Was lucky enough to scalp a AVGP 7/16 $490 put this morning. Otherwise like treading water...waiting for breakdown.....
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Last: 6 hrs ago by $30,000 Millionaire
IWM at -3 ATR I believe...it's entirely possible I charted it wrong though.
It appears that when it touches -3 over the past 6 months it bounces back rather quickly, like within a day or two. I'm considering opening a 220C position tomorrow, particularly if it opens below daily S1. Kind of a fade the open play coupled with a reversion play.
Any thoughts?
It appears that when it touches -3 over the past 6 months it bounces back rather quickly, like within a day or two. I'm considering opening a 220C position tomorrow, particularly if it opens below daily S1. Kind of a fade the open play coupled with a reversion play.
Any thoughts?
I show it at -0.5 ATR on the year weekly, -2 ATR on the daily (year and six month lookbacks). 211.90 would be the 23.6% on the fibonaccis over the past year. 216.18 for the six month.Cookiemonster64 said:
IWM at -3 ATR I believe...it's entirely possible I charted it wrong though.
It appears that when it touches -3 over the past 6 months it bounces back rather quickly, like within a day or two. I'm considering opening a 220C position tomorrow, particularly if it opens below daily S1. Kind of a fade the open play coupled with a reversion play.
Any thoughts?
I think we still have further to go down.
Wondering what to expect from small caps once the macro market begins to correct.....I assume it's only further down...
My guess is they will start down. But a lot of them don't have a lot of room to give without the technicals throwing off massive buy signals. I think once profits start to rotate from the S&P into cash there will be a lot of small cap positions re-entered.Fairfield_Ag said:
Wondering what to expect from small caps once the macro market begins to correct.....I assume it's only further down...
Make or break time. Closed right at the 150dSMA and bottom of channel. -2ATR on daily.
Here's some interesting update from my recent experience:
I had a dream about 3 wks ago that BeachBody was going to go to $5.50. No data to back this up at all. Just a dream. I fell for the SPAC mania back in the spring and am holding a bag of this crap at $14.00. Anyway, I've held the stock all this time in hope it would go up and when I had this dream, BODY had just IPO'd and was trading around $12.50 or so.
I asked my surgical assistant if I should buy puts on BODY, and she said, "oh yes! I believe in dreams!". That was all the motivation I needed. So I decided to buy July 7.5 puts at 10 cents each. I bought 75 contracts for $750.
I was looking like an idiot at the time cause it was getting tons of Twitter mania but lo and behold.it's like the most shorted stock on the NYSE. Fast forward 2 wks and the stock is under $8.10. I'm less than 70 cents from the break even point!!
The reality is that I should've bought August calls or a higher strike price but I'm learning. Would not have been able to get as many though. Wishing I had bought a $10P though cause they were only like 30-40 cents at the time. The other thing to learn is don't invest based on a silly dream.
Thanks for all you guys do on here ans thanks for letting a Bear roam on your message boards.
I had a dream about 3 wks ago that BeachBody was going to go to $5.50. No data to back this up at all. Just a dream. I fell for the SPAC mania back in the spring and am holding a bag of this crap at $14.00. Anyway, I've held the stock all this time in hope it would go up and when I had this dream, BODY had just IPO'd and was trading around $12.50 or so.
I asked my surgical assistant if I should buy puts on BODY, and she said, "oh yes! I believe in dreams!". That was all the motivation I needed. So I decided to buy July 7.5 puts at 10 cents each. I bought 75 contracts for $750.
I was looking like an idiot at the time cause it was getting tons of Twitter mania but lo and behold.it's like the most shorted stock on the NYSE. Fast forward 2 wks and the stock is under $8.10. I'm less than 70 cents from the break even point!!
The reality is that I should've bought August calls or a higher strike price but I'm learning. Would not have been able to get as many though. Wishing I had bought a $10P though cause they were only like 30-40 cents at the time. The other thing to learn is don't invest based on a silly dream.
Thanks for all you guys do on here ans thanks for letting a Bear roam on your message boards.
Oops...thanks Ag....I also have it at -2 on the daily....other than that 1 "minor" detail the post stands...hahaha
It has bounced off that -2 typically the past 6 months...obviously doesn't mean it will in the future though. Something to watch I suppose instead of actually working.
It has bounced off that -2 typically the past 6 months...obviously doesn't mean it will in the future though. Something to watch I suppose instead of actually working.
So, so, so many of recent trades move well then right into failure.austinAG90 said:
Was lucky enough to scalp a AVGP 7/16 $490 put this morning. Otherwise like treading water...waiting for breakdown.....
Anyone buying amc puts?
I guess there was something good in the $CIDM call.
Already did. I don't see support until down at $20. $30.81 or so is the 200 DEMA. Will watch there for a break one way or the other.Jet Black said:
Anyone buying amc puts?
They had a great call. Significant increase in revenue Q/Q. Retired like 75% of their debt, bunch of other good stuff too.tlepoC said:
I guess there was something good in the $CIDM call.
AG 2000' said:Already did. I don't see support until down at $20. $30.81 or so is the 200 DEMA. Will watch there for a break one way or the other.Jet Black said:
Anyone buying amc puts?
Do you mind if I ask which ones?
I've been watching IWM/RTY for awhile as it keeps eating my lunch.Thundergon said:
Make or break time. Closed right at the 150dSMA and bottom of channel. -2ATR on daily.
Today when I pulled out to the weekly chart (always take a step back on your time frame, it opens doors) I noticed that RTY hasn't hit the lower bollinger band since Feb 2020 on the weekly.....It's about 20 pts from doing it now.....2177 (216.54 or so on IWM) on the RTY is when I'll be looking for reversal......
P.S. Also on the weekly chart, that sucker squeezed as tight as anything you'll ever see, purple dots EVERYWHERE (TTM_SqueezePro) and when it goes, it'll be a MOVE.
I'm in the 8/20 $30 and $35s.Jet Black said:AG 2000' said:Already did. I don't see support until down at $20. $30.81 or so is the 200 DEMA. Will watch there for a break one way or the other.Jet Black said:
Anyone buying amc puts?
Do you mind if I ask which ones?
Got the 35s at start of the week when it was up at $44, added $30s yesterday.
McInnis 03 said:I've been watching IWM/RTY for awhile as it keeps eating my lunch.Thundergon said:
Make or break time. Closed right at the 150dSMA and bottom of channel. -2ATR on daily.
Today when I pulled out to the weekly chart (always take a step back on your time frame, it opens doors) I noticed that RTY hasn't hit the lower bollinger band since Feb 2020 on the weekly.....It's about 20 pts from doing it now.....2177 on the RTY is when I'll be looking for reversal......
P.S. Also on the weekly chart, that sucker squeezed as tight as anything you'll ever see, purple dots EVERYWHERE (TTM_SqueezePro) and when it goes, it'll be a MOVE.
AG 2000' said:I'm in the 8/20 $30 and $35s.Jet Black said:AG 2000' said:Already did. I don't see support until down at $20. $30.81 or so is the 200 DEMA. Will watch there for a break one way or the other.Jet Black said:
Anyone buying amc puts?
Do you mind if I ask which ones?
Got the 35s at start of the week when it was up at $44, added $30s yesterday.
I'm also in the Aug 35s.
If you guys were gonna buy AMC puts tomorrow what would you look at?
When OPEC was at a stalemate and negotiations broke down, oil dropped.
Now that OPEC has come to an agreement, oil dropped.
Good Lord I'm bad at the stock market. LOL
Now that OPEC has come to an agreement, oil dropped.
Good Lord I'm bad at the stock market. LOL
Kind of a crowded chart, but I think looking at the daily and weekly in the IWM is good.
This thing has been basing for a long time and it's trading sideways between -2 and+2 ATR. If the sideways trends continue, it's probably going to go up next. Could be short covering, but don't presume that they aren't covering their shorts on spikes.
If it's going to go down, it will likely first return to -1 ATR or the mean before selling off again.
I will say that SPX/NDX cannot keep going up if small caps / dow keep going down.
This thing has been basing for a long time and it's trading sideways between -2 and+2 ATR. If the sideways trends continue, it's probably going to go up next. Could be short covering, but don't presume that they aren't covering their shorts on spikes.
If it's going to go down, it will likely first return to -1 ATR or the mean before selling off again.
I will say that SPX/NDX cannot keep going up if small caps / dow keep going down.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
maybe 20 if that's the next support. I've seen that number a couple times
I'm going to grab some 25s tomorrow if the premium hasn't increased again. I've got 20.56, 17.42 and 14.58 as next support levels.Jet Black said:
If you guys were gonna buy AMC puts tomorrow what would you look at?
August?
sts7049 said:
maybe 20 if that's the next support. I've seen that number a couple times
I could absolutely see it going to $20 and it might not take very long.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Kind of a crowded chart, but I think looking at the daily and weekly in the IWM is good.
This thing has been basing for a long time and it's trading sideways between -2 and+2 ATR. If the sideways trends continue, it's probably going to go up next. Could be short covering, but don't presume that they aren't covering their shorts on spikes.
If it's going to go down, it will likely first return to -1 ATR or the mean before selling off again.
I will say that SPX/NDX cannot keep going up if small caps / dow keep going down.
I too think the tell will be when spx /ndx fall it'll rotate into the value that is iwm
8/20Jet Black said:
August?
I'm thinking SNDL might be ripe for a nice play again down in the low 80s. Particularly if we see a rotation into small caps.
Material divergences starting to happen.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$SNDL this is a solid place to take a long from, but understand that if the rest of the market sells off, this will too.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$IDRA - nothing to do here
I may buy some shares down here and sell November 1C. Selling November 1P also interesting. Entry at $0.80
I may buy some shares down here and sell November 1C. Selling November 1P also interesting. Entry at $0.80
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$ENG also hurrying up and waiting.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$ELOX - this looks terrible, as good of a place to buy as any.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$RCON - close above 200 SMA would be nice.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire said:
Material divergences starting to happen.
Ok none of those worked. Why are small caps melting while large caps are going up every week? Fed buying?
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