im waiting for the inevitable story from one of the FED governors that says, "We may have cocked this last one up." That's my entry point.FriscoKid said:
Looking for a good entry point now. Maybe not today or tomorrow or next week, but searching.
Well now everyone and their dog can see it. Buy low/sell high.oldarmy1 said:
Two face rips that both hit new intraday lows before a triple rip upwards. Get ready for a relief rally. And I got almost 100% of the buys completed when we dipped below my 2350 mark for entry.
gougler08 said:
83 points on SPX today
Yep. People late to the game got screwed today.drill4oil78 said:
Text book bear market rally. Makes every body and the media feel fat and happy. I heard today by a media sort that the bear market was over. Really. We could go up 10+% from the Monday low. It has been a parabolic decline for the market and rise for SH and PSQ. Nothing can keep doing that. Personally I am looking to buy ETF shorts at the SP2500-2600 area and the QQQ in the 6600 area. Lots of overhead resistance ahead of the rally.
This is not over (low volume rally) ... We will test the 2300 area again before this is over. Hopefully it holds and I think it will and the long term bull stays intact. It will take many months to repair the damage in this market. Every bear market has tremendous rallies in short periods of time and just as fast declines off those rallies.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
S&P 500 didn't give the Market a Closing Low below 2,344.6. The Bull continues to run.
As for the NAS, it was way over bought for a long time and maybe now it can stay contained within itself moving forward.
From a technical standpoint the 2,300 area may be revisited; however, that's a short term play and my positions are more longer term entrenched to avoid in & out gyrations.drill4oil78 said:This is not over ... We will test the 2300 area again before this is over. Hopefully it holds and I think it will and the long term bull stays intact. It will take many months to repair the damage in this market. Every bear market has tremendous rallies in short periods of time and just as fast declines off those rallies.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
S&P 500 didn't give the Market a Closing Low below 2,344.6. The Bull continues to run.
As for the NAS, it was way over bought for a long time and maybe now it can stay contained within itself moving forward.
IrishTxAggie said:
Roku
I am not a day trader, but I am out of the market when a long term trend has been broken like it was in Oct/Nov. Not a buy and hold type. I do trade ETF shorts during the down trend. I am now looking to get back in on the long side at this time and will when the trend is reversed. Hate to tell you unemployment is a backward looking indicator and does not predict recessions and the FED is made up of a bunch of academic morons that look at backward looking indicators + they are looking for the same type of inflation that was around in the 70's and 80's that we are not going to have in these economic and technological times. If you want a better indicator for recession prediction use the LEI trend.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:From a technical standpoint the 2,300 area may be revisited; however, that's a short term play and my positions are more longer term entrenched to avoid in & out gyrations.drill4oil78 said:This is not over ... We will test the 2300 area again before this is over. Hopefully it holds and I think it will and the long term bull stays intact. It will take many months to repair the damage in this market. Every bear market has tremendous rallies in short periods of time and just as fast declines off those rallies.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
S&P 500 didn't give the Market a Closing Low below 2,344.6. The Bull continues to run.
As for the NAS, it was way over bought for a long time and maybe now it can stay contained within itself moving forward.
As a general rule, Bear Market declines in excess of 20% begin in advance of the development of recessionary conditions. Recessions are accompanied by rising unemployment, which creates stress on the ability of consumers to generate the income necessary to support discretionary spending. Corporate earning power recedes along with cash dividends as the economy contracts. Investors respond by selling stocks, and in a severe recession declines can far exceed the 20% Bear threshold. The size of the decline is usually correlated to the severity of the recession.
Today, all economic indicators used by the FED continue to reflect a strong economy. Jerome Powell pointed out in his press conference the FED may not reach its goal of 2% inflation this year. Powell should stop using the Dot Plot as it means nothing in an environment where an interest rate is greater than zero. There is no recession visible yet. Pre-recession indicators of accelerating inflation, payroll growth, rising unemployment claims, inverted yield curve and leading economic indicators suggest that risk of recession remains low over the next several months. (Trade wars do need to be watched) All measurable data points are solid and strong, housing, labor, manufacturing and the Bull continues to be intact.
gougler08 said:
Do you think NFLX still gets to that 227 gap?
You skimmed over one part, but I fify.drill4oil78 said:I am not a day trader, but I am out of the market when a long term trend has been broken like it was in Oct/Nov. Not a buy and hold type. I do trade ETF shorts during the down trend. I am now looking to get back in on the long side at this time and will when the trend is reversed. Hate to tell you unemployment is a backward looking indicator and does not predict recessions and the FED is made up of a bunch of academic morons that look at backward looking indicators + they are looking for the same type of inflation that was around in the 70's and 80's that we are not going to have in these economic and technological times. If you want a better indicator for recession prediction use the LEI trend.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:From a technical standpoint the 2,300 area may be revisited; however, that's a short term play and my positions are more longer term entrenched to avoid in & out gyrations.drill4oil78 said:This is not over ... We will test the 2300 area again before this is over. Hopefully it holds and I think it will and the long term bull stays intact. It will take many months to repair the damage in this market. Every bear market has tremendous rallies in short periods of time and just as fast declines off those rallies.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
S&P 500 didn't give the Market a Closing Low below 2,344.6. The Bull continues to run.
As for the NAS, it was way over bought for a long time and maybe now it can stay contained within itself moving forward.
As a general rule, Bear Market declines in excess of 20% begin in advance of the development of recessionary conditions. Recessions are accompanied by rising unemployment, which creates stress on the ability of consumers to generate the income necessary to support discretionary spending. Corporate earning power recedes along with cash dividends as the economy contracts. Investors respond by selling stocks, and in a severe recession declines can far exceed the 20% Bear threshold. The size of the decline is usually correlated to the severity of the recession.
Today, all economic indicators used by the FED continue to reflect a strong economy. Jerome Powell pointed out in his press conference the FED may not reach its goal of 2% inflation this year. Powell should stop using the Dot Plot as it means nothing in an environment where an interest rate is greater than zero. There is no recession visible yet. Pre-recession indicators of accelerating inflation, payroll growth, rising unemployment claims, inverted yield curve and leading economic indicators suggest that risk of recession remains low over the next several months. (Trade wars do need to be watched) All measurable data points are solid and strong, housing, labor, manufacturing and the Bull continues to be intact.
Bear markets in a secular bull usually are 20+% declines. A few in the 1982-2000 bull were just that. In real terms the market has predicted 5 out of the last 2 recessions. In 1987 we were down 27% in a booming economy and no recession. The 2008-2009 bear was the end of the secular bear started in 2000 and had several 30-50% declines and quick bull market moves of over 100%.
All I am saying this recent rally is low volume and will more than likely get stopped in the SP 2500-2600 range. I doubt this will be a "V" bottom recovery and the lows will need to be tested or we set new lows. 2250-2300 is a key area for this bull to hold and continue forward.
oldarmy1 said:
A huge day in the books. 401k accounts are up a net 42% year over year. Bring on the bear market!
Taking the 42% as 100% here is the breakdown:claym711 said:oldarmy1 said:
A huge day in the books. 401k accounts are up a net 42% year over year. Bring on the bear market!
Those are incredible returns, especially in a retirement account.
oldarmy1 said:
Saying today was a classic bear market rally is kinda outlandish. There has never been a move this large so, while it might be, it could also be a reset of a bull market that has been begging for a major correction.
And lest anyone forget the markets have been trading sideways for a year. Yeah, a new high can be thrown in there but it was quickly swatted back within the sideways pattern.
Most 401k accounts have shown little to gain up to the big selloff and are now down 20-35% if they just buy and hold.
Let's see what happens but if you were short today you got hammered hard. Markets many times like to follow that up with more pain to short holders. Other times consolidation, and if truly a bear market continued trend lower.
The current move will never qualify as a bear market based on the last 3 weeks. It will have to regain control of sentiment and drive buyers out. Today's record setting move was big money placing their bets, so it won't be fast unrestrained rips short term IMO.
Always enjoy and truly appreciate your analysis; hoping to get a bit of clarity here if you don't mind:oldarmy1 said:
Today's record setting move was big money placing their bets, so it won't be fast unrestrained rips short term IMO.
