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We WILL go lower before we see anything close to new highs in the macro markets.
Oldarmy1, what do you use to identify macro trends in the market (both bull and bear)? For some of us who aren't trading and are just identifying when a market turns for 401(k) / ira purposes, what indicators do you use? I'm just charting the S&P against a 300 day EMA and when it breaks below like it did in August, I'll move to the sidelines or short the market (SH or SDS) for the next 12-18 mos. or until it goes back above the EMA or establishes a new high. I also look at the MACD a little.
Are there other things you look for? I read where you mentioned the S&P topped 2-3 times without breaking through the 2120 level roughly. Are there any other macro indicators that help you identify bull or bear markets starting or coming to an end?
I have 57 variables involved. Each one weighted based on market levels. Technicals obviously are weighted above most. Institutional activity is #1. A market maker algorhythm to identify largest activity, Lot volumes as described earlier, international markets, banking/financials data, so much more.
Buy/Hold/Sale ratings across the top 200 analysts, etc. A lot of this obviously changes periodically and frequent, sometimes daily, refresh occurs.
When all of the variables I study and have formulated come in line a pure signal occurs. My last apprentice had the idea of writing a book and he would take that on. He will begin posting here once school is out. He has become a strangle option expert.
I'm reluctant to fully pull back the Kimono because any mass application of success generally falls prey to further manipulation by the institutions.
