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21,523,215 Views | 223304 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by ProgN
bmks270
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AG
Looks like lots of volume on the $60 October calls. I'm thinking hold the call for a week or two sell at SBUX hits $60-$61. any reason not to? When is the best time to pull the trigger? The SPY monthly has like 6 consecutive green bars and is at all time highes which has me anticipating a market pull back the next few weeks. Should I wait for SBUX to fall a little bit enter at $57 instead of $57.9?
oldarmy1
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Yeah they failed on the breakout on SBUX, coming all the way back to within 30 cents of opening price. A lot of traders will see that and the volume as a reversal top. If it loses the low from Friday most would actually enter Puts, especially if the broader market is experiencing a further pullback. Otherwise you wait for that follow through above this resistance because there would be plenty of upside room to trade.
bmks270
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quote:
Yeah they failed on the breakout on SBUX, coming all the way back to within 30 cents of opening price. A lot of traders will see that and the volume as a reversal top. If it loses the low from Friday most would actually enter Puts, especially if the broader market is experiencing a further pullback. Otherwise you wait for that follow through above this resistance because there would be plenty of upside room to trade.


Thanks for the reply. So the reversal top is on the daily chart right? When I look at the weekly chart it looks like it is right on track to $61.
oldarmy1
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That is just a daily chart, correct. The overall trend chart shows a breakout. BTW - I'm sure you see it but the volume spikes doubled on the 5 minute chart to hit this new intraday high.
oldarmy1
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S is on the run after great earnings

S gave a rare gap and run after earnings already out opportunity. Gapped open to $4.82 and has cruised up to $5.50. Oh if they were all that easy.
Aggie Oilman
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GILD trying to break past 87.75. Good earnings are on the horizon. I think the gap gets filled tomorrow.
claym711
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hmmm, GILD. Are you buyin calls around 89/90 or where?
Aggie Oilman
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90
claym711
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A miss likely sends GILD back to 81-82. So the R/R is basically even. Those calls jumped pretty significantly already. Wish I had gotten into that last week. Might grab a few. A beat will be a big winner.
Aggie Oilman
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I think GILD goes to 92, then 95 by Aug exp.
pfo
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oldarmy1 has me looking at Twitter. In their last year their revenues were $2.9 billion and their compensation included $900 million in stock! UGH! Also their subscriber base appears to have stopped growing.

I'm no expert on the stock but was just looking at it and those two negatives jumped out at me.

I see GILD had a mild beat on earnings! I own this stock for the long haul!
oldarmy1
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Gild gave a mixed outlook and it dropped as low as $83.45 and has been climbing back now to $85.40.
El Chupacabra
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quote:
oldarmy1 has me looking at Twitter. In their last year their revenues were $2.9 billion and their compensation included $900 million in stock! UGH! Also their subscriber base appears to have stopped growing.

I'm no expert on the stock but was just looking at it and those two negatives jumped out at me.

I see GILD had a mild beat on earnings! I own this stock for the long haul!


I wonder if their blatant censorship of conservatives will hurt them.
oldarmy1
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TWTR subs have definitely hit a plateau in the 310 million active user mark. The growth of revenues from social media advertising increases and TWTR's ability to continue adding active subscribers will be what is watched.

You also see that projections for 2016 were 268M active subs, so they are ahead of that curve.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/282087/number-of-monthly-active-twitter-users/
pfo
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^^^Thanks oldarmy
claym711
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81 Doesnt hold on GILD and its headed to 75. If get some volume bounce, I will long to 88. Break down and I short to 75.
oldarmy1
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quote:
hmmm, GILD. Are you buyin calls around 89/90 or where?
Not me. It made a late push above $88 on average volume. It didn't even meet the volume rule (double the previous 5 minute volume on the minute chart) to enter the trade and no way should a trade be entered into earnings based on a last minute move above resistance.

If you aren't in and up on TWTR then I wouldn't be entering it either into earnings after the bell. If you have been in and enjoying the gain you hedge into the close or sooner if the stock begins moving lower. I just entered a partial Put hedge and was coming to post it.
aggie_fan13
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GILD is now at 80.72 , good time to buy now or wait and see if it drops some more ??
SnowboardAg
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The trend of GILD is lower highs (a downtrend) on the on the monthly chart. Don't buy until it breaks resistance (of the downtrend). I can't post a picture of it right now....

The monthly low was 77.92 in June 2016. GILD will most likely make it down to that level and either consolidate and move up, or shoot down further (as 77.92 is a support level). If that 77.92 level is broken to the downside, then we'll have to look for the next support level.

Don't fight a downward trend. "The trend is your friend until it ends."

Let the market speak for the stock and once we have some consolidation and a direction, that's when you jump on the train, either buying calls or puts.

oldarmy1
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quote:
GILD is now at 80.72 , good time to buy now or wait and see if it drops some more ??
Not on my watch list now, so some of these other trader's who follow it can weigh in.

On TWTR, just to complete the strategy posts. For non-core holding shares I now have sold Aug $18 strike covered calls for $1.32 or $132/100 shares expiring this Friday. If TWTR surprises to the upside I most likely get called out and those shares end up being closed out at $19.32. If we see TWTR meet but no larger guidance I see it falling back under $18 and I'd simply collect that $132 for every call option sold and hang onto the shares. For my core holding shares I have purchased July 29th $16.50 strike Puts at an average $0.24 cents or $24/100 shares of core holding. Preference obviously is to see the stock pop and have the trading shares called out closing out those shares and having core shares complete my double requirement (Need $19.88). Only would need to sell 22% of core holdings to have remaining long-term shares "net free".

Let the earnings release commence!
0708aggie
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Anyone like the GPRO play on earnings tomorrow?
oldarmy1
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quote:
Anyone like the GPRO play on earnings tomorrow?
Ever since the markets determined that it's ultimately just a camera it's flat-lined. Is there something in their product mix that draws you to it? Interested to know because I love technology based stocks on the outs, where people are missing the bigger picture (pun intended )
pfo
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Twitter's tweeter taking it in the shorts after hours and after earnings.
0708aggie
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I've seen talk about the Karma (Drone)

http://www.goproace.com/2016/06/gopro-subtly-leaks-drone-karma-move-teaser-video/
The Pilot
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Looks like AAPL did better than expected.
oldarmy1
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quote:
Twitter's tweeter taking it in the shorts after hours and after earnings.
Right on that $16.50 Put.
Beat on earnings but the talking points are just as we've discussed. All eyes right now are on subs growth while I'm looking at their monetization strategy that drove those earnings. That strategy is in its infancy.

Anyways - this is how the trade worked out. My Put hedge absorbs a big part of the drop. The selling of covered calls are going to be way in my favor when the market opens. I am untouched and actually end up above where I was at the close.

pfo
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^^^genius!
Wehner High
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The new drone legislation should make this an interesting thing to watch. The drone industry is ready to break out in my opinion. It just depends if GoPro will be apart of it
oldarmy1
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quote:
The new drone legislation should make this an interesting thing to watch. The drone industry is ready to break out in my opinion. It just depends if GoPro will be apart of it
Expand please. I actually know little of this industry.
larryj41
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Looks like AAPL did better than expected.
Yes, it did. I held some calls and was sweating it a little, but tomorrow morning should be fun.
Wehner High
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FAA regulations are being made to allow for drones to be operated safely by drone pilots. There was a question earlier in the year if drones would be allowed to be flown, but the newest legislation allows for them to be operated. The link below gives a more in-depth look at the legislation.

http://www.faa.gov/uas/media/Part_107_Summary.pdf

This opens the door for a lot of different uses, for example, I took a private equity class this past year at A&M and there was a presentation about a roofing inspection company that uses drones to take pictures and videos. It's safer, more effective, and more efficient. Link: https://www.better.vu/

This is just one area that can use this technology and the possibilities are endless for other things...another example, almost every wedding video I have seen over the past year has had a drone shot over the venue and some even over the ceremony.

I also think we will begin to see a shift towards utilizing drones for delivery, if they find a way to work with the line of sight clause in the legislation. But, if the drone industry shows the technology can keep them safe in the sky, I think that clause can be negotiated. Amazon wants it for their Prime delivery, I think even those food delivery companies could hop on board.

Overall, I think by finally getting a ruling by the FAA on drone operations, the industry has been set for people to jump in with the technology to create a new way to reach consumers.

Aggie Oilman
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oldarmy where do you see TWTR getting support after the earnings miss? Looks like 14 is major support although I doubt it drops that much. Thanks again for all your insight.
oldarmy1
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quote:
oldarmy where do you see TWTR getting support after the earnings miss? Looks like 14 is major support although I doubt it drops that much. Thanks again for all your insight.


The 15.50 area technically. It traded $16.34-$17.06 after hours. Currently at $16.50. If it doesn't bounce into opening bell above $17.10 then expect a flash down below $16 to get rid of the day traders.
oldarmy1
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All TWTR Puts have been closed. Left all of the $18 covered calls in place since seeing $18 before expiration is unlikely. Might as well collect that full premium paid.
Joseph Parrish
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Any insight on the oil market? Things have been going down lately.
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