Lot of movement within the sideways range today. Nothings changed on readings so sticking with current strategy/holdings.

Market voluime 42 million again at this time. So we get another 30M in last 1.5 hours of trading again. See how 40% of daily market volume moves in the final hour.

Well, today we had the awaited Yellen speech, a sharp move up, 190-pt loss down.....and we ended just about back where we started.

Yellen talking about raising interest rates and resorting to more unconventional means to improve the economy like the very stuff that Abe is failing so miserably with in Japan. All the while GDP is revised down to 1.1% and business investment and inventories shrink 10%.....you know, like American businesses are expecting another recession. Scary times.

CMA moved up above resistance today. Slightly lower than average volume. Now the question is whether this is a move up or a top over before a decline?

It's been bouncing off of resistance since August 8th at around 46. We moved solidly through that today. The next major resistance looks like $47-$47.50 from Nov-Dec 2015 and June 2016.

I would say the call on this stock moving higher will be proved incorrect if it trades back below $46 in the range of the triangle.

Here are my thoughts:

1. I think CMA will move higher after the triangle breakout above $46.
2. Volume doesn't support the move yet and OA1 pointed out that the big volume day on Aug 19 had the large trade lots skewed to the sell side.
3. Closing above $47.50 with strong volume supports my hypothesis.
4. Closing back down around the 20 DMA of $45.60 proves my hypothesis incorrect (and possibly points to this initial move as a top over prior to another downward move).

How would you trade with these assumptions? More importantly, how would you change these assumptions?

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Well, today we had the awaited Yellen speech, a sharp move up, 190-pt loss down.....and we ended just about back where we started.

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True - but the dynamics of the day give me plenty of data to pour over. Who was buying, who was selling. Where the volumes flowed in, etc. More importantly the capitulation swings were wild signaling a move is coming. The natives are getting restless.

And Gator - the answer is "with options" on CMA. Keep risk low with smaller capital exposure on those trades for now. I do like TCK and stuck with Calls entered. A lot of institutional buying.

There has been virtually no volume distribution around 2140-2160 on SPX, and we have lots of open gaps heading that way. The bottom of this 1 month+ range has continually been bought, but we are starting to get some larger moves and The Fed didn't rally us today like the minutes did from the Aug 2-4 dip. We have two primary POCs in this range that have been well distributed, and we have rallied from the lower range at least once. Today we had good volume and some extreme TICKs down (-1400), but we ran out of sellers at the bottom of range.

I'm interested to see what oldarmy thinks about the direction moving from this consolidation range.

I was going to let CMA > $47.00 be my buy trigger and it happened pretty much right at opening.
10 Sep16 47 Calls @ 1.01 right now I'm working with a stop loss trigger to sell if CMA <= $45.80.

Back to the low volume grind. No sellers.

TCK $17.17 Taking 50% of options off into this buying.

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TCK $17.17 Taking 50% of options off into this buying.

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thanks. keeping the good info going and i'll blindly follow. haha

GILD dropping still. Might be the down day low below recent support prior to move higher but with volume non-existent hard to pull the trigger. $80 calls for this Friday at 20 cents tempts me.

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Back to the low volume grind. No sellers.

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zzzzzZZZZZZZZZ

Biotech has become persona non grata in the markets lately. You can thank MYL and Hillary for that.

CIE making a move back upward toward resistance. Didn't quite fill the gap spoken about but said it didn't need to fully fill the gap. I have a decent position and will add if we break $1.50 on volume, of which I would become part.

CIE needs to sell Angola or get $50+ oil to see a significant move IMO. I know you trade on technicals only but this company is in trouble and hemorrhaging cash.

Also these moves have been on very low volume and I know you like to see big volume when you trade. I'm surprised you jumped in.

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Also these moves have been on very low volume and I know you like to see big volume when you trade. I'm surprised you jumped in.

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You said something....earlier

I'm guessing that means you see oil going higher soon?

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I'm guessing that means you see oil going higher soon?

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I love having oilmen on here, cause you have great insight into the industry.

BTW, what do you see 6 months out for oil?

My prediction is as worthless as anyone's on here but I'd say we stay between 45-50 for a while. As you know $50 is an important psychological barrier. I think we'll need a big increase in drawdowns before we get past it.

We generally need $55 and steady for things to really pick up. We are starting to slowing increase cap spending, but stable $55 is a pretty important milestone.

Lack of offshore investment from late 2014 - now will start to show results in late 2017 - 2018 IMO. Shale activity will struggle to keep up and ramp up to replace those missing barrels. Bakken and Eagle Ford are already on decline, with Permian holding flat. Global production has already started to drop, with Iranian crude making up a lot of the difference for now.

As it continues to decline, prices will rebound eventually. The key question to me is how fast can the US ramp up. Some think it will be very quick, others (myself included) think it will be at least 6-9 months due to the labor drain that has occurred.

Shale can ramp up faster with fracking with good scheduling and project management. Everything is going to be slow to turn around. Most of the companies have dropped their rigs and other crews. Companies will have to build location & may need facilities upgrades to go with new flow lines. So there will be a slow period. Some shale properties have higher production rates with higher decline rates, so the tighter you can schedule activity..:the faster those productions curves can climb.

GILD 48 strike calls purchased at $0.48 cents sold at $0.88 cents.....biotech sector might suck but spotting a bounce trade opportunity for 80%+ gain is always in vogue.

TWTR with a nice little pop this morning on decent volume.

I know this thread is primarily focused on individual stock trades and "micro" trends. I have really appreciated the technical analysis and learned a lot.

I am curious on what the advice/thoughts are to a more passive investor, who is sitting at about 10% cash and growing, that has been kept out of the market due to feeling the market is over sold. I continue to dollar cost average into funds every month at about 1% - 2% of my portfolio value.

Should I stay cash heavy until the macro market changes? Should I continue to DCA but increase the amount?

Joseph - What options strike price and expiration did you sell against your SN shares? What are they showing on price right now?

Is technical analysis considered behavioral finance? I had my first class in behavioral finance yesterday and ironically enough she put a 5 year Twitter chart on the PowerPoint and even made a point to bring up the huge volume spikes.

Elliott Wave analysis is based on RN Elliott's "scientific wave theory of human existence." Momentum indicators can track investor sentiment. Support and resistance levels are really just psychological points that the market tries to move through.

I would say that in a way a good portion of technical analysis could be considered behavioral finance.

What do you think about the huge volume and possible bottom in FOX today?



16MM volume today vs avg volume of 2.6MM. No big news today and we're a month out from earnings. Last quarter they had a 25% earnings surprise.

Big shipping company going bankrupt. Hanjin. Shipping prices going up 50%. This is the busy shipping time of the year with companies stocking up for Christmas. Time to play the shippers?

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Joseph - What options strike price and expiration did you sell against your SN shares? What are they showing on price right now?

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$8.00 expiring Sept 16th. I'll check on the new going rate when I get to a laptop.

Bought them for $0.75, they are now going for $0.90 for the same $8.00 strike price.