Here was the original thesis on SLV. As the months went on, I made a lot of trades. Many closed out for significant profits. Some didn't work. Some hedges.Heineken-Ashi said:
Saw a post on another board about SLV during the last two presidential elections. 2016 ran to nearly $20 in August from bottom of $13, or around $14 in March. 2020 ran to nearly $30 in August from just under $11 in March. We're currently not even to $22 from a 2024 bottom around $20.
$25 calls are 82 cents in September. $30 would be a 500%+ gain and $40 would be a 1700%+ gain. 30 calls would be about $2k and would net between $15k and $45k if this performs similarly.
I'm strongly considering it. Might even do 50 contracts.
Today marked the end of the original thesis.. SLV $30-$40 hoping on an August or September spike that has happened multiple times in history. It obviously hasn't come.. yet. But SLV has been relatively strong and is still setting up a potential big move.
I don't normally do this, and I'm not bragging nor am I complaining. I made some good money on September stuff. I also advised months ago to hold positions and to not do anything more than remove risk as there was plenty of time left and the thesis was still valid. Looking back, May was likely the max value of September stuff. Sucks it didn't get over $30 like we wanted. But it still finished off in a decent place and strikes $28 and lower finished in the money. I took profits multiple times along the way and averaged positions down. Added many new positions. Finally result for Sep 20 expiration in 1 of my 3 accounts is this..
Not great, but WAY BETTER than even two weeks ago. We had the equivalent of a stick save over the last two weeks.
Going forward, I have these positions. Half are already net free. In my other accounts I have the same and even have some already net free October stuff. I also have 5k shares of SLV spread through all accounts. Might add to it if we see below $27 again.
If we get some weakness in the short term, I will be adding to all positions below current basis, and might be initiating more January and even some March or April positions. I still believe we will see $30 silver and $35+ SLV.
Monday starts the clock again. Let's go silver!
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)