Part of me wants to put on a 321/324 strangle and the other half of me thinks we sit right in the middle all day. Admittedly, I don't play SPY very often. Gut says to stay away.

TecRecAg said:

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Part of me wants to put on a 321/324 strangle and the other half of me thinks we sit right in the middle all day. Admittedly, I don't play SPY very often. Gut says to stay away.

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sell an ATM call and put with wings for protection

so I'm a total cheap ass and I won't pay for the upload capability, but the SPX 21 EMA is 3182. The 8 EMA is 3231. ES_F is at 3229, so barely under the 8 EMA.

I'll believe it when we go under the 21 EMA.

NDX, however, is another story. 21 EMA there is 10519 and we closed cash session at 10580, futures are 10,564. Be wary on that. 8 EMA is 10719, so a big move to close underneath that.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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so I'm a total cheap ass and I won't pay for the upload capability, but the SPX 21 EMA is 3182. The 8 EMA is 3231. ES_F is at 3229, so barely under the 8 EMA.

I'll believe it when we go under the 21 EMA.

NDX, however, is another story. 21 EMA there is 10519 and we closed cash session at 10580, futures are 10,564. Be wary on that. 8 EMA is 10719, so a big move to close underneath that.

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I found it interesting that MSFT and APPL have been steadfast in bouncing off their trendlines since March. Both have now closed below it last few days, with APPL breaking it today.

I sold out of my inverse (don't do options like Bill Murray don't do defense) awaiting the bounce up off 21 day.... I wonder if this time is different and will take stimulus package bill to get us out of the sell off.

NRD09 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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NRD09 said:

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Bretton Gekko said:

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High probability we are gonna see 3255 in the next 24 hrs. Im long until around there then re-eval.

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Could've used this comment before i bought a 316p at close :p
I'll call it a hedge

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that's only 20 handles. really not a big deal.

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it's above the 21DMA! I was told to respect the 21 DMA!!!

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let the trend be your friend... Thursday's typically close red (especially if we open up or even). So next time buy the put at open or slight rip up, then sell it at close I went back and looked at days of the week for the past several months, Tuesdays and Thursdays, typically no bueno.

Rice and Fries said:

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The only way to derail your plan is Congress passing a stimulus deal or announcing significant progress towards one. Never doubt the BRRRRR man

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go all in here then ...I'll daytrade mostly and roll with a few options, nothing crazy. Even the fed will run out of bullets at some point. A healthy pullback is a good thing.

BREwmaster said:

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Rice and Fries said:

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The only way to derail your plan is Congress passing a stimulus deal or announcing significant progress towards one. Never doubt the BRRRRR man

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go all in here then ...I'll daytrade mostly and roll with a few options, nothing crazy. Even the fed will run out of bullets at some point. A healthy pullback is a good thing.

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they've got at least one more nuclear option: buying stocks.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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BREwmaster said:

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Rice and Fries said:

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The only way to derail your plan is Congress passing a stimulus deal or announcing significant progress towards one. Never doubt the BRRRRR man

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go all in here then ...I'll daytrade mostly and roll with a few options, nothing crazy. Even the fed will run out of bullets at some point. A healthy pullback is a good thing.

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they've got at least one more nuclear option: buying stocks.

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Personally, I don't see them doing that prior to the election.

Will do some research on this. To this point I've stuck with buying calls and puts to scrape premium. Really don't want to worry about being assigned shares. SPX should be my play instead of SPY

Bretton Gekko said:

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High probability we are gonna see 3255 in the next 24 hrs. Im long until around there then re-eval.

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For McInnis if no one answered his earlier question about The missing bear

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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don't fight the fed when it comes to stock buying.

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They better not. F that.

Tech CEO hearing will probably be postponed, source says

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/tech-ceo-hearing-looks-like-it-will-be-postponed-source-says.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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don't fight the fed when it comes to stock buying.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/UnhealthyMinorBlackrhino-max-1mb.gif

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Yup. Plenty of other central banks buy equities. The Fed will too before this MMT stuff is over

Maybe. Mobile arm compute doesn't always translate to x64. They've been running 7nm for over a year now so capacity expansion isn't out of the question. Heck tsmc is likely running in additional fabs as well.

Do any of you know anything about OTLK?

Seems like a solid history but I can't tell if there have been recent reverse splits or splits. Etrade has it as a very strong recommendation. Its @$1.55 with a $6 target

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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you guys watch - if the unthinkable happens and we drop below 2500 SPX, the fed will be there to buy QQQ, SPY, IWM, and DIA.

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yep, and I think even 2750 will do the trick

Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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Do any of you know anything about OTLK?

Seems like a solid history but I can't tell if there have been recent reverse splits or splits. Etrade has it as a very strong recommendation. Its @$1.55 with a $6 target

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I know nothing about it, but I'm not sure I'd trust an "etrade rec" anymore than a CNBC one (aka the cartoon network).

The chart does look very nice though, in an ascending channel at the moment... short term gap fill possible to 1.90's, then $3 a longer term target.




Overall trend is a huge rounded bottom since last summer...bullish pattern.

If you like these types of plays, look up @RadioSilentPlay on twitter - he is a wizard at these.

Buy GLD.

How much do historical breakout and retests matter with something like this?

That's pretty typical with long consolidation boxes. I was all over it and planning to likely add Friday morning. What's not typical is a rocket ship after hours the day of the retest so I missed the add window for now!

Audjpy throwing another decent sized red candle already this morning. Futures slightly down. Be on whipsaw alert again.

Forgive my ignorance - this good or bad for markets?

What are everyone's thoughts on FAANG? I'm particularly interested in Amazon. It's fallen quite a it this week, and I can't imagine they're going to have bad Q2 Earnings and should have good outlook. My own personal thoughts as people continue to Tilburg to online shopping

txaggie_08 said:

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What are everyone's thoughts on FAANG? I'm particularly interested in Amazon. It's fallen quite a it this week, and I can't imagine they're going to have bad Q2 Earnings and should have good outlook. My own personal thoughts as people continue to Tilburg to online shopping

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The majority of stocks that have reported good numbers has sold off afterwards so I'd proceed with caution.

Think of it as a tell for what to expect today.

McInnis 03 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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McInnis - high 5 on the condor. I got out for 75% max profit. Probably could have waited for 90%, but hey, it's a good day!

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WHAT ARE WE SELLING TONIGHT!?

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INTC or AXP?

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Looking at IV, it looks like DFS, ETFC, and AXP are 1, 2, and 3, then INTC is 4th.

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Someone call me out here if I'm off, but I'll try to check these numbers later when people start showing implied moves....

Assumption (I'm using 85% of the ATM Straddle as the implied move)
1) DFS implied move $1.45 (trading around $52 now)
2) ETFC implied move $2.34 (trading around $52.50 now)
3) AXP implied move $2.90 (trading at 96.60)
4) INTC implied move $2.36 (trading at 61.38)

Once I like these later again, I'll see about selling some IC's using those as the safety barrier. I'm conservative so I'll likely bump up my numbers at the expense of premium sold.

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Sold AXP IC's (+92p/-93p/-99c/+100c) and sold INTC IC's (+56.5p/-57.5p/-62.5c/+63.5c)

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F INTC. I hope you all get stinky rich on AMD.

txaggie_08 said:

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Forgive my ignorance - this good or bad for markets?

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Nothing is concrete but AUDJPY is kind of an indicator for what's to happen. It has to do with large institutions and how they borrow low interest currency and convert it into high interest currency and then try to make hay with that using the interest rate in their favor. When the big boys are putting risk on, AUDJPY tends to rise, when they're taking risk off, AUDJPY tends to drop.

AUDJPY up = bullish
AUDJPY down = bearish

Read up on "carry trade" to learn more.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Buy GLD.

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PSA: GLD (and other physical metal etfs) are taxed as collectibles, not like traditional capital gains.

For long term gains, they get taxed at 28% instead of the much lower 15% (or 20% for you whales); for short term gains, they get taxed as regular income (like regular cap gains)

So from a tax perspective, for poors like me in the 24% bracket or lower, it's counter-intuitive: it's actually better to treat it as a short term investment and get taxed at the income level rather than hold it long and get taxed at 28%.

For long term investors, it may be worth considering very long-dated options - these are taxed at normal long-term cap gains (assuming you don't let it exercise).

Or just trade it in your IRAs and don't worry

It looks a bit double toppy just like NDX and a lot of tech stocks. Today should get a bounce or it is telling for more down or sideways at best. I can see today being indecisive with a weak bounce just to keep everyone guessing over the weekend. Just a guess though. SPY still looks fairly strong so maybe this is just more rotation from massive profits the last few months.

deadbq03 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Buy GLD.

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PSA: GLD (and other physical metal etfs) are taxed as collectibles, not like traditional capital gains.

For long term gains, they get taxed at 28% instead of the much lower 15% (or 20% for you whales); for short term gains, they get taxed as regular income (like regular cap gains)

So from a tax perspective, for poors like me in the 24% bracket or lower, it's counter-intuitive: it's actually better to treat it as a short term investment and get taxed at the income level rather than hold it long and get taxed at 28%.

For long term investors, it may be worth considering very long-dated options - these are taxed at normal long-term cap gains (assuming you don't let it exercise).

Or just trade it in your IRAs and don't worry

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or buy strong mining companies that are on an absolute tear right now. Been my best performing stocks this year. Most of mine are up 50-120% YTD

I've been thinking about rotating some profits into a couple miners GOLD and NEM. Thoughts? I don't know much about them but understand these are two of the best?