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21,522,250 Views | 223304 Replies | Last: 4 hrs ago by ProgN
leoj
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TOS and SA both show 3/16 but I have no idea how that makes sense, they last announced on 10/28
oldarmy1
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Aggie_2463 said:

oldarmy1 said:

The indecision in the markets right now are palpable. Seen it too many times to ignore. We have two macro tables set. 1) It is not unrealistic to see the Impeachment case be tossed out after the Dems opening arguments are concluded. Markets were set to explode on that probability. 2) The virus showing up in the U.S. has set the early selling action. Any meaningful news of spreading over the weekend and it's uncertain how the markets would handle the two scenarios.

I mentioned the markets were trying to stabilize on the post above. That would be an intraday pivot if it holds to push above 3222. See JD dropped to $39.87 and now $40.15 as Exhibit A confirming what I was seeing. That could only be a quick day trade and "h" continuation comes in.
So you're saying I'd wait until monday before re-entry on NIO or SDC for some shares?
Absolutely
oldarmy1
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If you bought SPY Puts you are up nicely.
oldarmy1
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SPY Puts are up 100% for taking 50% and get your capital back.,....a free hedge!
HoustonAg2014
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leoj said:

Those numbers seem pretty far away unless they just have a ridiculous beat or miss. 50-100 point day sure. It gapped down like 85 points last quarter on the miss and then rallied about 65 points during the day.

Just depends on the details, I have learned to just not even try to guess on a huge company like AMZN, so much going on, places their cash could be going, expenses, market share gain, surprise customer volume upside. Who knows.
Yeah I guess I was just figuring an 8-10% move in either direction. That may be too much but I feel like I read they average a move of 6.5% either direction after earnings.
leoj
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No, you're right, 6.5% is pretty likely. Have an ugly miss with the market where it is, could sell-off. Blow it out of the water, near that 1900 number and go past it, it could really run.

I just wouldn't be on either way but long term obviously it's a top 5 stock to own. Just look at that last dip to 1600, anyone who went long there is going to be gifting that stock to their kids in their will.
leoj
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OA, if SPY goes under this 329.40 and confirms, we could be looking at a gap fill to 328.10? Just wanting to confirm if I'm seeing this correctly.

Edit: there we go, big volume on the 5m. I doubled up on the SPY 1/27 327 puts. Thanks for the call-out on that OA, a lone bright spot today.



Also in case anyone missed it, there is an update on the Palk family gofundme page. They are having to try and find a prosthetic hand for her that insurance will not cover.
E
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leoj said:

Also in case anyone missed it, there is an update on the Palk family gofundme page. They are having to try and find a prosthetic hand for her that insurance will not cover.
I saw that as well. Lets get some big wins this next week so we can help them get that hand!
spud1910
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leoj said:

OA, if SPY goes under this 329.40 and confirms, we could be looking at a gap fill to 328.10? Just wanting to confirm if I'm seeing this correctly.

Edit: there we go, big volume on the 5m. I doubled up on the SPY 1/27 327 puts. Thanks for the call-out on that OA, a lone bright spot today.



Also in case anyone missed it, there is an update on the Palk family gofundme page. They are having to try and find a prosthetic hand for her that insurance will not cover.

I saw that as well. Their faith is an inspiration.
Shiner Bock
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I'm relooking at the SLV 2/14 $18c as a hedge. these things are dirt cheap @ .06. a small run in SLV and this could pay bigly
oldarmy1
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The flash down was perfect as we all know....BIG ROUND NUMBERS create the likely flash and it happened. You were able to sell only 30% and be net free.

I gave a play by play of the likely scenario playing out and it happened exactly as described.

Trolley Problems
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Doubled up and holding half net free. Been a good 24 hrs!
tamu2009
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And I was in a meeting and missed it. Damn it.
IrishTxAggie
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Even with the crappy market day, BYND option premium holding up really well
BenRev09
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Would you apply the big round numbers theory to DIS at 140? Thinking of using this opportunity to jump on 2/14 140C
oldarmy1
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BenRev09 said:

Would you apply the big round numbers theory to DIS at 140? Thinking of using this opportunity to jump on 2/14 140C
I would. I've been looking for a flash on $140 with DIS
AgShaun00
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what is the story on wood? Any chance it will turn around
Harkrider 93
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AgShaun00 said:

what is the story on wood? Any chance it will turn around
depends on the woman
Trolley Problems
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RE: SPY puts. Is the thought to hold the remainder net free through the weekend to see what coronavirus news comes out, expecting a red day on monday? Or just take the quick buck now and exit entirely?
Talon2DSO
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Trolley Problems said:

RE: SPY puts. Is the thought to hold the remainder net free through the weekend to see what coronavirus news comes out, expecting a red day on monday? Or just take the quick buck now and exit entirely?


Its like you have ESPN. I had the same question
khkman22
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IrishTxAggie said:

Even with the crappy market day, BYND option premium holding up really well
Do you have any further insight on the earnings date? I can't imagine there would have been the volume on those calls yesterday if they didn't think Beyond was going to report next week.
ProgN
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TDA shows BYND earnings on 3/16.
AgShaun00
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Harkrider 93 said:

AgShaun00 said:

what is the story on wood? Any chance it will turn around
depends on the woman
last few days the woman been fat and ugly and wood been limping. Question is when da hotties coming?
gig em 02
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Talon2DSO said:

Trolley Problems said:

RE: SPY puts. Is the thought to hold the remainder net free through the weekend to see what coronavirus news comes out, expecting a red day on monday? Or just take the quick buck now and exit entirely?


Its like you have ESPN. I had the same question


Is it a hedge or a trade?
oldarmy1
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Trolley Problems said:

RE: SPY puts. Is the thought to hold the remainder net free through the weekend to see what coronavirus news comes out, expecting a red day on monday? Or just take the quick buck now and exit entirely?
Yes!
oldarmy1
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gig em 02 said:

Talon2DSO said:

Trolley Problems said:

RE: SPY puts. Is the thought to hold the remainder net free through the weekend to see what coronavirus news comes out, expecting a red day on monday? Or just take the quick buck now and exit entirely?


Its like you have ESPN. I had the same question


Is it a hedge or a trade?
Well it was both when initially posted. Now its a trade more than a hedge
claym711
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Once today's open passed -20 points it became extremely unlikely to close above there, though small sample size on this.
Trolley Problems
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oldarmy1 said:

Trolley Problems said:

RE: SPY puts. Is the thought to hold the remainder net free through the weekend to see what coronavirus news comes out, expecting a red day on monday? Or just take the quick buck now and exit entirely?
Yes!

Ha, so both are correct?
IrishTxAggie
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khkman22 said:

IrishTxAggie said:

Even with the crappy market day, BYND option premium holding up really well
Do you have any further insight on the earnings date? I can't imagine there would have been the volume on those calls yesterday if they didn't think Beyond was going to report next week.
No idea. Everyone is guessing until BYND actually announces a date.
oldarmy1
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Trolley Problems said:

oldarmy1 said:

Trolley Problems said:

RE: SPY puts. Is the thought to hold the remainder net free through the weekend to see what coronavirus news comes out, expecting a red day on monday? Or just take the quick buck now and exit entirely?
Yes!

Ha, so both are correct?
Absolutely....but when a 60 cent/option hedge becomes a $2.40 grand slam that is a trade in my book.
Trolley Problems
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oldarmy1 said:

Trolley Problems said:

oldarmy1 said:

Trolley Problems said:

RE: SPY puts. Is the thought to hold the remainder net free through the weekend to see what coronavirus news comes out, expecting a red day on monday? Or just take the quick buck now and exit entirely?
Yes!

Ha, so both are correct?
Absolutely....but when a 60 cent/option hedge becomes a $2.40 grand slam that is a trade in my book.

Make hay while the sun shines.
oldarmy1
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FYI I just had TLRA Feb $10 calls fill at $0.50 to someone with hidden bid. If have extra shares or simply not wanting uncertainty there might still be more.
oldarmy1
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I wouldn't let go of the SPY puts. However, should a bounce occur you can bet 3300 would be in play so instead of selling the Puts I would buy the $330 calls for 50 cents or under against your 60 cent entries that are now at $3.01.

Be acutely aware of the long red candles, regardless of empatis, especially when they are near upper channel.

oldarmy1
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Nailed it on the SPY calls too. Sheesh this is fun
leoj
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Seriously thank you. I double down as well on that pullback, so this has made up for the earlier bleeding today.
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