TUESDAY MACROS

MARKETS UNCHNANGED AS OIL SOARS AS OPEC MEETING ENDS...CHINA CRASHES DIDI


FIRST WE APOLOGIZE FOR ALL CAPS... WE DID ALL CAPS YEARS AGO UNTIL ONE OF OUR COLLEAGUES TOOK US ASIDE AND SAID IT WAS LIKE WE WERE YELLING... SO WE ARE WELL AWARE... BUT AT LEAST THIS MORNING WE CANT SEEM TO GET THE I'S OR O'S TO WORK UNLESS WE ARE ALL CAPSS... SO AGAIN , WE APOLOGIZE

GIVEN THE FEAR AND VOLATILITY IN THE WORLD WE THOUGHT WE WOULD GET BIGGER RANGES ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND... OIL IS HIGHER AND ONE OF THE BIG IPO'S OF LAST WEEK, 19 IN ALL, AND 10 ON WEDNESDAY ALONE, GOT CLOCKED AND WENT DOWN OVER 40% EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A SHOT OVER THE BOW FROM A CHINESE REGULATOR...

UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBER... WE SAID WE NEEDED MORE THAN 1 MILLION ON FRIDAY TO GET THE BEARS RILED... THEY TRIED BUT 850 WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH... 720 EXPECTED AND 800 WHISPER... BUT WE STILL THINK THE MARKET MISSED A VERY IMPORTANT PART, WHICH IS WAGE INFLATION... WHILE THE POSTED YOY WAS 3.6%, WHICH IS ALREADY 80% HIGHER THAN THE FED 2% TARGET, THE REAL NUMBER IS ACTUALLY MUCH HIGHER... THIS NUMBER WAS WEIGHED DOWN BY LOW WAGE WORKERS COMING BACK... AND AFTER ADJUSTMENT, ACCORDING TO JEFFERIES, WAS 4.5%...OVER THE PAST THREE MONTHS, ANNUALIZED, WAS OVER 6%... SO WE ARE STILL BELIEVE THAT WAGE INFLATION WILL BE TEH ACHILLES HEEL OF THE FED.

RATES... NOT WHAT WE THOUGHT... WE FELT MARKETS ARE COILING AND WOULD BREAK OUT... IT SEEMS THEY ARE GRINDING AND GOING TO BREAK OUT... NOT THE WAY WE EXPECTED... FRIDAY SAW A STEEPENING, BUT IT WAS BECAUSE THE SHORT END DID BETTER AND THE LONG END STAYED IN CHECK... 10 YEARS TOYED WITH 1.42 OVERNIGHT, BUT THE RANGE WAS LIMITED FROM 1.4457 TO 1.417... WE SEE THIS AS THE NEXT BREAKOUT POINT ON THE WAY TO CHALLENGE THE 1.36 LEVEL OF TWO WEEKS AGO... LONG BOND SHOULD BE AT 2% NOW, BUT IT IS AT 2.04, SO THE BACK END IS LOOKING TIRED...LISTENING TO LARRY SUMMERS OVER THE WEEKEND ON "WALL STREET WEEK", HE POINTED OUT THE MASSIVELY STRONG HOUSING NUMBERS... AND SAID THAT THEY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE INFLATION INDICES, THEY ARE NOT REVERSING ANYTIME SOON, AND IF THEY DONT SHOW UP IN THE INDICES, THAN THE INDICES ARE WRONG... HE THREW HIS HAT INTO THE RING OF THOSE AT THE FED CALLING FOR A TAPERING OR ELIMINATION OF THE MORTGAGE BUYING...WHY STILL THROW FIRE IN THE HOUSING MARKET WHEN IT IS CLEARLY NOT NEEDED... HECK, THE FED SHOULD START TO SELL THEIR MORTGAGE HOLDINGS OUTRIGHT...TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION... WHY ADD STIMULUS WHERE IT IS NOT NEEDED... IT WILL NOT HELP WORKERS TO COME BACK TO THE MARKET BECAUSE THEY CANT GET CHILDCARE OR THAT THEY ARE GETTING TOO MUCH TO STAY HOME...SELL MORTIMER SELL

EQUITIES CONTINUE TO GRIND, EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE FLATTISH NOW... THE WINDOW WE SEE IS ANOTHER 3-4 WEEKS OF GOOD SLEDDING... MAYBE A BIT LONGER... TOO MUCH MONEY ON THE SIDELINES THAT CAN STILL BE PUSHED IN...MARKET SHORTS CONTINUE TO GET STOPPED OUT AND REESTABLISHED... AND STOPPED OUT AGAIN...VALUATIONS ARE TOO HIGH, BUT AS OUR OLD COLLEGUE FROM ANOTHER LIFE, ONCE TOLD US, THE MARKETS CAN STAY HIGHER FOR LONGER THAN YOU CAN REMAIN SOLVENT....ACCORDING TO A NATIXIS SURVEY IN BARRONS , 750 RESPONDENTS EXPECT A 17.3% ANNUAL RETURN THIS YEAR.,.. WHILE IT SEEMS HIGH ON THE SURFACE, S+P IS ALREADY UP 15.87%, SO IT SEEMS REASONABLE AND MAYBE LOW, UNLESS A CORRECTION HAPPENS. WE SAW THAT LONG SHORT FUNDS ARE STRUGGLING. THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY OF CAPTURING THE UPSIDE AT THE INDEX LEVEL DISPITE RUINNING DECADE HIGH GROSS AND NET EXPOSURES. IN 2020 , L/S FUNDS CAPTURED 115% OF THE UPSIDE.. THIS YEAR THAT NUMBER IS 38%... NOT A GOOD YEAR

WHY BONDS AND STOCKS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE... BONDS ARE LOOKING WELL INTO THE FUTURE... SOME SAY 6 MONTHS OUT, WHILE IT LOOKS TO US THAT BONDS ARE FOCUSING ON THE SECOND HALF OF 2022...A YEAR OUT...STOCKS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE MORE LOOKING AT THE PRESENT... BONDS THINK THAT THE ECONOMY WILL SLOW DOWN AND NORMALIZE IN 2022... WE DISAGREE AND SEE INFLATION CONTINUING WELL ABOVE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS... BUT AT SOME TIME THE EQUITIES AND BONDS WILL HAVE TO CONVERGE, AND EITHER WE SEE HIGHER LONG TERM RATES OR A CORRECTION IN EQUITIES... IT WONT BE PRETTY, BUT WE DO NOT SEE IT FOR NOW... TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OVER FISCAL STIMULUS, WORKERS COMING BACK TO FILL THE 9 MILLION OPEN JOBS, COVID UNCERTAINTY, CHANGE AT THE TOP OF THE FED, WHAT DIRECTION THE FED WILL TAKE IN AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER... LOTS TO WATCH...


SHORT WEEKS CAN BE TRICKY... SO FAR ONLY ONE FED SPEAKER ON THE DOCKET WITH THE FOMC MINUTES TOMORROW...

Double_Bagger said:

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🚨 BREAKING NEWS 🚨$AMC scraps its 25M share offering.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 6, 2021

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up 4% this morning in pre-market. Sure is going to make their gang of retail shareholders of about 80% of total outstanding quite happy.

mazag08 said:

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Red Pear Luke said:

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Ragoo said:

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FAT SEXY said:

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Just a reminder for everyone that if you had put 10 Grand into Gold in 1978, it'd be worth about $100,000 today..

Never sleep on this as a hedge option, even via the paper markets. I can guarantee you that the banks and big ballers do not sleep on it, even if they act like Gold doesn't have clout.

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now do the math on a 30 treasury in 1978 at 8.49%

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It would be $126,547 in 2008.

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We'll talk after the metals boom.

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Only two greens on my board right now are QQQ and ASAN (the only two I have puts on).

Spaceship said:

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What the heck happened to CLOV this morning?

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Small caps are all getting murdered today

Trade what's in front of me. Trade what's in front of me. Trade what's in front of me. Trade wha...

$VEON on fire

Delicious green fruit this morning.

$AMZN