EngrAg14 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Model T on NFLX as it stands now is $339 fyi

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I feel like this is similar to NVDA hit that's not gonna rebound back up quickly.
Since there will be talk of Amazon/Disney/Hulu taking subs from NFLX same as AMD taking share from NVDA.
Don't you agree?

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Maybe trend won't rebound but statistically that Model T will fill on range even if its the upper portion.

Model T? I think you talked about this in the CC a few months ago. Could you give me a quick lesson on this again. If you get a chance.

TRNX action AM, may see another jump tomorrow or Friday.

It's just referring to a 50% reversion to the mean. Netflix dropped from $360 to $320 right now, so $340 is the target.

The "Model T" is just an easy way to visualize or think of what we expect to see happen in the near term for the stock price. The top of the "T" is the drop/gain on a large movement, so in this case a $40/share drop after hours on earnings for NFLX. The line down in the "T" is the midpoint of the range of movement, or the horizontal line on a stock chart showing where the stock price will revert to.

It's basically like a gap fill, just a general rule of thumb that is surprisingly simple but accurate in describing market behavior. It's really interesting after hearing of it from OA how often you see it in all kinds of stocks very often.

Like the other poster though, I question how much longer the story can go on for Netflix before this turns into a Tesla level of doubt on the long term valuation and prospects of the company. Subscriber growth is the only thing people care about, a miss of 2 million is a lot.

Glad I bailed on NFLX a couple weeks ago...was only a small profit but I was worried on the Disney + and other things

Dang, I mentioned shorting NFLX last week based on the chart pattern. Didn't because puts were too expensive. What a costly mistake. Ugh.

eBay has been looking really nice here and good earnings. Them and Etsy are going to keep taking some good portions of online sales growth.

Ok my brethren, CHK is dirt cheap. How about some of you big cigars start snatching up this jewel (rough as it may be) and get some serious upward mobility started. Now, don't feel like it's a huge rush, but I'd sure hate for this ONCE in a lifetime opportunity to pass you by.

Thanks in advance.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Found the CHK employee with stock grants.

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What, give up this fabulous State government money for some high $$ oilfield job? I did it the opposite way.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Found the CHK employee with stock grants.

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No kidding.

NFLX could have a rough morning. Not only did they whiff on the new subs, but they LOST 300k US viewers vs a est. 200k gain. Could get ugly today especially knowing that Morgan Stanley projects they'll need $22B annually for their content by 2024.

Nu Skin (NUS) is on my radar this morning. Majorly oversold (I think) on a guidance adjustment due to China. Was over $88 dollars about a year ago.

There are a lot of companies that have **** I don't buy or believe in, but if they can make me money, don't care. A 35 y/o company with a dividend; not too concerned

There's a sucker for every salesman and there are plenty of suckers buying their crap.

So who would actually buy nflx today? I can't find anyone who has a positive outlook. I guess it'll just be people averaging down and hoping it fills the gap at some point?

foleyt said:

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So who would actually buy nflx today? I can't find anyone who has a positive outlook. I guess it'll just be people averaging down and hoping it fills the gap at some point?

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Thing is NFLX hasn't started using the information they've collected similar to FB.
Once they can figure out how to utilize/monetize that data, then they're golden.
Long term hold I like them, but immediate gain I think will be minimal.

I really think NFLX's biggest point is to sell to pizza companies/delivery companies to bombard people with coupons, ads, text etc like an hour or two before a regular binge session when people are more likely to say no to cooking and just buy a pizza and watch Netflix.

But there are lots of targeted ad/data companies that don't have to spend billions on original content production - I just don't see nflx adding that much value from that standpoint

oldarmy1 said:

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So right now I'm expecting either no gap fill or a gap fill 2981 with reversal, although that move to fill gap on any momentum could take S&P to 2970's.

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Ok. Need the reversal now. Gap is filled.

oldarmy1 said:

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JD calls if it sees below $30.20

TWTR calls if it sees below $37.50

GILD below $63 calls

Obviously I'm giving these because markets currently look like we're going for a consolidation fill. What did we say last week? 3-4 days on that trend move. Welp it appears to be over here on day 5

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TWTR below $37.50

JD getting close to the $30.20

Bought some weekly RTN on the downward movement. Would love a reversal...

jmcfar_98 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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So right now I'm expecting either no gap fill or a gap fill 2981 with reversal, although that move to fill gap on any momentum could take S&P to 2970's.

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Ok. Need the reversal now. Gap is filled.

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Watch closely for several retests of lows now that gap has filled and we don't want a failure on momentum because the larger gap back at 3943.90 would be staring us in the face. That would make only the August 16 outward call positions likely to have a shot.

oldarmy1 said:

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jmcfar_98 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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So right now I'm expecting either no gap fill or a gap fill 2981 with reversal, although that move to fill gap on any momentum could take S&P to 2970's.

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Ok. Need the reversal now. Gap is filled.

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Watch closely for several retests of lows now that gap has filled and we don't want a failure on momentum because the larger gap back at 3943.90 would be staring us in the face. That would make only the August 16 outward call positions likely to have a shot.

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You mean 2943.9 correct?

TWTR buyers coming in

EngrAg14 said:

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foleyt said:

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So who would actually buy nflx today? I can't find anyone who has a positive outlook. I guess it'll just be people averaging down and hoping it fills the gap at some point?

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Thing is NFLX hasn't started using the information they've collected similar to FB.
Once they can figure out how to utilize/monetize that data, then they're golden.
Long term hold I like them, but immediate gain I think will be minimal.

I really think NFLX's biggest point is to sell to pizza companies/delivery companies to bombard people with coupons, ads, text etc like an hour or two before a regular binge session when people are more likely to say no to cooking and just buy a pizza and watch Netflix.

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They have not used it for advertising but they've absolutely started using it to produce content that they know people will like. There are certainly flops here and there, but their original content for the most part really is golden. Having a steady stream of content that people come back for is in effect monetizing it.

My wife loves watching Friends and The Office because she's seen every episode 100 times and can have an episode on while cooking, or getting ready to go out, or whatever where she can just have it on in the background. She will miss these shows, but we are far from the point where we would cancel our Netflix subscription over it. The value proposition is still too good.

I hold a decent sized position, so not sure I am going to buy any more today, but I will absolutely keep holding it long term. Still so much potential with all the money they have put into original programming. Studios yanking content and starting their own streaming services was always inevitable.

I believe HBO Max is going to end up being more expensive than Netflix and Disney+ will be cheaper. There is certainly a breaking point where people will not add every new streaming outlet possible. In my opinion, Netflix will always be one of the top players for the foreseeable future.

MSFT earnings this afternoon, buying 139 calls for 7/26

oldarmy1 said:

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TRNX meeting next month includes a proxy for a reverse split if price isn't above $1 by deadline.

That's a hard "no" vote for any shareholders tired of feeding the shorts. And it's an easy short sell if it passes.

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Would you, right now?:

• Hang in there
• Sell all or a chunk and be happy it didn't go to zero
• Continue to accumulate and hope for the best (this is where I'm at right now)
• Wait some time before you make a decision

george_92 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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TRNX meeting next month includes a proxy for a reverse split if price isn't above $1 by deadline.

That's a hard "no" vote for any shareholders tired of feeding the shorts. And it's an easy short sell if it passes.

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Would you, right now?:

• Hang in there
• Sell all or a chunk and be happy it didn't go to zero
• Continue to accumulate and hope for the best (this is where I'm at right now)
• Wait some time before you make a decision

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They used the spin off as the attempt to make a reverse split go down easier. It won't work. I am sitting on all these net free shares already under 500k after the last reverse split. Here's a synopsis of one persons bullish sentiments

https://alphastocknews.com/why-taronis-technologies-trnx-stock-is-falling/827/

BREwmaster said:

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After some research tonight, I like CURLF - Curaleaf Holdings... I'm going to watch it this week and see if I can get in around $6 - appears to be the bottom....

They're the largest operational footprint in the U.S, and they continue to get larger with lots of acquisitions.

"Curaleaf has an impressive presence within the US with 47 dispensaries, 13 cultivation sites, and 11 processing sites across 12 states."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4273623-curaleaf-golden-child-u-s-cannabis-industry

I can't wait to see my wife's expression, "Honey, I'm buying pot this week"!

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CURLF impressive last 2 days

Wow, no kidding on CURLF. Hopefully you jumped in on some. I chickened out on it. 6.50 to almost $8, impressive!

BREwmaster said:

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Wow, no kidding on CURLF. Hopefully you jumped in on some. I chickened out on it. 6.50 to almost $8, impressive!

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I didn't pull the trigger either. It's on my watchlist.

CRON, ACB, TLRY and CGC are all down today but CURLF is still going up.

Markets rally off the gap fill and OKTA is gonna explode.

Thanks for the info. I'm not sitting on a huge position overall as a percentage of my overall portfolio but I enjoy well-planned risk investments. I've become much wealthier as being part of a group that has been accumulating shares of TPL over the last several years and its been quite rewarding. I'm hoping TRNX can be my second AMZN but you never know what happens.

Anyway, I've so far added to my position this am instead of fleeing and think I might take a long position here and just see how it goes. I really love this from the article you just shared:

The Bottom Line

The bottom line here is that the news of the vote on a reverse stock split has led to a frenzy among shorts. Nonetheless, with all of the positive news as of late, and the positive news that will likely come ahead associated with further record breaking production and sales, it won't be long before shorts are squeezed like a tube of tooth paste! All in all, this is an opportunity in the making!