ECB tomorrow. Should get some interesting equity and bond action!
Stock Markets
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Last: 25 min ago by BrokeAssAggie
quote:Early impact of what was indicated here. Traders selling or shorting early sending stocks lower. Watch where we are at 30 minutes into trading to get first half day reading. Bulls have managed to push back up over the span of this bull leg, so most will look for continuation of that pattern with being slightly below the support resistance channel. But if the bulls don't show up, or worse, are taking profits off the table we'll end up retesting the lower support.
Sideways action most recent bounce has paused at the midway level. The resistance selling intensified each time the midway level was breached. If we can't rise above yesterdays close today then most traders will position a retest of the lower levels.
Doing so without first approaching the upper channel range would be noteworthy. If VOLUME selling comes into the mix and we lose the lower support then we can look at readings.
Something we want to watch is how the markets move after each "top". We see the left side of the chart top after the big breakout run occurred. After consolidation we ran back up and set a new top, although barely, and on terrible volume. It's too early to tell if this most recent move off the bottom back upwards stalled or is a top. If it becomes a top, confirmed by revisiting the lower support then that becomes noteworthy because it is a lower top than the left side chart top. A breakdown of support would be significant and likely see a quick retreat to the next major support levels, even potentially flashing below 18k.
Volume would be required for any of those scenarios. I am not making predictions; simply showing key technical indicators anyone with a basic chart pull up might watch and pay attention to on a macro level.
Volume would be required for any of those scenarios. I am not making predictions; simply showing key technical indicators anyone with a basic chart pull up might watch and pay attention to on a macro level.
RSI has been showing a bearish sentiment with the last sets of highs and lows back to July 20th.
CIE risk/reward trade trying to breakout right now
CHK breakout signal confirmed on volume...woosh!
CHK breakout signal confirmed on volume...woosh!
Intraday look. See the gap down open. Then notice the efficiency of the markets fill the gap perfectly. Low volume tells you big money is FIRMLY in control of the direction. Then the fake out move higher, just as we've spoken about, and the intraday down trend. Was on a phone call but note (if you look at a real time chart) the final resistance that was in question has now broken to the upside so expect a move higher IF volume comes in.
GILD topped $79...if you still had 25% of your options thats when to close them!
Bright red futures pointing towards support retest. I laid out the scenarios, so hopefully people have taken some profits off the table, placed some protective hedges and/or pared down overall holdings.
If we breakdown on support retest then the 18k mark will become the focus. If volume intensifies to the sell side then we'll need to view that within the entire model, to determine if it is the top signal or a dip buying opportunity.
I would avoid placing any new or sideline funds into equities for now.
If we breakdown on support retest then the 18k mark will become the focus. If volume intensifies to the sell side then we'll need to view that within the entire model, to determine if it is the top signal or a dip buying opportunity.
I would avoid placing any new or sideline funds into equities for now.
quote:With futures sinking further the retest of support is on. Key marks for everyone 18270 DOW/2150 SPX
Something we want to watch is how the markets move after each "top". We see the left side of the chart top after the big breakout run occurred. After consolidation we ran back up and set a new top, although barely, and on terrible volume. It's too early to tell if this most recent move off the bottom back upwards stalled or is a top. If it becomes a top, confirmed by revisiting the lower support then that becomes noteworthy because it is a lower top than the left side chart top. A breakdown of support would be significant and likely see a quick retreat to the next major support levels, even potentially flashing below 18k.
Volume would be required for any of those scenarios. I am not making predictions; simply showing key technical indicators anyone with a basic chart pull up might watch and pay attention to on a macro level.
DOW volume over 250B a key marker on any breakdown.
DOW futures sank from initial morning post down 55 to now down 107. Ah, the rug pulling moves of the powerful. But no one on here is caught off guard or surprised, right?!
We are very close to DOW support so many traders are buying here looking for support to hold and "rubberband" back into at least mid-channel levels. THAT IS NOT A RECcOMENDATION. If anyone is trading with buys down 100+ you better have lightning fast execution and a clear strategy.
We are very close to DOW support so many traders are buying here looking for support to hold and "rubberband" back into at least mid-channel levels. THAT IS NOT A RECcOMENDATION. If anyone is trading with buys down 100+ you better have lightning fast execution and a clear strategy.
On a day that starts like this, do you consider initiating new hedge positions still or would that time have already passed?
quote:
On a day that starts like this, do you consider initiating new hedge positions still or would that time have already passed?
Watch first 30 minute and hour mark. Of well up in your positions then hedge. I am traveling and of course unable to watch clisely today.
Thise numbers accurate mentioned? 18270 DOW key and we hit 18271. Lol
2150 being tested now
We are below 18270 now, spell it out for us idiots. Does this indicate a change in macro environment?
Keep going so I can hit my short!
I took your advice oldarmy and took money off the table prior to this. Thank you!
Any hint of an interest rise, even just 0.25% kills a market relying primarily on very cheap money and hoping for a return to QE.
The Fed has painted themselves into a very tight corner and the policy makers in Washington are too stupid and greedy to let them out of it and pass pro growth legislation.
The Fed can't raise interest rates without tanking the market and Hillary's chances!
Any hint of an interest rise, even just 0.25% kills a market relying primarily on very cheap money and hoping for a return to QE.
The Fed has painted themselves into a very tight corner and the policy makers in Washington are too stupid and greedy to let them out of it and pass pro growth legislation.
The Fed can't raise interest rates without tanking the market and Hillary's chances!
quote:
We are below 18270 now, spell it out for us idiots. Does this indicate a change in macro environment?
In a meeting. What is total volume on DOW right now?
44.45MM
WTF is going on? I've lost $15 today!
quote:
44.45MM
Amazing. Orderly exit. When saying we would see around 18k fast this is what it means. If you are a trader with level 2 then watch for large lot orders of 10k shares+ in mass to spot big money covering shorts and potentially setting a bottom. I'd go with options over shares to have a set loss max.
I will have to look at everything this weekend but we end the day with low volume and see a 300 plus point decline the pure technical of key support failing takes center stage.
Cant post picture from work, but SPY trades over 500k share lot sizes have been all buys except two today. Dont have Lv 2 access so don't know who it was, but looks like large lots are primarily moving into SPY.
2x 3 month avg vol as well
2x 3 month avg vol as well
Will there be a bounce back? I didnt' listen and held on to my stuff and bought more stuff with extra cash laying around.
quote:
Will there be a bounce back? I didnt' listen and held on to my stuff and bought more stuff with extra cash laying around.
Based on a regular volume like today the initial read would be a dip buy opportunity. Now what that means for your post is no more into the market and wait to see some more concrete data. And it's not like we are suddenly at DOW 16k. We're a few hundred points from all time highs, so no worries.
ALERT..CLOSING VIX hedge +4 28
Not taking ANY positions due to lack of volume signature. Will look to Monday before any trade action. That's all I've got for now.
Congrats PFO!
Congrats PFO!
I will say one other thing. Anyone fully invested would be wise to exit at minimum 35% holdings or if you have hedge knowledge get them in place before the close, even down 352
I sold my stocks with the least drops and put that cash into the stocks with the most drops today.
Did I do it right?
Did I do it right?
Acceleration to the downside into the bell. From down 352 to down 392. I barely got all my screens up in time to watch the close and large sell lots flooded the market. Wouldn't be surprised to see final settle 400+ down.
quote:
I sold my stocks with the least drops and put that cash into the stocks with the most drops today.
Did I do it right?
Well here's the thing about that Brian. Unless we find a bottom under 18k those other stocks will be joining yours...trust me on that.
But yours will be the best bounce gainers first bounce day, so look at the bright side?
Let me preface this comment by saying I hope many took profits over the last few days of caution, and that those who did not aren't hit too bad but THIS IS FREAKING AWESOME!
This is what you love about trading and the markets. Volitilaty = opportunity. The snooze fest is ending with a big wake up call.
And when I said if we lose that key support we would see 18k fast how did that work for ya???
This is what you love about trading and the markets. Volitilaty = opportunity. The snooze fest is ending with a big wake up call.
And when I said if we lose that key support we would see 18k fast how did that work for ya???
So with the day now over, are you already looking at re-entry points for next week?
quote:
So with the day now over, are you already looking at re-entry points for next week?
I'll look at all the data, including some coming Sunday, and assess the opportunity. A lot of people are going to be looking at the Fed speech Monday taking a different tone than Rosengren, thus calming the fears and sending the markets back upward. If anything gets signaled to that effect over the weekend the futures would be green. Otherwise expect flat to negative into open and at some point a bottom hits upward into the talk.
I'd be extremely cautious counting on a hawkish Fed comment to signal a return to business as usual in the markets. Looking at the all-trades volume we had over 4 billion shares trade today which was super high.
If big money unloaded shares then they will drive the markets lower. The cruelest move is the post-news selloff just as the amateur traders think its smooth selling.
I did not see large buying into the final hour. In fact it was sell side. Therefore regardless of up at open or up on Yellen comments I can see the markets rolling over. That could change by seeing large lot buying, so it's ultimately a real time decision.
S&P 2222 is next key. Lose that and we drive downward again. Let me remind everyone that markets will "flash" below key marks. When they include intense volume a "V" bottom quickly brings the markets back above that key mark. When that happens you buy. The higher the volume the bigger I'll move in.
More to relay as able. Typed this on my cell phone, so ignore typos.
Randy, you are a good man for sharing your knowledge with everyone. Thanks!
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