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aggiemetal
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AG
quote:
How long have you been selling naked puts ?

I've traded for 4, and went to selling premium just about 2.5 years ago (basically I started when I finally became profitable ).

After Brexit (an event traders who've been around for decades say is about the biggest overnight move they've seen since the '87 Crash), which again I went into dead wrong and pretty large, and still came out like a champ a few days later, I did amend my strategy to working futures against it to balance deltas and save initial heartburn from the get go when we have decent sized moves.

I entered that morning next morning pretty much flat, amazing considering I carried 500+ Spy weighted deltas into that insane overnight move. But I did so by scalping futures against the position all night playing from behind, then once the day got going and I sold juiced of puts (b/c ramped up volatility) until my hands bled. (Have to take advantage of that opportunity when it strikes.) Since then, I try and keep the weighted deltas pretty neutral. I pick my spots when to remove that hedge and I try and scalp it raising basis so I'm covered "for free" up to a certain level I mark on my chart. My goal with the future hedge isn't too make money (though I welcome any extra cash it provides ), I have no edge with that it's just a 50/50 from entry like a stock, my edge is in the sold puts, the 95% Prob OTM i typically choose, theta decay and volatility crush, any price move in my favor when I'm actually on the right side of direction is just gravy.
JP76
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quote:
quote:
How long have you been selling naked puts ?

I've traded for 4, and went to selling premium just about 2.5 years ago (basically I started when I finally became profitable ).


After Brexit (an event traders who've been around for decades say is about the biggest overnight move they've seen since the '87 Crash), which again I went into dead wrong and pretty large, and still came out like a champ a few days later, I did amend my strategy to working futures against it to balance deltas and save initial heartburn from the get go when we have decent sized moves.

I entered that morning next morning pretty much flat, amazing considering I carried 500+ Spy weighted deltas into that insane overnight move. But I did so by scalping futures against the position all night playing from behind, then once the day got going and I sold juiced of puts (b/c ramped up volatility) until my hands bled. (Have to take advantage of that opportunity when it strikes.) Since then, I try and keep the weighted deltas pretty neutral. I pick my spots when to remove that hedge and I try and scalp it raising basis so I'm covered "for free" up to a certain level I mark on my chart. My goal with the future hedge isn't too make money (though I welcome any extra cash it provides ), I have no edge with that it's just a 50/50 from entry like a stock, my edge is in the sold puts, the 95% Prob OTM i typically choose, theta decay and volatility crush, any price move in my favor when I'm actually on the right side of direction is just gravy.


How far OTM do you usually sell ?

What strikes are you currently holding ?


aggiemetal
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AG
How far OTM do you usually sell ?


What strikes are you currently holding ?
======

I always shoot for 95%+ OTM which is about two standard deviations away from current price ...i like doing it in products that give a lot of premium far out with a lot of room for error...before I moved to primarily /ES I started and did quite well with AMZN strangles, I still like it but it's too capital intensive and its moved really insanely relative to what used to be a pretty predictable norm ---if I had a huge account I'd still be in it a lot but /ES is a way more efficient product for premium sellers and as noted above it offers the flexibility of trading or adjusting around the clock when things get screwy

The 1820's and 1830's 42 days out though I've closed most out as of today....even though I'm short some puts on the table I've got more cash on the sidelines than normal after today and I'd really prefer another big liquidation break and accompanying I/c vol for optimal reloading of the guns but I'll see what next week gives me and load guns one way or another regardless even if it means just building the new position small and unhedged

I also prefer 45 days out ...tastytrade research shows that to be about the sweet spot in the theta decay and in my experience it works quite well ---with usually 21 days max (usually never close to that long) until you are able to take off a 50% winner (which repeating my other posts if I hit that mark I take the winner off mechanically there without fail and look to move out to the next 45days 95% OTM if I like the premium there)

I will however add some earlier weeks expiration to that if volatility is really juiced, like this past week, and I can go really far out for good premium (and less time exposure)
oldarmy1
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Reviewing the weekend data there is not much to go on, which is disappointing coming off a quad-witching event. Buy/Sell 5k+ lots were nearly split. Maybe that means there is no conviction on either side of the bull/bear battle. That might result in sideways action even through Fed action into election clarity.

The two posted trades GILD and CLF are following the market higher, along with an expected energy sector bounce.

Happy trading!
Spaceship
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AG
oldarmy1 - What are your current thoughts on KMI? Thanks!
oldarmy1
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oldarmy1 - What are your current thoughts on KMI? Thanks!
Resistance short term just shy of $23 but it is basing support for a long term move upward. Most likely a slow stair step higher after the initial breakout we traded. I wouldn't trade options on it due to it being a slow steady riser. I WOULD be a covered call seller after each new breakout hits resistance. I have $24 covered calls expiring Friday. It would be ideal to see it break $23 so I can buy the covered calls back at around a 60% decay.
khkman22
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quote:
quote:
oldarmy1 - What are your current thoughts on KMI? Thanks!
Resistance short term just shy of $23 but it is basing support for a long term move upward. Most likely a slow stair step higher after the initial breakout we traded. I wouldn't trade options on it due to it being a slow steady riser. I WOULD be a covered call seller after each new breakout hits resistance. I have $24 covered calls expiring Friday. It would be ideal to see it break $23 so I can buy the covered calls back at around a 60% decay.
It closed at $21.90 today. Do you really think you have risk of it getting called at $24 by Friday? I'm not sure I understand the want for it to break $23 before Friday to buy the calls back.
oldarmy1
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If/then scenario. If a stock breaks upper resistance band, in KMI'S case $23 then it hitting $24+ will come quick. So it depends on what day it breaks. There was more juice on calls after last breakout giving a decent covered call premium. With the sideways action most of that has settled. I'd look at value and time should it break $23.

On markets in general, we saw the same top selling occuring ahead of the fed. Tbe midline channel has been abused by short sellers too. We're green premarket again so watch mid-channel for breakout or sell off signal.
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oldarmy1
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Following up on khk's question, why not buy it back now? It has to be cheaper now than it would be if KMI gets to 23+.
If the ask comes to under a dime I would.

GILD on the move!

oldarmy1
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GILD $80 options +115% on the breakout move. Make that +121%
Trade closed at multiple fill points once it broke $1. $1.13 x $1.17 currently.
oldarmy1
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So on GILD. It is one of my net free holdings and I'll trade options them on set ups like described. The explosion upward usually gives options a 100% plus move which I take off the table. I'll also have options out 3 weeks at the gap fill potential. Understand the markets will determine that $86 area gap getting filled. We break out and run and it will happen. We go sideways or sell off then look at the waves on GILD.

oldarmy1
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One of you oil guru's talk to me about ATW. Crushed on rig delays and obvious energy sector woes. Had a huge volume support bottom under $6 with increased daily average volume. After bounce it has come back into 6's and has a hammer bottom technical today.

Worth investigating further or is there an easy answer yea or nay on taking a position?
pfo
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One of you oil guru's talk to me about ATW. Crushed on rig delays and obvious energy sector woes. Had a huge volume support bottom under $6 with increased daily average volume. After bounce it has come back into 6's and has a hammer bottom technical today.

Worth investigating further or is there an easy answer yea or nay on taking a position?


Tread very carefully on ATW. The Saudi's are manipulating the oil market with hollow rhetoric about cutting production without any intention of cutting production. Saudi needs more money to support their welfare state and cannot afford to cut production so they are using false rhetoric to prop up prices.
oldarmy1
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Thx..so you are thinking oil prices have a ways to go downward?
pfo
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quote:
Thx..so you are thinking oil prices have a ways to go downward?


Our business has undergone 20 year bust cycles ever since Colonel Drake discovered oil in the ground in the late 1700's. Some say "It's different this time because horizontal wells deplete so quickly" but I'm betting it's not going to be very different this time in the oil market. We know where plenty of oil is and we know exactly how to get it out. Prices don't esculate materially until we don't know where the oil is or we can't get it out.

The ocean drillers are the very top of the sword. I am not brave enough, at this point in the cycle to own any of them. Randy, you are in the right segment of the oil and gas business in KMI. I also own a huge position in EPD.
oldarmy1
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Well here we go again. Sellers came in selling the mid-channel. When the Fed announces, whichever reaction direction the markets take, take the other direction.
GigemCO2008
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OldArmy, I work for one of their competitors and all I can say is the market is still extremely weak for contracts.
The value of offshore drillers has always been their backlog (contracts). These used to be seen as something that would not be cancelled, but over the past 2 years, it has been cheaper for Operators(Shell, ConocoPhillips) to cancel the the contract and pay 500 million in terminations fees than actually drill wells.

The drillship only represents about 50% of the actual true day rate. Our contract is about 500k/day, but true spread costs (total day rate for all services: boats, helicopters, fuel, Schlumberger, Halliburton services) runs the cost up to around 1.1 mil/day.

I have found no discernible reason as to why our stock goes up/down besides some obvious short squeezes and how the price of oil moves up/down.
Even when Atwd/ other deep water drillers report better earnings than the street, the stock still moves in down.

Until contracts start being awarded, there is still so much uncertainty as to where the market will go.

The only glimmer is if the Pemex lease bidding goes well in December and there is interest by the Triad (I think Exxon and 2 others), you may see some contract activity pick up.

Shale drilling on the other hand only runs about 40-60k day and the well can be drilled in 30 days. These can also be brought online much quicker for production.

Average Gulf of Mexico wells take 90-150 days, and any oil found most likely reach the shores until 3-10 yrs later.

I really wish the outlook was better, but unfortunately there hasn't been any good news in a while.

CVX has found a lot of oil over the past 2 years, but there is still a lot of work to be done to do all the SSEA tie backs to a production facility.
pfo
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Oldarmy1, and anyone good with technical analysis could you please give me insight into entry price points on Amazon (AMZN)?

I am probably the last one to buy this stock but I have decided I am going to buy it because it's obvious even to an old fashion hard head like me that Amazon is going to sell everything to everybody in the world one day and I am going to hold it and add to it until I die.
oldarmy1
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Ah AMZN. One of my best planted stocks. I call it the 5Mil mover because any time it trades over 5Mil it either starts or stops a larger trend move. Check it out - like clockwork. It's one of a handful of stocks that I would say buy it and hope it fills lower gaps so you can buy more. The last big gap is all the way down at $626 during the market selloff late last year. Otherwise there is a smaller gap just above $700. Not sure you can get to $626 but $700 wouldn't be crazy with a decent correction.

oldarmy1
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Thanks PFO and GigemCo

I won't waste any time studying the sector based on the feedback. Much appreciated!
pfo
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Thank you very much oldarmy. I plan on making my first purchase of half a position at 700 with a the hope it falls to 626 to add to a full position.
oldarmy1
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AG
Did no one take GILD options except Jeff?
claym711
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BOJ tonight. Fed tomorrow. Get ready for fireworks!
pfo
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quote:
Did no one take GILD options except Jeff?


I own a full position in GILD.
oldarmy1
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AG
CLF options over 100% and taking them off the table.
GILD was taken off the table yesterday on the 100%+ move. Now waiting for Fed
oldarmy1
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quote:
One of you oil guru's talk to me about ATW. Crushed on rig delays and obvious energy sector woes. Had a huge volume support bottom under $6 with increased daily average volume. After bounce it has come back into 6's and has a hammer bottom technical today.

Worth investigating further or is there an easy answer yea or nay on taking a position?
ATW $7 options jumped sharply. I avoided and will avoid based on the appreciated feedback. Anyways, another example that even dog stocks can make you some money on pure technical trades. Main takeaway is learning that yesterday would have been the easy option entry for locking in some quick gains and protecting an underlying long position - had one been taken.
3rd and 2
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What do you think of NFLX old army? Is it destined for a big(ger) sell off?
oldarmy1
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What do you think of NFLX old army? Is it destined for a big(ger) sell off?
Has that matza ball gap down there at $88. And when you look at NFLX historicals it loves to fill the gaps. I do think it would take the markets retesting lows to get there. People selling $100 calls are scoring.
oldarmy1
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Oh surprise, markets lost all the gains.
Joseph Parrish
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quote:
Oh surprise, markets lost all the gains.
Oil and Gas seems to have held onto it's gains today.
pfo
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So Fed leaves rates unchanged. Oldarmy's prediction of no rate hike until Hillary is a lock to win holds.

What next guys?
oldarmy1
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No rate hike with guidance that December will have hike. 3 of the 7 wanted the hike to occur today, so 1 vote short of a hike. Also 2017 guidance for GDP lowered to 1.1%.

Markets bounced to +77 from +23 and are digesting in the +50's. And as I finish typing the markets back to +77 resistance.
pfo
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FOMC not forecasting inflation of 2% until 2018! Anybody here think the Fed can forecast the economy 2 months out much less 3 years out.

I just don't see how the growth in our economy accelerates until taxes and regulations are lowered.
3rd and 2
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I read online that a company called M Science says that Netflix is going to have 0 net subscriber growth for the quarter. Netflix has said they're going to have 350,000+ net subscriber growth. I've tried looking up who these guys are and can't find much about their legitimacy or accuracy. Are they a legitimate group or a bunch of yahoos?
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