Best advice on here is "don't fight the fed". The world central banks can print trillions of dollars to kill the bears (temporarily) and at some point they will. If you're shorting, use stop losses. I don't see a scenario where the feds let this drop below 14,000 before they unleash QE again.

I don't fully understand all of this, but the last time everyone was scared of those issues, gold went up but the miners dropped.

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Fed and central banks around the world are out of bullets. Look at the market reaction in Japan and Europe to negative interest rates. Markets are loosing confidence with the Fed rapidly. The Fed raised rates to 0.5% and our markets crashed. Does that inspire confidence. Maybe they can produce a temporary bounce, but it will be nothing like the bounces produced during prior QEs in my opinion as the markets have wised up to their games.

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Exactly! QE doesn't actually creat jobs and history shows it requires ever increasing amounts of money to be printed to even achieve some effect, albeit a decreasing effect.

It looks like now actual policy changes out of Washington DC will be required to stimulate the economy and create actual jobs. Not any chance of that happening before Jan 20, 2017!

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I don't fully understand all of this, but the last time everyone was scared of those issues, gold went up but the miners dropped.

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You are so right about that!

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Part of me thinks this was a setup for huge dump tomorrow

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Face ripping rally that gets sold off before the long weekend.

1730 is strong support in the market. I think that's where we're going. I said I'd buy heavy because I still have a long bias in the market. This isn't 2008 and the world isn't coming to an end.

NIKKEI futures down over 450. Welcome back from your day off!

Make that -550

-640 Oh my
-680 Broke under 15k.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-11/global-bear-market-to-intensify-in-asia-as-investors-hunt-havens

It's been down for so many days in a row. A huge dump tomorrow would really be something.

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It's been down for so many days in a row. A huge dump tomorrow would really be something.

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Yeah, we went from 16k to 15k pronto. Big round numbers cause psychological support so lets see how the 15k mark trades tonight.

-850 or 5.4%

Europe too. I'm surprised that the selling is this intense. And, the US has some catching up to do. (Unless you believe our economy is so much better)

Appreciation of the dollar is what's turning the market over. PEs are in line.

I think they are saying the Schiller PE ratio is high. At least that is what I think they mean because the current rate is not high, especially when compared to interest rates.

The Schiller PE has little value as a leading indicator. It's more of a "well that's interesting" stat.

I thought that it had a pretty accurate telling of what type of returns to expect over the next 10 yrs. Unless you mean leading indicator as the next 0-12 mos. If you are saying that then I am not sure any PE ratio is a good leading indicator.

The Schiller compares markets comprising of Apple, Amazon, etc. to US steal, General Motors, etc.

For those of you saying the markets are likely to continue moving down, where do you have assets in things like Roth's? Convert to Money Market? Sell stocks and leave as cash in the account? Just curious. Oldarmy, did you actually sell your entire position in the market during the summer, or something else?

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For those of you saying the markets are likely to continue moving down, where do you have assets in things like Roth's? Convert to Money Market? Sell stocks and leave as cash in the account? Just curious. Oldarmy, did you actually sell your entire position in the market during the summer, or something else?

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Any form of retirement directed account went into cash equivalents in the summer. Trading accounts went short or in Puts at the same time as exiting all holdings. I closed 100% of the shorts and Puts at the retest (actually 100-200 points above major support).

In years past I would swing trade my 401k but don't do so since 2005, since trading accounts valuations accumulated. I DO continue to macro trade Roth IRA's as part of my trading pattern due to tax deferment and easier trading rules/options.

BTW - As a good Ag, who has known and followed my macro calls for some time reminded others, bear markets have many upside moves lasting up to several months. I posted the monthly DOW chart as example of this "Action".

This new article captures that understanding well:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-bear-market-stocks-will-likely-be-higher-in-six-months-2016-02-12?siteid=yhoof2

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You want trades here is mine today, long emini at 1838, long crude mini 27.85

Edit for 1838 instead of 1938

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I appreciate you sharing this info.

Nice bump today.

A real trade. I'm selling these options because of high volatility.

3 weeks ago sold SBUX 58 PUT (cash secured) for .90 with 2 weeks to expiration.

.90/58 =1.55% possible return over 2 weeks. Was up about $80 when SBUX hit 60, then markets fell.

Took the stock at $58 on Monday (-.90 = 57.10 break even) while stock was trading below 55, so a big loss there but I decided to hold the stock and sell a covered call option.

Sold 56 CALL that expires next week for .79...

You can look at these as separate trades or one rolling position which is how I am looking at.

Premiums: .90 + .79 = 1.69
Stock: buy 58 - sell (if call itm next week) 56 = -2.00

So, if my call expires next Friday with SBUX above 56 my loss in the 4 weeks will be 1.69 - 2.00 = .31.

.31/58 = 0.53% loss if SBUX closes above 56 next Friday.

Add .01 to loss for every .01 SBUX is below 56 at expiration, at which point I'll likely sell another 2-5 week call option. I may just buy back the call option if SBUX is above 56 to avoid excise commission, I haven't decided yet.

A look at my commissions, 1.5 per option contract, 19.99 if exercised.

2 options = 3.00
2 exercise if itm Friday = $40.

Assume my short call is itm at expiration:
Loss on 1 contract would be
.31 + .03 + .40 = .74 or $74
.74/58 = 1.27%

Time 4 weeks.

Compare this loss with trading 100 shares of the stock at 58 and 56 with a $2 loss per share and $7 comission

2.14/58 = 3.68% loss.

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Part of me thinks this was a setup for huge dump tomorrow

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Face ripping rally that gets sold off before the long weekend.

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I was sort of right on the first part, wrong on the second. Had I the balls I had a few years ago, I'd be celebrating a 5 digit profit day trade. As it stands, I'm glad my conservative mix of low vol stock funds and bonds was positive on the day.

The upcoming political war over replacing Scalia is going to spook markets in my opinion.

That and if it becomes clear Trump or sanders are the nominees