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Heineken-Ashi
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Texaggie7nine said:

Quick question from an absolute noob. You can ignore if it's too stupid to bother answering.

I appreciate all your enlightening posts but I can't help but wonder what it is these patterns identify. I understand they are reading tea leaves in a way but do you think the patterns being recognized are legit market forces? Or could it be that so many trained investors follow the same type of pattern identifiers that it becomes more like a self fulfilling prophecy?
Purely market sentiment. When sentiment is strongly bullish, it moves in predictable patterns starting with finding support at a major low (the bottom). Majority of participants are very bearish and looking lower, but price starts to recover. That's a Wave 1. Then it resumes selling. Fear starts to step in again. But it holds the bottom. That's the Wave 2. It then builds up again above the higher high Wave 2 bottom and Wave 1 top. Once it breaks through, you see the market start to pile in. Volume increases. The move turns very impulsive printing new high after new high. That's Wave 3. It eventually tops. Most participants are in. Some who got in near the lows take profits or sell out completely. Some late entries start to move in. There's a massive fight between bulls and bears but it eventually holds support above the Wave 1 top. That's Wave 4. That's why it can be frustrating trading correction, especially 4th waves. It's a huge tug of war. There is no reliable pattern. Only ones that are more common than others. But truly any shape can happen. And it can go sideways for quite a while. Eventually, it breaks resistance of Wave 3 top. This is when you see the majority of the retail traders pile in. When your barber is telling you to buy a certain stock. This is the exuberance phase. It can match the length of the 1st wave, it can match or exceed the length of the 3rd wave. It can also be the shortest wave and finish in truncated fashion looking like a failed rally. It can also continue to extand as exuberance becomes irrational. This is the 5th wave. And once it tops, you are likely to see a 50-61% correction. The first move down will be denial. Buy the dip. But it won't make a new high. It will hold under the top. Once that 3rd leg starts and the previous low breaks, you will see a rush to exit. You see it on earnings reports alot, and not always bad earnings. It's merely sentiment resetting.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Texaggie7nine
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jamey
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AG
That Tom Lee guy has said a few times he thinks IWM could end up as much as 50% on the year which would be Russell around 3000
EliteZags
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AG
Tom Lee's a known universal permabull but I don't mind him and the market's been backing all his talk
Heineken-Ashi
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Who bought CLOV at $0.60 and is now up 250%?

20% P/C ratio on the day. Very weak options action and very little volume on calls above $2 strike through end of year.

If you held this trash for the last 3 years, maybe hang on a little longer with hopes of getting 15-25% of your initial investment back. I hung on to 100 shares from 2021 with a goal of ride or die.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Number Monkey
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AG
Anyone else in the gold miner WTHVF? I'm down about 40% from entry several months back. Didn't expect them to do a private placement and dilute the ownership. Seems GDX has been gaining over the last few weeks, but this miner has been going down....
EnronAg
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AG
damn, murder algos kicked on with bad intentions...hope you 0dte guys played puts...wow
hedge
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Jesus what was that
Heineken-Ashi
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MOC $4B to sell. That's large.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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EnronAg
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

MOC $4B to sell. That's large.
that 2:59 candle gonna be wild
Heineken-Ashi
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Number Monkey said:

Anyone else in the gold miner WTHVF? I'm down about 40% from entry several months back. Didn't expect them to do a private placement and dilute the ownership. Seems GDX has been gaining over the last few weeks, but this miner has been going down....
Ya, miners tend to do that when metals are in strength mode. I'm down as well. But looks like a potential double tap bottom. Hoping the rally from Q3 24 - Q2 25 pulls this one up.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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hedge
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We closing green or red?
Heineken-Ashi
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SPX hit just above the 5600 area I outlined earlier today after nice 5-waves up. This is te retracement I was looking for. Buy right now with stop at yesterdays lows and see if we cant catch the next move up. If you're stopped, no bbbbbbbbbbiggie.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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I bleed maroon
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AG
EnronAg said:

damn, murder algos kicked on with bad intentions...hope you 0dte guys played puts...wow
I rarely do 0DTE trades, but I had an order in for 561 SPY puts around noon, for 8 cents a contract. The bid was 9 cents at the time. They did not execute.

At closing, they were priced at $1.44 each. Potential 16 bagger in a day, if I bought at the bid.

Penny-wise and pound foolish?
Heineken-Ashi
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I bleed maroon said:

EnronAg said:

damn, murder algos kicked on with bad intentions...hope you 0dte guys played puts...wow
I rarely do 0DTE trades, but I had an order in for 561 SPY puts around noon, for 8 cents a contract. The bid was 9 cents at the time. They did not execute.

At closing, they were priced at $1.44 each. Potential 16 bagger in a day, if I bought at the bid.

Penny-wise and pound foolish?
It's better knowing your intuition is correct than to have made money.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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EliteZags
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AG
Heineken-Ashi
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"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Currently have about $43k exposure across all accounts in small or midcap growth funds.

All of it has been moving mostly sideways for the past few months, until this week.

Hoping it's the start of the current rally finally broadening to the rest of the market. But still think I get at least one more shot of re-entering TNA below $38.
EliteZags
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AG
not sure why I'm still diamond-handing my TNA from 36 but its only a 4 figure position, couldn't decide what to rotate it to
also holding low 5 figures in VB though
Heineken-Ashi
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EliteZags said:

not sure why I'm still diamond-handing my TNA from 36 but its only a 4 figure position, couldn't decide what to rotate it to
also holding low 5 figures in VB though
Tough call. It could perform well for a little while.

Just as devil's advocate. On Jan 5, 2000, Russell 2000 went from 474 to 606 on March 9, a 27% increase, while SPX went from 1372 to 1366 over the same timeframe, a -0.43% decrease. By March 24, Russell had sold off to 573, a 5% loss from the March 9 high and 20% total gain since Jan 5, while SPX recovered to 1550, a 13.5% gain from March 9 and 13% gain since Jan 5. By April 14, IWM had sold to 454, a 25% loss from the 606 March 9 high and 5% loss from the Jan 5 starting point when it first started to outperform SPX with "rotation". SPX finished that same day at 1339, a 13.6% drop from March 9 and 2.4% drop from the Jan 5 starting point when Russell became stronger. They then moved mostly in unison until the 2002 eventual low and bottom.

All of this to say, I still reiterate that it's not likely Russell is set for some big outperformance. If so, it will be short lived and end up in equal or worse shape as SPX when all said and done. So if you are long Russell, I strongly advise to move stops up as you go. You don't have to aggressive to the point of getting regularly stopped. But have a point where you don't lose. I would say the same for all indexes at this point.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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I'm expecting Bitcoin miners to take off in August/September. Next week I'll be likely buying HUT, as I see it going to $40. But will watch BTC closely this weekend and its still not out of the woods for a lower low. But it can put that in over the weekend.

I'm still working on which ones I think will have the highest returns. Might just invest in all of them.

MARA, CLSK, RIOT (have a position), HUT, CORZ (have a position), WULF, IREN (new short report came out and its been on a tear), CIFR, HIVE, BTDR, BITF.

Will also consider MSTR and COIN but haven't begun to dig into their charts.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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EliteZags
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AG
I have a completely unjustified loathing of MSTR solely from the old fake Youtube ads with Saylor monotonaly describing some ridiculous promotion where they'll match any amount of BTC/ETH you send to some QR code, was obvs subpar AI but you can just imagine him actually promoting something like that in the exact manner

they make a ton of $$$ but if the company just vanished tomorrow would any part of society outside of investors feel any impact
Talon2DSO
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AG
Has anyone been following BYDDF? They're a Chinese company in the AI and EV market. They look interesting
Quacked
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I took profits on Tesla last week and bought some of it


Warren B likes it, but did just sell quite a lot.
Heineken-Ashi
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TSLA needs to hold $225 for $300 to happen soon. If it can't, back to $175-$200 range becomes possible. Long-term still bullish either way, but I'd prefer $300 as it means the ensuing correction likely has higher support.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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Yall know I don't just like to throw money at things that are moving up. If I'm going into the Russell, I want to align with solid setups that have clearly defined stop levels and target areas, and good R/R.

Here's one I can get behind it. Should be self explanatory.

2:1 minimum R/R if using lowest stop. 4 or 5:1 if using red upper stop.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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hedge
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Markets gonna react to trump being shot?
flashplayer
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AG
Buy DJT now
Heineken-Ashi
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rolo said:

Markets gonna react to trump being shot?
I bought SPY calls at the bell Friday. I'm about to make a solid return or lose all the premium.

Or, in true stock market fashion, next week will be completely sideways trapping all expiring options.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
hedge
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.
hedge
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Trump is injured but alive and in good spirits. DJT going up BIGLY
EliteZags
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AG
2% on BTC past hour

what's read on live futures
Marauder Blue 6
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AG
Talon2DSO said:

Has anyone been following BYDDF? They're a Chinese company in the AI and EV market. They look interesting


What is interesting about it?
Talon2DSO
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AG
Marauder Blue 6 said:

Talon2DSO said:

Has anyone been following BYDDF? They're a Chinese company in the AI and EV market. They look interesting


What is interesting about it?


They're selling more EVs than Tesla
gggmann
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AG
Talon2DSO said:

Marauder Blue 6 said:

Talon2DSO said:

Has anyone been following BYDDF? They're a Chinese company in the AI and EV market. They look interesting


What is interesting about it?


They're selling more EVs than Tesla


Seen quite a few BYD's in Thailand this summer and just a few Teslas.

Also, NIO is another Chinese EV company to watch.
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