khkman22 said:

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Closed out a short put vertical on HD today (thanks for the heads up on them Bonfire). Got a little greedy and decided not to set to close at 50% profit after their earnings release. They had a short pop before dropping quick. Probably would have closed out that morning, but wound up holding it another two weeks to hit my target of about 57%.

Also closed a strangle on INTC for 50% profit in two weeks.

Finally, closed the short put leg of a Jade Lizard on BBY for minimal profit. Have the short call vertical that should expire worthless unless I am able to close out with a small credit. I'll wind up about with only about 30% on this one.

Returned 5% in 6 weeks on my initial deposit. Don't really have ideas for trades at the moment. Not confident in the market in either direction and iron condors are hard to get good return for my risk tolerance.

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awesome man, sounds like you are way ahead of the curve

hard to fight our human nature and be mechanical on closing at certain percentages, that's why I've said a lot in this thread that's it's one of the hardest parts of the game (I've found most of the time I've tried to hold out for more profits I get bit, never to the point of losing but definitely my anecdotal career experience lines up with the tastytrade research on managing winners...full disclosure I still struggle here and there but the more humblings we get the easier it is to do it right every time LOL

had a good week taking advantage of the NK quick drop the other night, juiced puts pretty good so it was opportunity.....there's a time to be small and a time to load the boat, and that time is when I get some desired VOL spike.....I don't just go full exposed on these moves, I insure my backdoor in case of continuation but I ladder my way in then manage winners accordingly....doesn't always work out this way, in fact it's rare and a welcome change as of late on some of these big down moves, but really nice when the reversal comes quick and relentlessly squeezes the weak hands that put a little to much stock (or short stock) into the news

doesn't always have to be 50%...I never do less than 30% (even on naked options) and you can choose what you find works for you but I'll repost this nice reference chart for a beginning point of managing winners at what x % winners by it coming in on or before x many days

Oldarmy1

What book do you recommend starting with to learn more about investing?

Rafael

https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393246116

https://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Investing-Essentials/dp/0060555661/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1504619271&sr=1-1&keywords=the+intelligent+investor

Good starters for gaining an understanding of the rules of the road. I also was given "The Richest Man in Babylon" which is not about Wall Street but about how to approach what and how you put aside for investing. It definitely worked into my mindset early on.

The covered calls are paying off with North Korea tensions setting the mood on markets. We have a Cat 5 Hurricane looking to hit Florida in the next few days and September 9th is North Korea's National Holiday (a perverted version of our 4th of July) and expectations are for some kind of nuclear show-off test. That will likely increase already strained tensions and might even precipitate a response, so I'd be extremely conservative right now.

Markets are right in the middle of that narrowing wedge (lower highs/higher lows) and appear to be on track to culminate around that September 9th date.

Oh and DACA rescinded creates questions on workers. Lot of impact points this first full week of September so I wouldn't be a buyer of dips right now.

September 5th (today) begins the new SEC T+2 settlement rule (down from T+3). For non-margin account market activity, this could usher in a new era of higher trading volume & liquidity for active traders.

oldarmy1 said:

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so I wouldn't be a buyer of dips right now.

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great analysis as always OA in your previous posts
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full disclosure all, I'm always aware of that stuff but have to play my game which means when the VIX hits up ot 14 like today I definitely have to take a nibble of juiced up VOL...key is keeping small so continuation doesn't melt my face off and as always buying some protection below me to cover my backdoor (and lower buying power) both of which help in having powder dry if I keep to steering into the curve in the event of continuation

key is size though, you can take a good butt kicking early if you haven't out leveraged yourself ....plays into the greed aspect (the other end of the spectrum is the fear side) of management/mechanics i've talked about so much in previous pages. . . .but in keeping the greed side in check, trade relatively small (whatever % works for you, everyones different in pain tolerance and capital) and manage those winners (when you trade well enough to take their money, don't risk giving it back, throw it in your war chest and look for the next one)

also this little dip was a nice quick bonus gift after last weeks NK dip and rip quick money grab...so if I get 30% or close to it soon, I'm grabbing the cash and the hitting exit quick on this one

Anybody been watching Gold?

I bought some calls on AUY (Junior Miner) last week. APR 18 $3.5 for 30 cents

Been killing it on NUGT the last couple of weeks.

redsox34 said:

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Anybody been watching Gold?

I bought some calls on AUY (Junior Miner) last week. APR 18 $3.5 for 30 cents

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These are the kind of charts you guys can help each other make money with by posting as the patterns form. Long term down trend has the huge volume day but stock doesn't rip way down lower. This tells you there are long term big buyers coming in. Then you set a new low a couple of weeks later (the flash down clear out move we have discussed multiple times) that quickly recovers thus creating a reverse bullish head and shoulders opportunity. Aggressive buyers would be buying through this period using the huge volume signal of a bottom reversal. Otherwise you wait until you see the break out of that first resistance and then see the current approach to the next resistance after a very nice % gain.

So much money can be made using this one strategy.

oldarmy1 said:

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At any rate my personal macro strategy right now is to lighten my overall holding again and build up the cash side.

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Be sure to let us know when we should get back in.

By other comments, it's obvious you aren't using simple traditional TA to trade. By suggesting others do so, you're setting them up to get destroyed. Traditional TA trading, you might as well give your money to the sophisticated players.

I prefer to research and buy a company that makes a product or service I know people are buying, not something based on a chart

queso1 said:

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I prefer to research and buy a company that makes a product or service I know people are buying, not something based on a chart

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Many ways to make money in this game. I prefer not to waste my time on such endeavors. Multiple studies have been done that say you could throw darts at a bunch of random names and still make money as long as you mange risk.

Never said there was anything wrong with that, and large positions I take I guarantee you have had more in-depth analysis than most anyone.

That said I also enjoy making lots of money over shorter periods of time, with less exposure of my capital by utilizing all the markets give for leverage and protection, using TA.

claym711 said:

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By other comments, it's obvious you aren't using simple traditional TA to trade. By suggesting others do so, you're setting them up to get destroyed. Traditional TA trading, you might as well give your money to the sophisticated players.

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See previous post for partial reply. As for the TA I say people with any stocks they are watching should factor entry/exit based on strong technical indicators as well as fundamentals. I suggest they add it into their arsenal.

I agree risk management is the key & there is more than one way to make money. I use both TA & fundamentals -- fully automated trading to eliminate behavioral biases. I think the charts do tell a story of supply/demand in a price auction, with an element of poker bluffs. I also don't believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis (fake news).

EMH is definitely fake news. I can't believe they still teach it in school.

As for FA, all I can see is my valuation professor from last semester yelling at the clouds about how FB, GOOG, APPL, AMZN, BABA, and everything in between is overvalued as he was missing out on a huge rally. He also frequently referred to it as an 'art' meaning it is entirely subjective. Projecting revenues 15 years into the future is no less of a guess than any form of price based trading but with a **** load more work.

Looking at AAOI for possible long here soon. Massive selloff since July with short float of 58% now and still above 200MA.

Also watching FTR for possible mean reversion play with it being so far under its 200SMA and pretty large short float of 30%. It's dividend yield is now almost 18% too after the beatdown it has taken this year haha

Not pulling the trigger on either just yet, just some ideas worth watching, IMO.

I've also been trying to find some names to sell vertical spreads in, but have come up dry for the past week or so except for a name or two. Just can't find enough premium. Anyone have some ideas?

QQQ or XLK, AAPL (if you want to play the 8 announcement and/or earnings), XRT, XOP, FB, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, and NFLX all have decent IV Ranks right now.

Thanks Gator!

Ended up selling an Iron Condor in AAPL(short strikes 170 & 150), a put spread in GOOG, and rolled my put spread in NFLX.

Also, went a little contrarian here, but sold some put spreads in EFX after the dump the past 2 trading sessions.

Sold a short call vertical today on COST with the $163/$165 strikes for the 10/20 expiration. Not a lot of premium, but fits my risk profile. Looking to close at 50%, hopefully before earnings.

How far out did you sell the AAPL IC? Should see some good volatility crush tomorrow unless it's also an earnings trade.

That is what I'm hoping for. Sold them 38 days out so they expire the week before earnings.

redsox34 said:

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Thanks Gator!

Ended up selling an Iron Condor in AAPL(short strikes 170 & 150), a put spread in GOOG, and rolled my put spread in NFLX.

Also, went a little contrarian here, but sold some put spreads in EFX after the dump the past 2 trading sessions.

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Got a little lucky and closed out my EFX put spread for +30% this morning, right before another huge dump. Thinking about going back in again. This is exactly why you have to manage those quick winners though. Had a CMG call spread up about 35-40% a few days ago that is now about even.

Also, closed out my AAPL Iron Condor for +27% in a couple days.

redsox34 said:

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This is exactly why you have to manage those quick winners though. Had a CMG call spread up about 35-40% a few days ago that is now about even.

Also, closed out my AAPL Iron Condor for +27% in a couple days.

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yeah, and not to keep selling it but tastyworks commissions makes it a no brainer and why I endorose it wholeheartedly...been doing a lot of verticals in that account while I wait for futures options to fully fund it, but man it's awesome...with TDA @1.50 per contract rates you're looking at $6 round trip on commissions for a vertical spread, now it's $2 (one for each open and free closing costs)...when doing a dollar wide vertical and max win per spread is about $30-$33 it's a big deal when you only need to hit $22 gross to make $20 vs. with TDA and having to hit almost a full winner at $26 to make $20 (first 15-20 comes in quick but often slower treading after that)...hell I'll even take it at $17 if it comes in quick enough (I'm not too good to walk past $15 on the street with no soul around to claim it but me) even $10net if it's super quick....

hell if you want to take both sides/neutral Iron Condors are only $4 round trip vs $12 (low commission and the zero closing cost is the game changer) it adds up quick and puts a huge ding in net profits, believe me as a full timer the extent is nauseating cannot wait to be full funded at tastyworks

those rates are awesome and empowering, hard enough to make money without TD and other firms elbow deep in your pocket ...other than VXX set up as a hedge I haven't messed with verticals in years but it's been really fun and nice beer/steak/gas money lately just quickly managing winners their commissions afford
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I'm going to post some nice vertical spread quick reference (with some detail and quick cheat for beginnners keeping strait which of the four spreads are bullish/bearish---simple but can be confusing at first)...little different than my normal posts b/c it's not about my core deal I've covered here exhaustively

Doing an Iron Condor in ORCL an earnings play they announce after the bell.

Usually I'd never fiddle with Iron Condors b/c legs and commissions. again round trip in my TDA acct would be at 1.50 per contract would be $12 on commission alone.

But w/ my tastywork acct, $4 round trip (all on the front end, closing costs free). If I did it as a short put vertical (bullish) where my strikes are it'd be that typical setup where max win $41 and max loss $59. But making it neutral the other side is $30 max loss 70. Throw it together and I've got max win of $71 and one side winning negates some max loss and buying power overall so set up is MAX WIN $71 and MAX LOSS $29.

I'm indifferent to what I think I know (I talk to Randy when things get crazy but I've personally never been able to benefit consistently from tech/fundamental analysis, so I'm laughing at the above cracks on efficient markets/quant approach---tons of ways to skin a cat so no judgement on my end but I think one of my strengths is knowing nothing and fully acknowledging I know nothing, trusting efficient markets and probability to shake out over time. To each his own, I'll glance at a chart for where something is in relation to overall range and see if any noteable volume at those levels but that's about it.

Anyways I digress, no probability edge on this as that stuff is kind of out the window on earnings. Neutral on the move and my only bias is maybe expected move is overstated and if not it's not gonna leave a mark or even much of scratch. I'm playing it tight range though more b/c if it does a crazy earnings move it's just gonna blow hard through strikes regardless, this way I just lose less and stand to win more for the risk. I could hit the max loss on either side if it blows through either way but cheap way (max loss and buying power) to play an earnings event as I'm just looking for some action and putting things into practice (haven't taken the vertical or iron condor out of my golf bag in a while, and I've had some good wins with them this week so overall far better than a net free play).

Anyways it's not just a cool and profitable skill set, but damn it's fun. If you guys reading these threads aren't really into it as a passion don't waste your time b/c you're not likely going to put in the work to get good, but if you love it, man for me it's right up there with my passion for college football (and I actually get to control the W/L record and the net P/L winning % ).

aggiemetal said:

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Doing an Iron Condor in ORCL an earnings play they announce after the bell.

Usually I'd never fiddle with Iron Condors b/c legs and commissions. again round trip in my TDA acct would be at 1.50 per contract would be $12 on commission alone.

But w/ my tastywork acct, $4 round trip (all on the front end, closing costs free). If I did it as a short put vertical (bullish) where my strikes are it'd be that typical setup where max win $41 and max loss $59. But making it neutral the other side is $30 max loss 70. Throw it together and I've got max win of $71 and one side winning negates some max loss and buying power overall so set up is MAX WIN $71 and MAX LOSS $29.

I'm indifferent to what I think I know (I talk to Randy when things get crazy but I've personally never been able to benefit consistently from tech/fundamental analysis, so I'm laughing at the above cracks on efficient markets/quant approach---tons of ways to skin a cat so no judgement on my end but I think one of my strengths is knowing nothing and fully acknowledging I know nothing, trusting efficient markets and probability to shake out over time. To each his own, I'll glance at a chart for where something is in relation to overall range and see if any noteable volume at those levels but that's about it.

Anyways I digress, no probability edge on this as that stuff is kind of out the window on earnings. Neutral on the move and my only bias is maybe expected move is overstated and if not it's not gonna leave a mark or even much of scratch. I'm playing it tight range though more b/c if it does a crazy earnings move it's just gonna blow hard through strikes regardless, this way I just lose less and stand to win more for the risk. I could hit the max loss on either side if it blows through either way but cheap way (max loss and buying power) to play an earnings event as I'm just looking for some action and putting things into practice (haven't taken the vertical or iron condor out of my golf bag in a while, and I've had some good wins with them this week so overall far better than a net free play).

Anyways it's not just a cool and profitable skill set, but damn it's fun. If you guys reading these threads aren't really into it as a passion don't waste your time b/c you're not likely going to put in the work to get good, but if you love it, man for me it's right up there with my passion for college football (and I actually get to control the W/L record and the net P/L winning % ).

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Is this a 10/27 $51/$52 & $54/$55 trade? I realize the potential loss is low, but having only a 30% POP is not normal for you, right?

khkman22 said:

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aggiemetal said:

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Doing an Iron Condor in ORCL an earnings play they announce after the bell.

Usually I'd never fiddle with Iron Condors b/c legs and commissions. again round trip in my TDA acct would be at 1.50 per contract would be $12 on commission alone.

But w/ my tastywork acct, $4 round trip (all on the front end, closing costs free). If I did it as a short put vertical (bullish) where my strikes are it'd be that typical setup where max win $41 and max loss $59. But making it neutral the other side is $30 max loss 70. Throw it together and I've got max win of $71 and one side winning negates some max loss and buying power overall so set up is MAX WIN $71 and MAX LOSS $29.

I'm indifferent to what I think I know (I talk to Randy when things get crazy but I've personally never been able to benefit consistently from tech/fundamental analysis, so I'm laughing at the above cracks on efficient markets/quant approach---tons of ways to skin a cat so no judgement on my end but I think one of my strengths is knowing nothing and fully acknowledging I know nothing, trusting efficient markets and probability to shake out over time. To each his own, I'll glance at a chart for where something is in relation to overall range and see if any noteable volume at those levels but that's about it.

Anyways I digress, no probability edge on this as that stuff is kind of out the window on earnings. Neutral on the move and my only bias is maybe expected move is overstated and if not it's not gonna leave a mark or even much of scratch. I'm playing it tight range though more b/c if it does a crazy earnings move it's just gonna blow hard through strikes regardless, this way I just lose less and stand to win more for the risk. I could hit the max loss on either side if it blows through either way but cheap way (max loss and buying power) to play an earnings event as I'm just looking for some action and putting things into practice (haven't taken the vertical or iron condor out of my golf bag in a while, and I've had some good wins with them this week so overall far better than a net free play).

Anyways it's not just a cool and profitable skill set, but damn it's fun. If you guys reading these threads aren't really into it as a passion don't waste your time b/c you're not likely going to put in the work to get good, but if you love it, man for me it's right up there with my passion for college football (and I actually get to control the W/L record and the net P/L winning % ).

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Is this a 10/27 $51/$52 & $54/$55 trade? I realize the potential loss is low, but having only a 30% POP is not normal for you, right?

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yeah not my norm just a stab, again just taking some different clubs out of the golf bag to play with and get used to using more and more as part of overall portfolio now that it makes sense to do it (not under the TDA commission schedule)

you were close on strikes but just a quick one on tomorrows sep15 and 51.5/52.5 puts
the put side is 54%
the call side is 64%
so yeah add that prob youu give up together and prob is really low

i already had the bullish put side on for a few days and it was on the dance floor but vol ramp up for earnings negated any gain it'd have had so figured I'd throw on the other side to diminish loss and if it sticks great..also hoping stagnant market last two days at these levels kind of tempers its big ramp either way

LOL so far so good, had typical earnings move shake out to the top and shake out to the bottom and both extreme were shy of the edges on my dance floor, hopefully she stays b/w there at the open

What's your plan to close it out tomorrow? Did you just set it for 50% and hope it hits? If it blows through either way and both calls or puts are exercised, what is the cost for exercising? $5/contract? Not too big of a deal if you just did one of each, but if you did four or five, it could get fairly expensive if you are not able to close all of them.

khkman22

nice she's dead center for now, i'm not out of the woods on the upper end but it's still hasn't breached ideal upper end of $54 and can't lose up to $54.75

it's pretty liquid so I should get filled at a fairly fair price but I'm going to set an order before the open

I'll likely manage each vertical separately just in case it's hard to get filled on the whole iron condor as the market starts rocking around on the open (it's triple witching so it may be weird and wonky anyways)

kind of depends what edge it's sitting on for exactly how much I shoot to take on each end

If it stays on upper end and I'm in really good shape on the $41 i can make on the puts, and I'll either let it sit or maybe take it in mid $30's..... if it really ends up pushing my short call side then I'll let it run and see what's looking feasable on that end....I'm not real greedy so I'll be happy for anything $30-$40 but may well make more (I'll know more tomorrow morning and set orders on both side before open then)

khkman22 said:

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What's your plan to close it out tomorrow? Did you just set it for 50% and hope it hits? If it blows through either way and both calls or puts are exercised, what is the cost for exercising? $5/contract? Not too big of a deal if you just did one of each, but if you did four or five, it could get fairly expensive if you are not able to close all of them.

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LOL so that didn't last but I cut what would have been a $60 loser (with existing put vertical) to $29 with the short call vertical hitting. Why I wasn't real worried about taking lower odds, it just have easily could have floated on the dance floor and hit for a good profit but at worst I wasn't taking a full loser on original position (crappy as it was LOL). Bummer though, thought I had 'em after that first hour.

This reply is in regards to points brought up in the Equifax thread from the option volumes in play after the data breach announcement.

Quote:

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Total volume for the $60 put is 27k. Compare that to the other strikes.
Next highest on the put side are the $80 strikes with a little under 6k in volume.

Highest on the call side are the $115 strikes with less than 2k in volume.

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I'm curious as to the opinions of the board weather this is cheap insurance bought against those with larger volumes of stock or if this is in fact a play betting that EFX is headed further down?

Past corporate data breaches

• Ashley Madison: 2015 33 million user accounts
• Anthem: 2015 80 million patient and employee records
• Ebay: 2014 145 million customer accounts
• JP Morgan Chase: 2014 76 million households and 7 million businesses
• Home Depot: 2014 56 million credit cards
• Sony Pictures: 2014 3000 current and former employees
• Target: 2013 40 million credit/debit users + 70 million customers
• Global Payments Inc.: 2012 1.5 million card holders
• Tricare: 2011 5 million military beneficiaries
• Citibank: 2011 360k card holders
• Heartland: 2009 130 million cards

While it's all well and good to ride the FANG train and whatever else shows upward movement or buttering your bread via neutral movement (and I certainly do), what would be the savvy play here?

In all the data breaches I feel as though the initial reports seldom tell the full extent of the damage and the leak. I expect further damning details with regards to EFX over the coming days/weeks. Likely this news will be in conjunction with remedies EFX proposes.

Has anyone attempted plays on any of the previous data breaches?