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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 3:47p, 9/20/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
Saw a post on another board about SLV during the last two presidential elections. 2016 ran to nearly $20 in August from bottom of $13, or around $14 in March. 2020 ran to nearly $30 in August from just under $11 in March. We're currently not even to $22 from a 2024 bottom around $20.

$25 calls are 82 cents in September. $30 would be a 500%+ gain and $40 would be a 1700%+ gain. 30 calls would be about $2k and would net between $15k and $45k if this performs similarly.

I'm strongly considering it. Might even do 50 contracts.
Here was the original thesis on SLV. As the months went on, I made a lot of trades. Many closed out for significant profits. Some didn't work. Some hedges.

Today marked the end of the original thesis.. SLV $30-$40 hoping on an August or September spike that has happened multiple times in history. It obviously hasn't come.. yet. But SLV has been relatively strong and is still setting up a potential big move.

I don't normally do this, and I'm not bragging nor am I complaining. I made some good money on September stuff. I also advised months ago to hold positions and to not do anything more than remove risk as there was plenty of time left and the thesis was still valid. Looking back, May was likely the max value of September stuff. Sucks it didn't get over $30 like we wanted. But it still finished off in a decent place and strikes $28 and lower finished in the money. I took profits multiple times along the way and averaged positions down. Added many new positions. Finally result for Sep 20 expiration in 1 of my 3 accounts is this..




Not great, but WAY BETTER than even two weeks ago. We had the equivalent of a stick save over the last two weeks.

Going forward, I have these positions. Half are already net free. In my other accounts I have the same and even have some already net free October stuff. I also have 5k shares of SLV spread through all accounts. Might add to it if we see below $27 again.



If we get some weakness in the short term, I will be adding to all positions below current basis, and might be initiating more January and even some March or April positions. I still believe we will see $30 silver and $35+ SLV.

Monday starts the clock again. Let's go silver!
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Texaggie7nine
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4:08p, 9/20/24
Got scared and cashed out of POWL at 204. Now the only question is, if it falls monday, what is the reentry point?
7nine
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Heineken-Ashi
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4:15p, 9/20/24
UUUU - Move that stop up to $5.15. No risk now. Even if it turns bearish, the confirmation above the 9/13 high means that we don't let it fall back under. The play is either going to work or we will book tiny profit on a stop.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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4:17p, 9/20/24
BLDE - still nothing broken, but still nothing happening. Original thesis was $10 sometime between November and January. I have November $5 calls and have averaged down to where basis is now 16 cents. If we get a big spike the juices volatility and premiums to 30 cents or higher, I will remove all risk and ride the rest. Otherwise, it's still ride or die.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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4:19p, 9/20/24
CCL - we're up $4-$5 since I posted about it. So close to breaking out. If you are risk averse, you can put your stop at $17.25. Otherwise, original thesis stands.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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4:20p, 9/20/24
KVUE - though I got stopped long ago, some might have stayed in it. Target has been hit. Recommend exit and book gains. At worst, put a stop at $21.85 and don't let it fall back into that range.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 4:22p, 9/20/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
ACHR - Stellantis is going in heavy.

Quote:
  • Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) received an additional $55M funding from Stellantis (STLA) under the companies' strategic funding agreement following the achievement of its transition flight test milestone last month.
  • The latest investment builds on Stellantis' (STLA) series of open market purchases of 8.3M shares of Archer's stock in March this year.
  • During 2023, Stellantis (STLA) invested $110M through a combination of open market stock purchases and investments under the companies' strategic funding agreement.
  • Archer (ACHR) remains on track to complete construction of its high-volume manufacturing facility in Georgia later this year.
Archer Aviation Stock: Flying Towards 2025 Launch (NYSE:ACHR) | Seeking Alpha

Tesla of the skies. Chart looks enticing. Awesome growth story. I'll be forming a position under $5 as once through there, it might not see below that again. Stop will be $2.95 with multi-year price target of $20, and as high as potentially $40 within 3-4 years. Not expecting this to be a quick play, and definitely expecting some significant swings as it moves up, but like I said, form a position here and your basis should be pretty safe once we roll into 2025 and beyond.
Been ugly. Can't blame you if you got stopped. Might see one more low into the $2's. I'm still holding though. Once we have confirmation of a bottom I can project updated targets. As of now, I'm not sure if we will get more than $10 on a bullish push. But a lot can change.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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4:24p, 9/20/24
WEAT - another ugly one. I initiated on the possibility of ag commodities bottoming. They've kept falling. Nothing to really predict here, so I'm just long term holding. If we get re-inflation, this will fly. No reason to dump it here as its not a large enough position to hurt me. Worst case scenario would be a stock split, but there's no history of that happening.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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4:26p, 9/20/24
MRO - One more push up? $30 would be first signs of a breakout with $32 confirming. I have about 25% of my energy plays left that haven't been stopped. This is one of the better.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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4:26p, 9/20/24
NOV - Hasn't done anything all year. But could have a setup in place. Need it get moving. Holding.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Bird Poo
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 4:28p, 9/20/24
AG
I'm still not sold on eVTOLs. They have to have a place to land, and that rent is EXPENSIVE. We have VTOLs, they're called helicopters.
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El_duderino
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In reply to Texaggie7nine • 4:29p, 9/20/24
Nothing scared about taking profits. Especially if you got in around $150 or below. Hell even $160 entry gets you 25% profit cashing out at $204.

I'm re entering anywhere between $120-$150. Preferably $140 or below should the macro roll over.
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Heineken-Ashi
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4:30p, 9/20/24
CLSK - Still not sold on bullish or bearish short term. $8 puts I sold are well in the money. Still holding them. 500 shares at basis of $9. Not selling. Will only add on weakness.

MARA very similar.

IREN - Had raised stop and got stopped.

RIOT - got stopped.

CORZ - insanely green from buying before they came out of bankruptcy and inherited the warrants. Conversion of warrants makes most sense around $16. Hoping it gets there. Will sell enough shares to pay for the warrant conversion, and then sell enough more to go net free and ride the rest.

Still think the best BTC miners are MARA and CLSK. Highest upside. RIOT much better than 6 months ago. BTC still not convinced we're going to new highs yet. Lot to prove.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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4:31p, 9/20/24
Ok, done spamming. Happy weekend board. Some great traders here. Love you guys. Stay green, but BTHO Bowling Green and let's make them red.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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E
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 4:33p, 9/20/24
AG
Thanks for the SLV info!

See ya in 4 years for the next election...
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El_duderino
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 4:34p, 9/20/24
Thanks for all your input and thoughts here Heineken

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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to El_duderino • 4:40p, 9/20/24
El_duderino said:
Thanks for all your input and thoughts here Heineken

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 4:42p, 9/20/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
CLSK - Still not sold on bullish or bearish short term. $8 puts I sold are well in the money. Still holding them. 500 shares at basis of $9. Not selling. Will only add on weakness.

MARA very similar.

IREN - Had raised stop and got stopped.

RIOT - got stopped.

CORZ - insanely green from buying before they came out of bankruptcy and inherited the warrants. Conversion of warrants makes most sense around $16. Hoping it gets there. Will sell enough shares to pay for the warrant conversion, and then sell enough more to go net free and ride the rest.

Still think the best BTC miners are MARA and CLSK. Highest upside. RIOT much better than 6 months ago. BTC still not convinced we're going to new highs yet. Lot to prove.
Honestly, BTC miners seem to have decoupled from Bitcoin itself. Is that what you've seen? For example, bitcoin dips to 59k, then rips to 62k, MARA and CLSK do next to nothing in that span. Is the safer play here now just bitcoin ETF?

here's MARA, vs Bitcoin vs GBTC

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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brewmaster • 4:47p, 9/20/24
Brewmaster said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
CLSK - Still not sold on bullish or bearish short term. $8 puts I sold are well in the money. Still holding them. 500 shares at basis of $9. Not selling. Will only add on weakness.

MARA very similar.

IREN - Had raised stop and got stopped.

RIOT - got stopped.

CORZ - insanely green from buying before they came out of bankruptcy and inherited the warrants. Conversion of warrants makes most sense around $16. Hoping it gets there. Will sell enough shares to pay for the warrant conversion, and then sell enough more to go net free and ride the rest.

Still think the best BTC miners are MARA and CLSK. Highest upside. RIOT much better than 6 months ago. BTC still not convinced we're going to new highs yet. Lot to prove.
Honestly, BTC miners seem to have decoupled from Bitcoin itself. Is that what you've seen? For example, bitcoin dips to 59k, then rips to 62k, MARA and CLSK do next to nothing in that span. Is the safer play here now just bitcoin ETF?

here's MARA, vs Bitcoin vs GBTC

Ya, it's not ideal. Not sure what it means. Will do some research. Most bearishness has likely happened, but there's still runway for a little more if they want it.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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ProgN
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In reply to Texaggie7nine • 5:38p, 9/20/24
Texaggie7nine said:
Got scared and cashed out of POWL at 204. Now the only question is, if it falls monday, what is the reentry point?
Nothing wrong with booking profits, especially on a Friday because it makes your weekend better.

FWIW, I've been debating with myself about lightening up with half my POWL positions, here's why.

1) The SPX is trading at almost 24X next years earnings. The historical average is 20X on the high side so it's way overvalued imho.

2) The Fed cut 50 bps yesterday because they see the economy slowing. How can earning projections not be lowered due to a slowing economy and rising layoffs? You saw what happened to FDX post ER. If multiple companies miss and WS starts lowering earnings estimates, then hold your butts. I'm not worried about POWL's earnings, but a microcap with a tiny float will get crushed in a macro selloff.

3) The last 2 weeks of September and first 2-3 weeks of October are more often punishing than they're profitable, especially heading into a highly emotional Presidential election.

4) I think earnings/guidance next month by a lot of companies will not be good enough for WS.

If POWL doesn't breakout Monday, maybe Tuesday, then I be selling half of my position in it across all accounts. Like always, I will post immediately before I execute those sells.

It has nothing to do with POWL because this unicorn is strong. It's my intention to go back into it with even more shares if it hits $150 or less.


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BlueTaze
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5:50p, 9/20/24
Big bear trap squeeze since last week, and a Powell 50pt cut pump this week. Everyone seems to be bullish near term. A healthy correction into early October would be ideal for stability near election day. Went to more cash and small SPY put position just in case.

Further melt up from current ATHs is probably what fed doesn't want in a cutting cycle. My guess is they want chop or healthy pullback near term.

The messaging is "things aren't looking great under hood, but rest asured we will manipulate things to keep your retirement accounts afloat."

I think the biggest unspoken medium term concern for fed is the boomer workforce outflow and their massive income contribition auto-bid on S&P disappearing. Very worse case is depletion of SS funds and market crash at same time in next several years.....not to mention AI and tech displacing jobs.

Powell prob just wants to juggle the hot potatoe on to the next guy for all that mess years down the road.
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gougler08
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In reply to ProgN • 7:46p, 9/20/24
AG
ProgN said:
Texaggie7nine said:
Got scared and cashed out of POWL at 204. Now the only question is, if it falls monday, what is the reentry point?
Nothing wrong with booking profits, especially on a Friday because it makes your weekend better.

FWIW, I've been debating with myself about lightening up with half my POWL positions, here's why.

1) The SPX is trading at almost 24X next years earnings. The historical average is 20X on the high side so it's way overvalued imho.

2) The Fed cut 50 bps yesterday because they see the economy slowing. How can earning projections not be lowered due to a slowing economy and rising layoffs? You saw what happened to FDX post ER. If multiple companies miss and WS starts lowering earnings estimates, then hold your butts. I'm not worried about POWL's earnings, but a microcap with a tiny float will get crushed in a macro selloff.

3) The last 2 weeks of September and first 2-3 weeks of October are more often punishing than they're profitable, especially heading into a highly emotional Presidential election.

4) I think earnings/guidance next month by a lot of companies will not be good enough for WS.

If POWL doesn't breakout Monday, maybe Tuesday, then I be selling half of my position in it across all accounts. Like always, I will post immediately before I execute those sells.

It has nothing to do with POWL because this unicorn is strong. It's my intention to go back into it with even more shares if it hits $150 or less.




Set my alert for $150 earlier today and I'll be hopping in bigly if it gets there
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SW AG80
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In reply to gougler08 • 8:37p, 9/20/24
AG
Isn't POWL's next ER early November?
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ProgN
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In reply to SW AG80 • 8:39p, 9/20/24
SW AG80 said:
Isn't POWL's next ER early November?
12/3 AH
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spud1910
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:01p, 9/20/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:


CORZ - insanely green from buying before they came out of bankruptcy and inherited the warrants. Conversion of warrants makes most sense around $16. Hoping it gets there. Will sell enough shares to pay for the warrant conversion, and then sell enough more to go net free and ride the rest.

Watching you closely here. I got in when you first mentioned it.
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giddings_ag_06
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9:07p, 9/20/24
AG
Stock trading is just so crazy and makes so little sense that I'm actually in conservation mode and semi on the sidelines. I'm majority cash and may dabble with 30-40% of my trading money, but I just can't convince myself to trade like I have the past few years. Earnings releases can seem good, but one negative comment, down 10-15% AH. Company loses money left and right, but thinks next quarter will be better, up 15% AH. I don't trade options and usually just swing trade and everything right now just feels risky with a crappy economy and somehow a market at an all time high. Heck, POWL had me glad at $170 to make a 2% profit after the last dip and now I watch it shoot up the past few days AFTER the Fed report. I've learned a ton on this thread from some of you, but I think I'm finally at a point where I'm hesitant and not confident in the market as a whole. Just crazy considering the market just goes up, up, up…
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ProgN
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In reply to giddings_ag_06 • 10:13p, 9/20/24
giddings_ag_06 said:
Stock trading is just so crazy and makes so little sense that I'm actually in conservation mode and semi on the sidelines. I'm majority cash and may dabble with 30-40% of my trading money, but I just can't convince myself to trade like I have the past few years. Earnings releases can seem good, but one negative comment, down 10-15% AH. Company loses money left and right, but thinks next quarter will be better, up 15% AH. I don't trade options and usually just swing trade and everything right now just feels risky with a crappy economy and somehow a market at an all time high. Heck, POWL had me glad at $170 to make a 2% profit after the last dip and now I watch it shoot up the past few days AFTER the Fed report. I've learned a ton on this thread from some of you, but I think I'm finally at a point where I'm hesitant and not confident in the market as a whole. Just crazy considering the market just goes up, up, up…
Don't deploy any of your cash pile into stocks right now would be my advice if you were my client. This time of year is historically the worst and punishing. The charts look atrocious for committing new money. I'd be patient and ignore FOMO because odds are you'll be bag holding instead of ready to pounce on the right setup. POWL could retrace to the $150 range, then be ready to take advantage of that opportunity. In the meantime, take this pause to research POWL and any other stocks that interest you fundamentally. Doing this will remove a lot of self-doubt on your entries and exits of those stocks. It also decreases your stress level.
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:30a, 9/21/24
Do you know how to spot divergences?

Divergence: a deviation from a course or standard.

Here's a quick case study. This is a weekly chart of Apollo Global Management, APO. All you need for this is the stock chart and RSI. I have numbered the most noticeable points of weekly divergence.



Using nothing but RSI and trendline analysis, divergence in when price is going in one direction while RSI is going in the other. The divergence from price and RSI following the same general trajectory is a clue that a significant reversal or trend change is coming.

Start on the left. Notice that in 2013, RSI peaked and started putting in lower highs and trending down. At the same time, price was putting in higher highs and trending up. Once the divergence ended, priced caved down. Money invest between 2013 and 2014 was absolutely dead until 2018, and 2019 was the first point of truly being green (of course DCA'ing over that whole time and collecting dividends would have gotten you green sooner, but the point stands).

Let's go to #2. RSI went sideways while price continued up. That was followed by #3, a move down in price, a brief reprieve, and then another divergence where price went sideways and RSI went down. Then the big drop.

#4 was brief but shows what POSITIVE divergence might look like. RSI made a lower low while while price made a higher low. That led to a significant jump in price.

#5 shows another positive divergence. Price made a lower low while RSI made a higher low. What followed was a bottoming structure and reversal into a new price uptrend.

We are now in only the 3rd major instance of negative divergence in the stock's history. Price is making higher highs while RSI is doing the same thing it did in 2013 and 2014. This thing might make a new high. Might not. But I can tell you exactly what's coming when its done. And it's not going to be a small move and it's not going to be a short duration. Buckle up.

Can you time divergences? The answer is unfortunately, "maybe, but usually not". Go back to 2013-2014 and I can spot at least two instances where logic said a major drop was imminent. It just kept recovering while the dips got bought. But there was a clue in RSI toward the end of 2013 when it made a slightly lower high than its previous hump. Still, it very could have been bought again. Therefore, while this strategy tells you exactly WHAT to expect, it doesn't really give any clear confirmation until its too late of WHEN to expect it. That's why my strategy is that if I spot a major negative divergence, I likely have a fairly tight trailing stop, and once I'm out, I stay out. If I spot a major positive divergence, I might buy. But just as negative divergence can keep price stubborn for a VERY long time, positive divergence can continue to expand as price dips further and further. It's really not great at telling you that its safe to buy, just that the time to buy is coming. The good news is, a very long positive divergence setup is a clue that a SIZEABLE uptrend is coming at some point. And you don't have to time the bottom to make a ton of money. So you can wait for other indicators to give signs that a bottom might be in and use R/R strategies like I've brough here multiple times to have defined stops ONCE a potential bottom is in place.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:55a, 9/21/24
So let's look at one this board is invested in to see if there's any clues.. POWL



Yup, not good for the future. Could it see a new high? Sure can. Can it see multiple new highs? Sure can. Is a significant selloff brewing? Sure is. When? I wouldn't want to be in it too long after that green price trendline gets hit.

Here's a bonus - NVDA



Significant negative divergence formed all year and price reacted downward. But since August 5th, there's actually "potential" positive divergence forming. Before you get too bullish, even if it works out, it's likely to turn into more negative divergence unless RSI can get back significantly over 85 with price at significant new highs. Too many potentials and IMO, much more risk than opportunity past October. So if I'm not already in, I don't trust it and I keep my money safe, especially since we need historical extreme levels of sustained RSI, even for NVDA, to break the negative divergence that is likely to form.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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El_duderino
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 6:05a, 9/21/24
What would you look for or expect if it forms a hidden bullish divergence in an uptrend, but then that new high forms a standard bearish divergence? SPY down below: green is bearish and yellow is hidden bullish. Hidden bullish occurred and then a push to new ATH happened this past week. While we hit ATH, it then formed a strong bearish divergence when going from 7/15 ATH to now.

I'd think that the new ATH is confirmation of hidden bullish and now we have set a strong bearish divergence setting up expectations of some sort of pullback/downtrend.

Timing is unknown like you said, but it set a new high 7pts higher while rsi put in a lower high at 64 vs 78 with prior ATH.

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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to El_duderino • 11:17a, 9/21/24
I think it's prudent to look for context. So I take the current trend back a tiny bit farther. Currently, SPX has already moved from one divergence that ended in July to a new one, both negative. And even the most recent history from 2021-2022 shows us a nearly exact same pattern.



And I hate always going back to 2007, mainly because people think I'm predicting complete financial meltdown when I'm merely trying to show the many parallels to economic, financial, and social sentiment patterns that today shares with that period, and the RISK, whether it ends not as bad, the same, or worse than 2007, that exists in this current market.

But this pattern of divergence both pre and post rate cut In September is a very similar to what we see today.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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ProgN
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3:14p, 9/22/24
Hey gang,

If you like to entertain guest for football games or whenever try this dip recipe. I picked it up from HEB today and it's extremely easy to make and it's incredible. I didn't use habaneros though. I did use 2 jalapeños and 1 Serrano though. It really is amazing. I used the hatch and chili lime pita chips instead of crackers. All my friends and family love it and requested the recipe. It'll be something new for your guests, which I like doing.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to ProgN • 3:19p, 9/22/24
I bet that would have made Lincoln Riley's brisket edible, but just barely.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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ProgN
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 3:31p, 9/22/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
I bet that would have made Lincoln Riley's brisket edible, but just barely.
I said it's very very good, not that it can perform miracles.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to ProgN • 3:46p, 9/22/24
ProgN said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
I bet that would have made Lincoln Riley's brisket edible, but just barely.
I said it's very very good, not that it can perform miracles.
I had to go look it up, didn't remember just how awful it was..





"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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