What do you guys think about this?

Morning Traders!

Your morning snapshot....



Trying to be green early to start.

Not much if any trading for me the next few days which is probably good. Time for a little family road trip through Kentucky and enjoy what matters most.....family.

If I could while I am traveling I would part the red sea of stocks to the promise land.



Trade wisely!

Have a good trip and enjoy your time with family.

Redler posted this on one of his tweets. One of the cleaner graphics of bullish and bearish patterns.

Thought some of y'all might like to have it handy.

Thought this was funny.

90% of all traders fail, except on the FinTwitter where 90% of all traders are Highly Profitable (sometimes even claiming to work for Top Hedge Funds) and for a small monthly fee they will gladly teach you all their secrets because they want to "help the community" pic.twitter.com/vORB087ET0

— GuruLeaks (@Guruleaks1) July 15, 2021

Safe journey brother

I am, thank you

Thursday Macros

10 Years Soar to 1.309 Overnight...as Algos Regain Upperhand from Macro Bears

Treasuries soared to a high of 1.309 overnight as the algo driven traders have gained the upper hand over the Macro, fundamentally based, bears... It is all about flows and dynamics... If 7.3% YOY PPI and 5.4% YOY CPI can't get the Fed hierarchy to blink, then we do not see what numbers could get the Fed to blink... That is why both John Authers and Mohamed El-Erian, both wrote stories overnight about policy mistakes...with opposite views.. Authers was titled "Bonds are predicting another Hawkish Fed Mistake" while El-Erian wrote "Fed Risks a Policy Mistake or Market Accident"

Catalyst yesterday were the early morning comments from Powell that the Fed was not going to taper anytime soon and the economy still needed significant stimulus from the Fed... This took the 10 year from 1.41 to 1.36 ish...and overnight to 1.31 by Asia and London...as the flow geeks, or algos, pushed further... Some significant buys in 10 year futures overnight, as the open interest in 10 year futures fell by 53000 contracts Tuesday, approximately 5 billion... The number of 10 year futures outstanding has shrunk by over 266,000 contracts since the last Fed meeting... This bodes well for the bulls as the amount of calls written at both the 133-16 and 134 level of 10 years futures remains significant... Market currently looks like the CTA's will add another leg to their longs if TYU closes above 134-02.

Powell and the Fed... Powell has totally ignored the higher inflation numbers and continues to invoke the poorly defined term of transitory.. Some of our more cynical readers, including our senior DC based friends, think that Powell was interviewing for his reappointment yesterday... We are not that cynical and believe that Powell is convinced by the Fed staff that he and Williams are correct... They believe that inflation will come down, but question is when? 3 months or 3 years?... Our view is Powell is being misled by staff, similar to when he was misled the at the end of 2018 and had to reverse in a famous talk with Bernanke and Yellen at this side ,in January 2019... Powell won't be the first or the last to be the goat...Greenspan had his "god like" title reversed after his term as he kept rates too low for too long... Powell will ultimately be viewed as doing the same...

Markets...at this rate the negative soothsayers are going to try to make another move to 1.25 10 years and possibly try to take it out... The next big news is the Fed meeting on July 28 with Jackson Hole after that... So there is room to move... Clearly the Fed's rationale has the global Covid lockdowns going for it, and weakness in parts of the southwest... Does not matter what our year end predictions are for rates, we get marked daily. But a 4 trillion stimulus bill is moving forward, even with the dysfunction of DC... And inflation will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future ,so bull flattening may continue, but we sure do not want to be long as fundamentals and inflation will catch up with bonds...

Rates...Since the last Fed meeting a colleague points out to us that 1 and 5 year tips breakevens are up 8 basis points, while 30 year yields are down 25 basis and the 5/30 curve is 24 flatter...the algos are in charge and the fundamentals are being ignored...expect another choppy day, Powell is earlier today... We don't expect much difference today from yesterday... 10 years will challenge 1.30 again...after that is 1.25 which is also the 200 day moving average ... There is a reason that 1.42 stopped the higher yields... So for now that becomes a strong support level.

Equities and corporate bonds... Still see strong demand for corporates, but the deals coming have slowed dramatically... Only deal yesterday in IG was 5.5 GS... But plenty of asset backed deals are hitting the markets... And some Muni deals...all have strong demand... And for equities, the lower 10 year yield has helped the Nasdaq outperform, and the Dow under-perform... But it is too early to start to talk correction until after the next Fed meeting... Too much dovishness in the Fed hierarchy and too much stimulus out of DC... The crazies are in charge and the algos will push it further than one fighting it can stay solvent... So enjoy the ride.

Tick published 4356 as his ES pivot last night. Long if open above, short if open below. We crossed it and stayed mostly below it since about 5:45a central time. We've tested it twice since and both were failures. Daily Support1 for me is 4350 and we're playing right there......but if the bears want to make a run, this is their chance to have early momentum.

Is there a ticker for BEER?

After the last few days, I think their price is going to explode. I know I've been doing my part.

mrad85 said:

---

Is there a ticker for BEER?

After the last few days, I think their price is going to explode. I know I've been doing my part.

---

$BRBN is a better trade imo