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The upcoming political war over replacing Scalia is going to spook markets in my opinion.

That and if it becomes clear Trump or sanders are the nominees

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No way the senate confirms an Obama nominee to replace Scalia. McConnel said as much when he said the next president will make the appointment.

I fully understand why Sanders would be disastrous for stocks but how would Trump be bad for US business and stocks?

The markets don't like surprises. Trumps threat of tariffs on our trading partners and I think the general view that he's unstable would hurt the market.

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The upcoming political war over replacing Scalia is going to spook markets in my opinion.

That and if it becomes clear Trump or sanders are the nominees

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Futures should be interesting. Came here to post what you already posted. Have until Tuesday for the impact to be digested.

Got called out today. Looking for re-entry opportunity.

Overseas markets rocking with NIKKEI leading the way with nearly 1000 point advance.

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A real trade. I'm selling these options because of high volatility.

3 weeks ago sold SBUX 58 PUT (cash secured) for .90 with 2 weeks to expiration.

.90/58 =1.55% possible return over 2 weeks. Was up about $80 when SBUX hit 60, then markets fell.

Took the stock at $58 on Monday (-.90 = 57.10 break even) while stock was trading below 55, so a big loss there but I decided to hold the stock and sell a covered call option.

Sold 56 CALL that expires next week for .79...

You can look at these as separate trades or one rolling position which is how I am looking at.

Premiums: .90 + .79 = 1.69
Stock: buy 58 - sell (if call itm next week) 56 = -2.00

So, if my call expires next Friday with SBUX above 56 my loss in the 4 weeks will be 1.69 - 2.00 = .31.

.31/58 = 0.53% loss if SBUX closes above 56 next Friday.

Add .01 to loss for every .01 SBUX is below 56 at expiration, at which point I'll likely sell another 2-5 week call option. I may just buy back the call option if SBUX is above 56 to avoid excise commission, I haven't decided yet.

A look at my commissions, 1.5 per option contract, 19.99 if exercised.

2 options = 3.00
2 exercise if itm Friday = $40.

Assume my short call is itm at expiration:
Loss on 1 contract would be
.31 + .03 + .40 = .74 or $74
.74/58 = 1.27%

Time 4 weeks.

Compare this loss with trading 100 shares of the stock at 58 and 56 with a $2 loss per share and $7 comission

2.14/58 = 3.68% loss.

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I do trades like this all of the time. Usually high probability of profit, but low level of profit. But I figure $100 a week on a $25k account, even though it doesn't sound like much, is still a 20% return for the year.

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The upcoming political war over replacing Scalia is going to spook markets in my opinion.

That and if it becomes clear Trump or sanders are the nominees

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No chance Sanders is the D nominee.

Japan is bouncing huge.

That's somewhat alarming. Their government could manipulate prices at their discretion.

Bill Ackman has overall concerns about ETFs having controlling interest in shareholder votes. The buyer of ETFs actually buy "share creation units", which are proxies of the actual shares.

Futures are up again. Happy days are here again.

Bought some weekly puts, 186 strike. Beer money. I'll probably sell some puts against them at the close.

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Bought some weekly puts, 186 strike. Beer money. I'll probably sell some puts against them at the close.

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Out for 12.5% gain. Keystone light this week.

188 puts...maybe I can have Shiner instead of Keystone.

Looks like no beer this weekend.

SPY is up $11 from the low in that time. Crazy.

I need about $192 to break even on my puts. But doesn't look like it'll happen this time.

Are we thinking this is a short term bounce with the longer term trend still going down?

Depends on fundamentals, as technicals always do. A fundamental shoe drops and the past X# days of technicals aren't applicable any longer.

You could argue it's just a technical bounce. We got to 1820s again but never closed at that level. And each time we've been there we've bounced hard.

It's random lol.

No one can predict tomorrow's moves. Grasping at relationships that don't exist. It's mere coincidence.

Maybe traders can make money by applying rules and money management around their guesses, but it's still guessing.

Last week the sky was falling, now we are right back where we started, like the dip never even happened.

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Are we thinking this is a short term bounce with the longer term trend still going down?

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Yes. So we have quite the contrast between posts. Let's see who ends up being right.

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Are we thinking this is a short term bounce with the longer term trend still going down?

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Yes. So we have quite the contrast between posts. Let's see who ends up being right.

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This is a continuation of the sideways trend of the last 6-12 months.

I agree nearly 100% with this chart. One point of disagreement is the comment on returning to the upper support level by 2017. Only other one is the yellow line he says we won't be getting above any time soon. That is probable but a move within the lows of the previous high is possible.

oldarmy1, thanks for your post of the above chart. Under the graph, in light blue, there is a paragraph with several bullet points. Why does it say we won't need oil in 15 years?

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oldarmy1, thanks for your post of the above chart. Under the graph, in light blue, there is a paragraph with several bullet points. Why does it say we won't need oil in 15 years?

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Commentary from the chart's creator. Wasn't it only 15 years ago that we were being told oil wouldn't be needed 15 years from now?

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oldarmy1, thanks for your post of the above chart. Under the graph, in light blue, there is a paragraph with several bullet points. Why does it say we won't need oil in 15 years?

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Commentary from the chart's creator. Wasn't it only 15 years ago that we were being told oil wouldn't be needed 15 years from now?

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Thanks oldarmy. And about 10 years ago we were getting the Peak Oil baloney. I know you're an old salt and know the most dangerous words in investing "This time it's different".

PS: I really enjoy your posts and greatly appreciate your unselfish efforts to coach up the newbies and we old fashion fundamental guys.

Year over year Factory orders continue to go down. 15 months in a row currently.


Inventories are climbing


Class 8 Truck orders continue "tanking" SWIDT?

^^^Those graphs are telling!

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Depends on fundamentals, as technicals always do. A fundamental shoe drops and the past X# days of technicals aren't applicable any longer.

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Geez the trolls just can't resist. Please tell us oh wise wizard what has changed "fundamentally" in the last 4 days to cause a 7% rally in the S&P 500.

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this isn't fundamental - I am guessing that the stock market is following oil. Oil is up so the market is. To me, this doesn't make sense, but you keep hearing that from pundits, so there must be some truth to it.

Most of the fundamentals haven't changed for a while. I think some of the fall was caused by people who think it is going to get worse or a recession. The rally could be some people who are realizing that it (china, oil destruction, banks losing tons of money from oil loans) isn't as bad as they thought or that most leading indicators still aren't showing a recession. Basically, either it hasn't happened yet, so maybe I was wrong or it isn't as bad as I thought so a relief rally.

What does a week or a day have to do with directional analysis? Group some weeks and you have something to talk about. Hey down 3000 up 700....let's all party it's all clear sailing from here!

TWTR on a move

Rolled SBUX 56 strike covered call that expires this week up to the next week 58 strike price. Cost of trade .73....
Will re-visit again next week.

So far net +.96 in comissions, with share price loss of 1.04 at todays closing price. Commissions total .26.
Net -.34 since opening short put 4 weeks ago.