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McInnis 03
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AG


ProgN
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Wow. If they throw a rate hike on Monday after bloviating about a May hike for the last 2 months….this will tank the market. We may be at 4000 or lower by next week if that happens.
I disagree. I think the market would rather them actually do something and then STFU. After their crushing 25 basis point increase, every fed ******* has been preaching armageddon every time they find a microphone. They went from concerned, to 50 basis points, to Bullard and the dark elves advocating 75 basis point increases. **** it, raise it Monday or STFU. The market doesn't like uncertainty, raise now or get off the pot.
irish pete ag06
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FJ43 said:

irish pete ag06 said:

I love tradingview...

but I hate so much how you can't see the volume number on the bars at the bottom.
See yellow arrow




Mine still show up for some reason


Found it! My volume box was unchecked.

It's under "Chart Settings" and "Status Line"
oldarmy1
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Hello to all!

A near bid-less market ushered in some key break points Friday. I think it important to make certain everyone understand that there are two main approaches to markets. Long-term investing or trading. Either of those two choices has numerous strategies.

Long-term involves averaging down, some dividend stocks, using put options for protection - all wrapped around the core determination of long-term opportunity for appreciation. Inclusive in these would be mass accumulation stocks. Innovation, technology, uniqueness and other variables determine whether a stock is a MA target.

Trading is much more strategic on a daily/weekly/monthly horizon. Options limit loss but require strict disciplines, and have near endless strategies (spreads, covered calls, naked puts, etc.) Trading shares requires more capital but a 20% loss threshold on large cap stocks is a good rule of thumb. Small caps can be more volatile, so if the stock immediately moves against you be disciplined with a tighter stop or trim to where you can sleep at night.

Right now, it's a trader's market. You can't point to very many stocks appreciating, much less even holding recent support levels. This is where long-term holdings gut check your portfolio. For traders it's primarily looking for technical trades, and those are going to be short-lived. My last option trade was $SPY calls followed by adding to my SPY put hedge. I tweeted the call set-up because it was technically supported, that an explosion move had set up. I suggested Friday calls on Wednesday and we got the next morning opening right at the 200DMA, so I tweeted I was exiting 100% of the calls. Once $444.71 was lost I added to May 20 puts. I didn't know that we would have a complete two day flush, but did believe that technically a flash open that fails below previous resistance broken (would be support if bulls were in control) meant that trend was decidedly downward. Someone responded to my exit tweet and said I crashed the market. If only I had that much power!

Friday, as stated from the beginning of this diatribe, was a near bid-less final 2 hours. I was contemplating closing out 50% of my puts but also expect a down early Monday, regardless of where it then goes. But then the after hours had continuation downward and at 14 minutes after the close, with one minute left in SPY options trading I closed 50%. $430 puts out to May 20 were in the money and I will either exit or roll out the remainder Monday because I don't like to hold in the money puts very long. The premiums a month out rocketed but those will come back into line so even continuation downward will reduce the ROI. Better to roll out and down to $420's while looking for a technical trade opportunity bounce IMO.

So WWR. Not much to report because nothing has materially changed. Stocks are taking a licking, so I don't allow emotions to cloud my portfolio. Ripping the band-aide off on certain stocks is not a bad discipline. If we hadn't had an unexpected spike on WWR to have a large net free holding I'm not sure I'd be looking at the drop any differently. Fortunately, WWR gave a few rounds of trading entry/exits on new shares before this current bottom fishing expedition. Still, a decision is to be made. Is it a long-term winner or not. I still believe it is, but the current market conditions are testing every long-term hold decision. I'm sticking with this one because the long-term outlook feed into the whole reason I targeted it in the first place.

Most of the entries made at the $1.80 level I sold 50% on the spikes above $2.35 and entered $2.50 covered calls on the rest. Taking $0.50 per swing trade and entering $0.35 $2.50 strike covered calls meant $1 profit on $1.80 invested or $1.45 net. So, while all recent strategies still leave me looking at net negative with the price near $1.40, I'm actually a nickel off entry. I've done nothing with core holdings and won't.

As far as long-term strategy goes, as big name stocks continue to drop the best and safest strategy is to move into big names with healthy balance sheets. AAPL, AMZN, OAKT type stuff. We could see a continuation breakdown into a bear market or find support and reverse trend. It won't be easy to know if any entries are bottomed even if markets rally a few days. This recent quick 2 day move up into a breakdown teaches everyone that.

Recognize it's a traders market. That doesn't mean you don't begin adding sidelined long-term portfolio cash into equities. But consider layering on a protective put; especially if you get a quick bounce. To your sucess!

DavysApprentice
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oldarmy1 said:

Hello to all!

A near bid-less market ushered in some key break points Friday. I think it important to make certain everyone understand that there are two main approaches to markets. Long-term investing or trading. Either of those two choices has numerous strategies.

Long-term involves averaging down, some dividend stocks, using put options for protection - all wrapped around the core determination of long-term opportunity for appreciation. Inclusive in these would be mass accumulation stocks. Innovation, technology, uniqueness and other variables determine whether a stock is a MA target.

Trading is much more strategic on a daily/weekly/monthly horizon. Options limit loss but require strict disciplines, and have near endless strategies (spreads, covered calls, naked puts, etc.) Trading shares requires more capital but a 20% loss threshold on large cap stocks is a good rule of thumb. Small caps can be more volatile, so if the stock immediately moves against you be disciplined with a tighter stop or trim to where you can sleep at night.

Right now, it's a trader's market. You can't point to very many stocks appreciating, much less even holding recent support levels. This is where long-term holdings gut check your portfolio. For traders it's primarily looking for technical trades, and those are going to be short-lived. My last option trade was $SPY calls followed by adding to my SPY put hedge. I tweeted the call set-up because it was technically supported, that an explosion move had set up. I suggested Friday calls on Wednesday and we got the next morning opening right at the 200DMA, so I tweeted I was exiting 100% of the calls. Once $444.71 was lost I added to May 20 puts. I didn't know that we would have a complete two day flush, but did believe that technically a flash open that fails below previous resistance broken (would be support if bulls were in control) meant that trend was decidedly downward. Someone responded to my exit tweet and said I crashed the market. If only I had that much power!

Friday, as stated from the beginning of this diatribe, was a near bid-less final 2 hours. I was contemplating closing out 50% of my puts but also expect a down early Monday, regardless of where it then goes. But then the after hours had continuation downward and at 14 minutes after the close, with one minute left in SPY options trading I closed 50%. $430 puts out to May 20 were in the money and I will either exit or roll out the remainder Monday because I don't like to hold in the money puts very long. The premiums a month out rocketed but those will come back into line so even continuation downward will reduce the ROI. Better to roll out and down to $420's while looking for a technical trade opportunity bounce IMO.

So WWR. Not much to report because nothing has materially changed. Stocks are taking a licking, so I don't allow emotions to cloud my portfolio. Ripping the band-aide off on certain stocks is not a bad discipline. If we hadn't had an unexpected spike on WWR to have a large net free holding I'm not sure I'd be looking at the drop any differently. Fortunately, WWR gave a few rounds of trading entry/exits on new shares before this current bottom fishing expedition. Still, a decision is to be made. Is it a long-term winner or not. I still believe it is, but the current market conditions are testing every long-term hold decision. I'm sticking with this one because the long-term outlook feed into the whole reason I targeted it in the first place.

Most of the entries made at the $1.80 level I sold 50% on the spikes above $2.35 and entered $2.50 covered calls on the rest. Taking $0.50 per swing trade and entering $0.35 $2.50 strike covered calls meant $1 profit on $1.80 invested or $1.45 net. So, while all recent strategies still leave me looking at net negative with the price near $1.40, I'm actually a nickel off entry. I've done nothing with core holdings and won't.

As far as long-term strategy goes, as big name stocks continue to drop the best and safest strategy is to move into big names with healthy balance sheets. AAPL, AMZN, OAKT type stuff. We could see a continuation breakdown into a bear market or find support and reverse trend. It won't be easy to know if any entries are bottomed even if markets rally a few days. This recent quick 2 day move up into a breakdown teaches everyone that.

Recognize it's a traders market. That doesn't mean you don't begin adding sidelined long-term portfolio cash into equities. But consider layering on a protective put; especially if you get a quick bounce. To your sucess!




A lot of great stuff here. Thanks OA!
BaylorSpineGuy
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The Godfather enters.

I was the one who accused you of tanking the market. I assumed you bought 200,000 445C. It was meant in jest but since you're right way more often than you're wrong, I assumed you bought all the options available.

Thanks for the nice summary. Curious of your opinion about where the SPY goes this year. Has been discussed quite a bit and some think it touches 300 at some point. Another trader I'm close with thinks we see 3880, but I have thought somewhere around 335-350 before a recovery.
FJ43
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oldarmy1 said:

Hello to all!

A near bid-less market ushered in some key break points Friday. I think it important to make certain everyone understand that there are two main approaches to markets. Long-term investing or trading. Either of those two choices has numerous strategies.

Long-term involves averaging down, some dividend stocks, using put options for protection - all wrapped around the core determination of long-term opportunity for appreciation. Inclusive in these would be mass accumulation stocks. Innovation, technology, uniqueness and other variables determine whether a stock is a MA target.

Trading is much more strategic on a daily/weekly/monthly horizon. Options limit loss but require strict disciplines, and have near endless strategies (spreads, covered calls, naked puts, etc.) Trading shares requires more capital but a 20% loss threshold on large cap stocks is a good rule of thumb. Small caps can be more volatile, so if the stock immediately moves against you be disciplined with a tighter stop or trim to where you can sleep at night.

Right now, it's a trader's market. You can't point to very many stocks appreciating, much less even holding recent support levels. This is where long-term holdings gut check your portfolio. For traders it's primarily looking for technical trades, and those are going to be short-lived. My last option trade was $SPY calls followed by adding to my SPY put hedge. I tweeted the call set-up because it was technically supported, that an explosion move had set up. I suggested Friday calls on Wednesday and we got the next morning opening right at the 200DMA, so I tweeted I was exiting 100% of the calls. Once $444.71 was lost I added to May 20 puts. I didn't know that we would have a complete two day flush, but did believe that technically a flash open that fails below previous resistance broken (would be support if bulls were in control) meant that trend was decidedly downward. Someone responded to my exit tweet and said I crashed the market. If only I had that much power!

Friday, as stated from the beginning of this diatribe, was a near bid-less final 2 hours. I was contemplating closing out 50% of my puts but also expect a down early Monday, regardless of where it then goes. But then the after hours had continuation downward and at 14 minutes after the close, with one minute left in SPY options trading I closed 50%. $430 puts out to May 20 were in the money and I will either exit or roll out the remainder Monday because I don't like to hold in the money puts very long. The premiums a month out rocketed but those will come back into line so even continuation downward will reduce the ROI. Better to roll out and down to $420's while looking for a technical trade opportunity bounce IMO.

So WWR. Not much to report because nothing has materially changed. Stocks are taking a licking, so I don't allow emotions to cloud my portfolio. Ripping the band-aide off on certain stocks is not a bad discipline. If we hadn't had an unexpected spike on WWR to have a large net free holding I'm not sure I'd be looking at the drop any differently. Fortunately, WWR gave a few rounds of trading entry/exits on new shares before this current bottom fishing expedition. Still, a decision is to be made. Is it a long-term winner or not. I still believe it is, but the current market conditions are testing every long-term hold decision. I'm sticking with this one because the long-term outlook feed into the whole reason I targeted it in the first place.

Most of the entries made at the $1.80 level I sold 50% on the spikes above $2.35 and entered $2.50 covered calls on the rest. Taking $0.50 per swing trade and entering $0.35 $2.50 strike covered calls meant $1 profit on $1.80 invested or $1.45 net. So, while all recent strategies still leave me looking at net negative with the price near $1.40, I'm actually a nickel off entry. I've done nothing with core holdings and won't.

As far as long-term strategy goes, as big name stocks continue to drop the best and safest strategy is to move into big names with healthy balance sheets. AAPL, AMZN, OAKT type stuff. We could see a continuation breakdown into a bear market or find support and reverse trend. It won't be easy to know if any entries are bottomed even if markets rally a few days. This recent quick 2 day move up into a breakdown teaches everyone that.

Recognize it's a traders market. That doesn't mean you don't begin adding sidelined long-term portfolio cash into equities. But consider layering on a protective put; especially if you get a quick bounce. To your sucess!



Thanks OA as always. Helps the board keep things in perspective.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Touching 300 is -40% on the year. Just saying.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Touching 300 is -40% on the year. Just saying.

I think that's good to keep in context. The 2020 crash was roughly 20% off highs and the 2018-2019 V was roughly 15% off highs. Going lower that ~3750 is going to require a larger percentage pullback than we saw for covid. I am not saying that won't happen or that Federal policies haven't created a bigger bubble, but that would be a significant number.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I think we are in a range from 4200 to 4600, plus or minus a few points.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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The entire industry is designed to go up.

Funds have to make money to have fees / AUM, same thing for advisors. So make no mistake, the market won't be allowed to dip for long.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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The fed put is probably still in effect. We are near the lower end of the range.

We touch 4050, I'm putting my whole portfolio in UPRO.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Brewmaster
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

The fed put is probably still in effect. We are near the lower end of the range.

We touch 4050, I'm putting my whole portfolio in UPRO.
runs to look up UPRO!

$30,000 Millionaire
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Overstock has a P/E of 4

Camping World has a P/E of 4 and a 10% dividend
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$30,000 Millionaire
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Triple leveraged S&P ETF. Opposite of SPXU
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$30,000 Millionaire
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$XBI near Covid lows. Biotech has to come back eventually.

You might hold through pain but I don't think it has too much more downside. The industry won't go away.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

$XBI near Covid lows. Biotech has to come back eventually.

You might hold through pain but I don't think it has too much more downside. The industry won't go away.


LABU is the 3X for this. I think if you hold your nose through pain this will handsomely reward.
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Jet Black
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Looking back at the 5 year price history, is this currently near a five year low?
Jet Black
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BREwmaster said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

The fed put is probably still in effect. We are near the lower end of the range.

We touch 4050, I'm putting my whole portfolio in UPRO.
runs to look up UPRO!


BaylorSpineGuy
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Isnt the hallmark of a recession that every sector basically gets leveled more or less?

Friday, every S&P sector was red. Bonds were red. Commodities and oil were red. Cash seems like a decent place to hide at the moment.
wanderer
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Jet Black said:

Looking back at the 5 year price history, is this currently near a five year low?

Yes but keep in mind it's a 3x leveraged fund. It experiences leverage-induced decay (math) over time.
Philip J Fry
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AG
How do you 3x leverage an index?
wanderer
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I think indexes are what most leveraged funds are based on.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Options. The fund is basically trading options in that ETF for you.
Philip J Fry
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Doh. That makes sense.
FJ43
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Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Brewmaster
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AG
did that right after close Friday, literally only bought 1 though.
Brewmaster
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Triple leveraged S&P ETF. Opposite of SPXU
ah ha! you like UPRO better than SPXL? that is the one I'm familiar with.
Charismatic Megafauna
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I was trying to figure out what caused that pullback in aug 2011...oh, the fed stopped buying for a minute.



But the recovery was because we got over it and moved forward with real economic growth, right?



Nope. They started buying again

Let's hope the special session Monday is to open up the ol checkbook.
FJ43
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Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

$30,000 Millionaire
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BREwmaster said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Triple leveraged S&P ETF. Opposite of SPXU
ah ha! you like UPRO better than SPXL? that is the one I'm familiar with.


Just the one I buy. Same stuff.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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These are SPX levels that I think are key and are going to matter. These are not all levels, but I think they're inflection levels that can / will evoke a reaction

downside:
  • 4245
  • 4220
  • 4160
  • 4110
  • 4045
  • 3680

upside:
  • 4305
  • 4385
  • 4436
  • 4510
  • 4800
  • 4960
  • 5500
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$30,000 Millionaire
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Remember that SPY channel I drew a while back?

I think there are very high odds of a back test of that channel line before a reversal back down or a false breakdown. You have to be open to both.



You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Philip J Fry
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AG
What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq? Just looking at the 1Y and 5Y MACDs indicates we have a long way down left to go.
$30,000 Millionaire
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If you look at that channel intraday, it offered zero support, but look at the backtest of it. Really interesting and no volume spike of any kind. Like OA said, bidless distribution.

What I think is also interesting is the volume on close! It was comparable with last Thursday's OPEX. I don't think it was capitulation, but maybe.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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