SPY - What's next?
If you ask me right now, I'd say it wants to go up. Everything is in place except an impulsive waves [1]-[2] for c of (v). At best you would call the last high a [1] in diagonal form, but even that is not clear. That move was choppy and very overlapping. C waves are 5-wave structures, which would require their first wave to also be a 5 wave structure. I don't see 5 waves off last Monday's low. But my main doubt on up being next comes from the c of (iii) ending diagonal. While it hit the top of my reversal box, it was not a full reversal to $565. The timeline for reversal runs through Feb 14h give or take. While it doesn't HAVE to go lower again, if it does, it will likely do so within the ED reversal timeline. And that reversal would also give it the overlap with wave (i) that is common in diagonals. Until resistance breaks, I'm staying on high alert for potential drop this week through as late as Monday. If we do get that drop, watch for that $565 range for one more buy the dip. That would also kick the topping timeline from mid February to sometime in March or even April. Anything below $565 would start to raise the probability that a top is in. Breaking $537 would cement it and I would be watching for $500.
If you ask me right now, I'd say it wants to go up. Everything is in place except an impulsive waves [1]-[2] for c of (v). At best you would call the last high a [1] in diagonal form, but even that is not clear. That move was choppy and very overlapping. C waves are 5-wave structures, which would require their first wave to also be a 5 wave structure. I don't see 5 waves off last Monday's low. But my main doubt on up being next comes from the c of (iii) ending diagonal. While it hit the top of my reversal box, it was not a full reversal to $565. The timeline for reversal runs through Feb 14h give or take. While it doesn't HAVE to go lower again, if it does, it will likely do so within the ED reversal timeline. And that reversal would also give it the overlap with wave (i) that is common in diagonals. Until resistance breaks, I'm staying on high alert for potential drop this week through as late as Monday. If we do get that drop, watch for that $565 range for one more buy the dip. That would also kick the topping timeline from mid February to sometime in March or even April. Anything below $565 would start to raise the probability that a top is in. Breaking $537 would cement it and I would be watching for $500.
LOL