net long?

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I'd go in as planned with 25% to index, flagship and those listed. GEO is up over $3. That was about the easiest anticipated stock on a Trump win out there.

Another I'll add to the list is AWK.

UPDATE: DOW futures only off 196 now. They are taking the juice out of the opening bell opportunity. Premarket buyers when down 386 should be good. The more futures press higher the less I suggest the 25% strategy. It becomes a wait and see market without the easy money trade we had with the overreaction over night trade.

Again, if you are going to be a trader you need E-mini futures access. Buying those when we had -780 DOW and over 100 S&P points down were the easiest trades you can get. Now those are getting cashed in before the opening bell because the profits are huge. Every day stock traders missed the easy trade and the trade is less clear.

SO NO BUY AT OPEN AT THIS TIME. Relief rally or turn this back over for an economic awakening to reality of 1% GDP? Big money squeezed the fun out of it for now.

Much ado about nothing at the open.

jh0400 said:

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Much ado about nothing at the open.

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I would shade the downside if anything at this level.

Market opened flat??? Where's my buying opportunity? ?

wessimo said:

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Market opened flat??? Where's my buying opportunity? ?

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LOL.....indeed. Markets are cruel aren't they. Get futures trading access my good man!

Cancelled my market open buy in. Sigh.

Got an 80 point /ES trade in AH. Just ridiculous

Technically, the new high above yesterdays high set off a signal to buy long. The political environment makes me reluctant to do what I otherwise would do, that being say go into the markets big.

I am buying call options as a way to limit capital exposure yet position to either take profits OR convert to long positions should the signal prove to be an accurate bull signal.

claym711 said:

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Got an 80 point /ES trade in AH. Just ridiculous

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Yeah the overnights were the gift that kept on giving.

AAPL only down 1.67, im assuming most of the scare finally set in and calmed down

I bolstered my position in MO which I'm long in. Picked up a a few hundred shares at 62.79.

Here's the market quandry. AMZN has been THE bellweather stock as a leading indicator of macro trend. Look at the near perfection the large gaps have resulted in directional trend moves. Well, it has a recent gap down and that simply should not be ignored on both trading and macro fronts. If AMZN fills that gap and breaks the pattern then bull market leg here we come. But until/unless that happens I would be willing to bet a steak that we will see a trend downward over the next weeks to months.

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bmks270 said:

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I'm thinking of opening a straddle tomorrow early and then close it on Wednesday to take advantage of a big overnight movement. May shift through some stocks to find a good candidate or just place it on the SPY. I was looking at the options SPY straddles today. I think it's the safest play, can limit losses to one day of theta and volatility drop (which may be large). But a big move either direction will likely profit.

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bmks270 said:

Okay I'm long the 11 NOV 213 call and 212.5 put. Will see how it shakes out tomorrow morning after results are in...

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Reporting back. This trade got killed since the markets basically didn't move at all and volatility dropped. The price drop in the options was more than I was expecting based on the implied volatility change. Losing trade but I don't feel too bad considering it had a well defined max loss and possible big payoff. When everything was -4% last night this was looking like it would have worked out for a really nice profit.

oldarmy1 said:

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Here's the market quandry. AMZN has been THE bellweather stock as a leading indicator of macro trend. Look at the near perfection the large gaps have resulted in directional trend moves. Well, it has a recent gap down and that simply should not be ignored on both trading and macro fronts. If AMZN fills that gap and breaks the pattern then bull market leg here we come. But until/unless that happens I would be willing to bet a steak that we will see a trend downward over the next weeks to months.

This image is blocked because it is from an insecure source (http).

Click to open in a new tab.

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great find, yeah i used to trade it extensively until it became so YUGE but yeah it's become a leader

sweet more volatility, kind of figured that'd be the result of the election, hopefully not insane news driven vol swells like we've seen last few weeks, but good healthy sustained vol ...also love aspect of Trump in that he'll be the only person in that sphere that will actually try and challenge the FED, which news in itself will give us vol just like all those market temper tantrums when they threaten to take away free money and raise rates just a fraction...love it

thanks for the heads up, as always keep those deltas balanced boys, and if the signal comes in kick off that parking break

Those on the gun play are hurting a bit now. Smith & Wesson is down 12%.

TWTR broke out with a large lit candle

Market madness. We have a bullish signal on markets and then the AMZN bellweather indicator. All this wrapped around political manipulation.

I am sticking with call options because that signal gives me something technical to trade off of for now.

And boom! There we go....thank you technicals!

My $12 strike calls on BAC are screaming!!!

oldarmy1 said:

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And boom! There we go....thank you technicals!

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What happened?

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oldarmy1 said:

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And boom! There we go....thank you technicals!

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kayakag said:

What happened?

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The bull signal was confirmed. That's a trade signal not a macro trend signal.

The bull signal early in trading yesterday played out technically pure. Based on current futures we would open in record territory and unless a reversal were to occur today a return to a bull market move upward is coming. It is looking like AMZN is going to break the gap trend as long as the markets do not reverse off a strong open. SHOULD THAT AMZN gap get filled then, just as it was creating caution, it would complete a full on bull market signal. Entry into the markets would be less critical than going ahead and putting your capital back to work. Remember that we've had 2 years of sideways movement and this would be a breakout of that pattern, something not to be ignored.

This election has everyone and everything turned on its ears. The fact that we have a fully Republican lead government is historical in its own right, considering the political climate. The markets are clearly showing that they are betting own Trump, and who wouldn't given the impossible?

As the world and investors digest what just happened there are some keys to fundamentals based on a Trump lead country.

1) Has anyone mentioned the incoming President is a construction guy, who has listed building infrastructure as one of his prime tenants? Well you can post your best funds available in your 401k's that are heavy in U.S. companies that serve this area. This would be my 100% best and heaviest placement of your long-term investment monies. Individual stocks like Caterpillar are no-brainers and part of my largest call options yesterday. Take a look at the volume in that one stock yesterday to get an idea of big money's thinking/agreement. Another thing about CAT is the $100 mark it has not broken. Like a magnet it will be drawn to that and then flash above it (something for the trading thread short term). Notice also that it just broke over it's previous resistance highs. DE is another stock in the magic 90's. Deere will run like one. CSX another. EDIT TO ADD: Beyond the other sectors listed the other obvious I forgot to list would be those supporting defense, with military build up.

2) Capital Gains and Corporate Taxes: Another promise Trump made was to reduce the capital gains and corporate tax. WOOHOO! That sounded good but now it sounds great, because he has a full government control to make it a reality. Trickle down economics is going to be a flood once this is passed. Businesses sitting on billions will unleash the hounds.

3) $2.5 trillion. TWO POINT FIVE TRILLION could be a magic number. Trump's stated negotiation with U.S. companies with overseas accounts parked with this amount, to avoid U.S. taxes will be fascinating to watch. IF he manages to pull off a repatriation of those dollars then he'd go down as the most successful fiscal policy President in history IMO. His idea of inner city redevelopment attached to tax incentives and a reduced tax on any of these dollars coming back into the country would fuel topic #1 above even further.

There is a current reality in economic growth and Trump isn't even in office yet so the enthusiasm in all of the above is taking the markets higher. Those huge "ship" fund managers take weeks to get positioned, so dip buying opportunities as we continue to have a mix of bad data and anticipatory/forward looking optimism will allow for entry.

If you believe that a CEO President, hellbent on rebuilding the country's infrastrure (CAUSE), will put people back to work (EFFECT) then increase/take positions in the sectors listed yesterday and today. Then look for entry opportunities certainly to come. The FED is certain to raise interest rates at their next meeting. This should provide another entry opportunity.

My take? BET ON TRUMP

oldarmy1 said:

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Trickle down economics is going to be a flood once this is passed. Businesses sitting on billions will unleash the hounds.

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I'm FAR from an expert but it has been true for a long time that lots of companies are sitting on scads of cash waiting for removal of uncertainty. We'll see how it plays out and I'll be extremely interested in watching it play out and the input provided on this thread.

As a net lender, a return to just 5-6% one year returns on CD's, and 7-8% 5/10 yr returns would make me happy

Futures cut in half from overnight highs. We have come back under all time high territory. For traders that means we have to eye this resistance mark until/unless broken.

How do big bank stocks typically react to rising interest rates? Do they gain based on the anticipated higher revenue, or do they retract fearing reduced public lending as rates climb? Thanks.

Spaceship said:

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How do big bank stocks typically react to rising interest rates? Do they gain based on the anticipated higher revenue, or do they retract fearing reduced public lending as rates climb? Thanks.

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UP

Posting PBI as a dog trade hit 52 week low recently and looks to have found major support. Trying to breakout as I type and I'm in it as a trade looking for short term move to $16 and then deciding longer term strategy.