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Last: 47 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
An interesting chart here showing GOLD vs DXY (the dollar measured against a basket of other currencies), compared to GOLD vs SPX. The first relationship (GOLD/DXY) is showing the value of gold against the value of the dollar, while the second shows the value of gold against the value of SPX. These two relationships are on the same scale. My notes on the chart explain up until present.
Right now, gold is gaining against the dollar and range bound against the SPX off its post 2011 high but still above it's 2000 low. In other words, the two relationships are diverging. The first time this happened was in the mid 1980's when the value of equities decoupled from the value of gold as government stimulus spending started inflating asset values. From there, the value of equities continued to mostly gain against gold even in times that the dollar was strengthening. That all ended in 2000 when the stock market crashed for two years and gold reigned supreme until the end of the GFC, when the government injected the same amount of stimulus in one go that it had in total leading up to that event. This expansion of the money supply inflated assets in an extreme way over the following 10 years. The value of the dollar even gained against gold until 2015 as global liquidity left even the longest store of value to flood into equities. But since 2020, these two relationships are diverging. Gold is mostly maintaining against equities while strongly rising against the dollar. This while the SPX continues making new highs. The last time this current type of divergence happened was 2017-2018 and 2009-2011 at a greater extent.
Right now, gold is gaining against the dollar and range bound against the SPX off its post 2011 high but still above it's 2000 low. In other words, the two relationships are diverging. The first time this happened was in the mid 1980's when the value of equities decoupled from the value of gold as government stimulus spending started inflating asset values. From there, the value of equities continued to mostly gain against gold even in times that the dollar was strengthening. That all ended in 2000 when the stock market crashed for two years and gold reigned supreme until the end of the GFC, when the government injected the same amount of stimulus in one go that it had in total leading up to that event. This expansion of the money supply inflated assets in an extreme way over the following 10 years. The value of the dollar even gained against gold until 2015 as global liquidity left even the longest store of value to flood into equities. But since 2020, these two relationships are diverging. Gold is mostly maintaining against equities while strongly rising against the dollar. This while the SPX continues making new highs. The last time this current type of divergence happened was 2017-2018 and 2009-2011 at a greater extent.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Then John Cornyn"s does't have a chance either?ProgN said:I said it's very very good, not that it can perform miracles.Heineken-Ashi said:
I bet that would have made Lincoln Riley's brisket edible, but just barely.
Weve known the inflation data sources are cooked and employment PRs have been overstated 25% or more. There has been a bit of mainstream coverage lately, but it's not being covered in a scandalous way. If a corporation pumped with BS numbers and quiet revisions afterward, they would get punished. It works until it doesn't....
spud1910 said:Then John Cornyn"s does't have a chance either?ProgN said:I said it's very very good, not that it can perform miracles.Heineken-Ashi said:
I bet that would have made Lincoln Riley's brisket edible, but just barely.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Sorry for bringing bad mojo to the thread with awful brisket attempts. Getting back on track with a true hottie..
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Damn that looks good. Is that from somewhere around central tx area?
El_duderino said:
Damn that looks good. Is that from somewhere around central tx area?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I'll take that as a no?
I'll take that as Franklin's…El_duderino said:
I'll take that as a no?
Oof. Didn't even catch the Franklins/Ben Franklin tie. It's been a long ass weekend on shift so my brain isn't all the way there at this point
How do I know that he's been in DC too long and no longer a Texan? No self respecting Texan would voluntarily post that crap and call it BBQ.spud1910 said:Then John Cornyn"s does't have a chance either?ProgN said:I said it's very very good, not that it can perform miracles.Heineken-Ashi said:
I bet that would have made Lincoln Riley's brisket edible, but just barely.
That's a fact. Looks more like ****ty fajita meat all cut up with ketchup on top than supposed brisket
spud1910 said:Then John Cornyn"s does't have a chance either?ProgN said:I said it's very very good, not that it can perform miracles.Heineken-Ashi said:
I bet that would have made Lincoln Riley's brisket edible, but just barely.
Horse meat
surprisingly not terrible for fast food
Would Boeing consider Wells Fargo recommendation to issue 190 million in shares to raise $30 billion and survive strike/pay down debt? Not sure how likely it is they hold $150/share if they do that, but they do need more liquidity.
There was a discussion on CNBC about domestic construction materials companies, and their potential if the big east coast port strike occurs. Specifically mentioned were Cemex (CX) and Martin Marietta (MLM). After some basic research, I'm thinking CX March $7 calls look like a good risk/reward tradeoff. This is a hero/zero kind of proposition - meant only for risk capital. Any other ideas in this sector?
I am not as knowledgeable about construction in the NE as Texas, but there are a ton of ports and curious at the percentage that the port actually has. Based on ChatGPT, it is about 15%. It seems 9/12 regional bank financial districts shows slowing growth and I would imaging the NE is one of them. I can't imagine the dems would allow this to go on very long due to the election and how unions are slowly turning towards trump. Well timed tacit by them to get leverage knowing the Dems are in trouble.I bleed maroon said:
There was a discussion on CNBC about domestic construction materials companies, and their potential if the big east coast port strike occurs. Specifically mentioned were Cemex (CX) and Martin Marietta (MLM). After some basic research, I'm thinking CX March $7 calls look like a good risk/reward tradeoff. This is a hero/zero kind of proposition - meant only for risk capital. Any other ideas in this sector?
Something to dig into more and I like this perspective. When Long Beach had their strike, it seemed like the US was going to stand still, but the impact wasn't as big as they made it out. MM and Cemex have such a strong southern play that they should be strong. I know OA was big on Cemex a long time ago and it took a while to grow.
I'm going to sell half of my POWL shares after this post
It just spiked up over $216. Sold some of mine just over $212
I'm going to let it cool off and will go back in when it pulls back
It was a good trade
It was a good trade
Tempting to take my 40% gain.
SMCI $480-$500 near term resistance. $430 support.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Option Trading Update:
Speculative option trades (bullish) in past 2 months:
In total, dollars-invested weighted, up high single digits. All in all, not really worth the effort. Most new trades anticipated are put buys. I have plenty of other strangles (long volatility) trades on individual stocks (very hit-and-miss), and a lot of covered calls (which have performed GREAT) or protective puts (mixed results). In total, I have 30 or so open option positions, and I don't recommend this approach. :/
Speculative option trades (bullish) in past 2 months:
- DDD calls +11.74%
- AAP calls (-71.34%)
- CLF calls +40.82%
- FDX calls (-8.9%)
- RIG calls +79.69%
- MBLY calls (-54.0%)
In total, dollars-invested weighted, up high single digits. All in all, not really worth the effort. Most new trades anticipated are put buys. I have plenty of other strangles (long volatility) trades on individual stocks (very hit-and-miss), and a lot of covered calls (which have performed GREAT) or protective puts (mixed results). In total, I have 30 or so open option positions, and I don't recommend this approach. :/
what's the Bacon Jam on there? do you buy it and mix it in or make it separate? Recipe looks carnivore friendly too! (long as I consume it with pork rinds).ProgN said:
Hey gang,
If you like to entertain guest for football games or whenever try this dip recipe. I picked it up from HEB today and it's extremely easy to make and it's incredible. I didn't use habaneros though. I did use 2 jalapeños and 1 Serrano though. It really is amazing. I used the hatch and chili lime pita chips instead of crackers. All my friends and family love it and requested the recipe. It'll be something new for your guests, which I like doing.
HEB sells it there at the cooking connection area. Comes in a jar and just mix it in.
Nice call on POWL guys! I'm thinking I will just hold it.
Options are tough. Most especially when attempting to anticipate countertrend moves, which I don't advise for non-experienced trades.I bleed maroon said:
Option Trading Update:
Speculative option trades (bullish) in past 2 months:
- DDD calls +11.74%
- AAP calls (-71.34%)
- CLF calls +40.82%
- FDX calls (-8.9%)
- RIG calls +79.69%
- MBLY calls (-54.0%)
In total, dollars-invested weighted, up high single digits. All in all, not really worth the effort. Most new trades anticipated are put buys. I have plenty of other strangles (long volatility) trades on individual stocks (very hit-and-miss), and a lot of covered calls (which have performed GREAT) or protective puts (mixed results). In total, I have 30 or so open option positions, and I don't recommend this approach. :/
The keys are..
1. Defined risk. Choose either a flat dollar amount or % of account balance and be consistent. In my largest account, I never do an option play that would lose more than 0.5% of my account. In my mid-sized account, I never go over $1,000 in total premium paid. In my smallest <$25k account, I stick to ~2.5% of account value for total premium paid.
2. Have a target. Have a target date. Then build in a little cushion. And no, "I think this stock could double in a week" is not justification for taking an option position that isn't a very small sized lotto. "I see SYMBOL that is currently $40 going $50 within 3 months and earnings are in 2 months" is better as long as your thesis isn't just guessing.
3. Pick the right strike. This requires #2. You have to have a target and timeframe. A stock trading at $75 with a move to $85 expected in 3 months requires an analysis of multiple strikes 2-4 months out. My strategy is to find the strike that would provide the highest maximum return while guaranteeing a 100% minimum profit on expiration day (that way expected profit can be calculated as target minus strike without having to worry about time premium),
Let's take AMD and say we think its going to $190 by election. I would look at multiple expirations using this same analysis, but here's an example of what the November would look like from closest to ATM to strike just below target.
I would pick the $170 strike as it gives the best R/R. If I have a $100,000 account and do no more than $1k per option trade, I know I can afford one contract.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
This is VERY similar to my approach. I think H-A is more disciplined in his exits than I am, but analysis-wise, we're on the same page. For a winning trade, I typically will set a partial exit when a position is up 50%, and half the position if it's up over 100%, and then exit the remainder based on a zero-based ground up approach centered around the "what would I do if this were a brand new position today" method. For losing positions, I vary from a "sell half if it goes down 50%" to "ride or die", understanding that roughly half my buys will end up with zero profit.
CORZ is "potentially" breaking out here. It takes 1-2 weeks to execute warrants as the company has to actually issue new shares into the marketplace for the amount of warrants you convert. But CORZZ warrants have been trading at a fraction of a discount to CORZ due to their $0.01 execution cost. I'm executing ALL of my CORZZ warrants today. I considered selling enough of them to get all of my original capital back plus the cost of the execution, but if its breaking out, why would I sell here? I like going ahead and converting them, placing a stop (once I have the shares IF its trading at new highs) a hair below the recent high that its potentially breaking out over with an amount of shares at that price that would remove all risk, abut also keeping my eye on the $14-$18 area to see if it forms a high. If it does form a high in that range or even higher, I could sell less of the converted shares to get cost back. But the stop means that if it falls back into its ~$10 trading range, I would have all risk removed.
I am not touching the CORZW warrants as they have a $6.81 conversion price and two years left. Ideally, I would execute those much higher and sell enough of them to raise the money to execute the rest.
I am not touching the CORZW warrants as they have a $6.81 conversion price and two years left. Ideally, I would execute those much higher and sell enough of them to raise the money to execute the rest.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Very good discipline! But it does vary by trade. Sometimes I have a min target and max target. Sell enough at min to get net free. There's no clear cut way to manage options. It's all about risk management. The goal is to make more money than had you just bought the shares. But the time decay adds significant risk even though risk is defined by premium paid. So for me, risk management is all on the front end and I rarely sell options for a loss unless I am very confident that the stock wont go back up.I bleed maroon said:
This is VERY similar to my approach. I think H-A is more disciplined in his exits than I am, but analysis-wise, we're on the same page. For a winning trade, I typically will set a partial exit when a position is up 50%, and half the position if it's up over 100%, and then exit the remainder based on a zero-based ground up approach centered around the "what would I do if this were a brand new position today" method. For losing positions, I vary from a "sell half if it goes down 50%" to "ride or die", understanding that roughly half my buys will end up with zero profit.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Volume of 56000 contracts last Friday on $U 30c 10/18 exp. I never trade options by following this, but decided to enter a single 25c 10/18 for $.46. Should it reach that $30 target, it's a 10x for me. If not, I'm only out $46.
Not recommending to follow, but that 56,000 volume means someone knows something to me.
Not recommending to follow, but that 56,000 volume means someone knows something to me.
OK, first warrants for me. IBKR gives me the option to exercise the warrants. So I can just choose that and I am done? It will be cost of shares plus $0.01 per share?Heineken-Ashi said:
CORZ is "potentially" breaking out here. It takes 1-2 weeks to execute warrants as the company has to actually issue new shares into the marketplace for the amount of warrants you convert. But CORZZ warrants have been trading at a fraction of a discount to CORZ due to their $0.01 execution cost. I'm executing ALL of my CORZZ warrants today. I considered selling enough of them to get all of my original capital back plus the cost of the execution, but if its breaking out, why would I sell here? I like going ahead and converting them, placing a stop (once I have the shares IF its trading at new highs) a hair below the recent high that its potentially breaking out over with an amount of shares at that price that would remove all risk, abut also keeping my eye on the $14-$18 area to see if it forms a high. If it does form a high in that range or even higher, I could sell less of the converted shares to get cost back. But the stop means that if it falls back into its ~$10 trading range, I would have all risk removed.
I am not touching the CORZW warrants as they have a $6.81 conversion price and two years left. Ideally, I would execute those much higher and sell enough of them to raise the money to execute the rest.
I would call and check with them.spud1910 said:OK, first warrants for me. IBKR gives me the option to exercise the warrants. So I can just choose that and I am done? It will be cost of shares plus $0.01 per share?Heineken-Ashi said:
CORZ is "potentially" breaking out here. It takes 1-2 weeks to execute warrants as the company has to actually issue new shares into the marketplace for the amount of warrants you convert. But CORZZ warrants have been trading at a fraction of a discount to CORZ due to their $0.01 execution cost. I'm executing ALL of my CORZZ warrants today. I considered selling enough of them to get all of my original capital back plus the cost of the execution, but if its breaking out, why would I sell here? I like going ahead and converting them, placing a stop (once I have the shares IF its trading at new highs) a hair below the recent high that its potentially breaking out over with an amount of shares at that price that would remove all risk, abut also keeping my eye on the $14-$18 area to see if it forms a high. If it does form a high in that range or even higher, I could sell less of the converted shares to get cost back. But the stop means that if it falls back into its ~$10 trading range, I would have all risk removed.
I am not touching the CORZW warrants as they have a $6.81 conversion price and two years left. Ideally, I would execute those much higher and sell enough of them to raise the money to execute the rest.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I'm seeing only 41k open interest and current price $0.23.El_duderino said:
Volume of 56000 contracts last Friday on $U 30c 10/18 exp. I never trade options by following this, but decided to enter a single 25c 10/18 for $.46. Should it reach that $30 target, it's a 10x for me. If not, I'm only out $46.
Not recommending to follow, but that 56,000 volume means someone knows something to me.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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