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McInnis 03
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McInnis 03 said:




P.S. Ripster is usually a really solid with his DD
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

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Barty Dont Hedge
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McInnis 03 said:

McInnis 03 said:




P.S. Ripster is usually a really solid with his DD

Why? Why would you do this to us? Please ROKU don't submit to the McInnis curse.
Grown Pear
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Not necessarily. I get what you're saying and it's good to understand in that context.

Sure you're giving up potential future profits with those shares you sell but you're minimizing your risk substantially. And freeing up capital for other investments that could potentially give you a greater return than staying in one that has already run up substantially. There's also a cost by staying in that one particular investment, it's the opportunity cost of using those funds to invest in other companies which going forward could give you even greater return than the one that's "already run up". So there's a "cost" no matter what you choose to do.

If you know the timeframe and future return of each stock you can put all your money in that one particular one to maximize your return. Of course, that's impossible and we can't do that. So you can put ALL your money in the one you feel the best about.... but I doubt you do that too. If you put any money outside of that one you feel best about there's a cost to that, the cost that the one you like does really well and you don't have all your funds in it.
I bleed maroon
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Proposition Joe said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Proposition Joe said:

McInnis 03 said:

Philip J Fry said:

Can someone explain net free?

Is that simply 100% return + fees/taxes?
buy 100 shares at $50.
Sell 50 shares at $100.
Own 50 shares, net free.

It's equivalent to taking off all the risk.

But you're essentially paying for the reduction in risk with future profits. It's a good strategy for many people, but it can also put people into this mindset that just because they are "at least break-even" on an investment that they have done well -- except "at least break-even" shouldn't be most people's goal.
the whole point is to turn a VERY short term trade into a 100% profit, long term option, no matter the risk.

Many people here have net free, ROKU shares with a cost basis in the 30s. They became net free in a matter of weeks if not days. It isn't a technical term, but a mindset that you blasted the shlt out of some short term risk and now you have long term, fugg you money potential.

I understand it, but it's careful for people to also understand "net free" isn't actually free. You're paying for it, it's just being paid for in future potential profits. If your expected value for why you entered the position in the first place still hasn't been reached, then you're essentially doubting your initial prediction. It's a hedge.

That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's counter-productive if that wasn't part of your initial plan.
PropJoe:

I think you're discounting the likely purpose of the original "plan". In most cases, doubling your money IS the plan. Therefore, if it happens sooner than expected, it's not hedging, but accepting MORE risk by keeping some of your original stake in play.

In words I know you and I both understand, it's like my approach to playing craps - I put $300 in a game, and once I have $600 in the trough, I put half in my pocket (nice friendly black chips ). Then, once I make that much again, I slip a few more black chips in my pocket. It's bankroll management, nothing more or less.

Now, as opposed to craps, where if you play long enough, you lose, the stock market is win-biased, where if you play long enough, it melts upward (if you're a long equity buyer). That's why it's a better bet than gambling (even if you are a sharp, like yourself).
oldarmy1
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NRZ August $8 calls moving.

deadbq03
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I see it more as a FOMO shield than a hedge. It's hard to exit a position and then watch it keep going up while you wait for the next entry opportunity.

I think conceptually, if human emotion were taken completely out of the equation, it's probably better to take all of your big profits, move your money to other opportunities, and don't look back... but that last part is so hard to do.
jeromePOWell
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In for a YOLO MSFT 215 weekly call, if they can beat earnings like always I could see this magneting back to July highs and then continue the march
59 South
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I'll kill a few birds with one post here on ROKU and net free...

I have about a 4 bagger so far on ROKU which was and still is the biggest single buy I've ever done. It was a steal in late 2018 with massive long term potential. I had done my DD on it. In hind sight I could have traded it net free a few times over, but I just chose to leave it be cause it really is a company that could be $100B in a few years with stock price around 1000 so I would I sell now when it has crazy momentum? In hindsight I should've sold last year when it hit 175 and then bought back under 100 right?

On the ripster charting, that is pretty weak IMO... he was 'right' but how do you just ignore the candles from 7/13? The real breakout was midday yesterday. Today was just follow through.

On SQ I'm at a double but am targeting a triple (~190) to sell 1/3. I'll adjust if needed. This is also a half position for me compared to ROKU.

With JD, I sold 60% at a double a couple of weeks ago when it went over 68. That was a technical sell and I almost sold it all. I've locked in profit and still have 40% for long term or if it explodes I can take some more off. China is more risky imo so I'm more careful than with ROKU or SQ.

If I doubled up on a penny stock in short order, I'd probably sell way more than half if not all depending on what it was.

Long story short, it depends on your situation, whether it is a taxed or non-taxed account, position size, and knowing what you're holding. No 2 situations are ever the same.

ETA agree with you guys saying there can be better value for your capital elsewhere. I took that 60% JD sell and have rotated to AMD with 2/3 of it. If AMD breaks out of it's box I will put the other 1/3 in it fully rotating all that profit to a stock that has better short term upside potential imo.

SpeedyAg90
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Those AMD puts I was talking about yesterday are paying off !!! Bought some 7/24 57P this morning right when It got below 58. Been on a constant drop since.
khaos288
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SpeedyAg90 said:

Those AMD puts I was talking about yesterday are paying off !!! Bought some 7/24 57P this morning right when It got below 58. Been on a constant drop since.


Sold my weekly covered call at the top as well.
tsuag10
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Live now. RE: China IP theft, I think.

mavsfan4ever
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Grown Pear said:

Not necessarily. I get what you're saying and it's good to understand in that context.

Sure you're giving up potential future profits with those shares you sell but you're minimizing your risk substantially. And freeing up capital for other investments that could potentially give you a greater return than staying in one that has already run up substantially. There's also a cost by staying in that one particular investment, it's the opportunity cost of using those funds to invest in other companies which going forward could give you even greater return than the one that's "already run up". So there's a "cost" no matter what you choose to do.

If you know the timeframe and future return of each stock you can put all your money in that one particular one to maximize your return. Of course, that's impossible and we can't do that. So you can put ALL your money in the one you feel the best about.... but I doubt you do that too. If you put any money outside of that one you feel best about there's a cost to that, the cost that the one you like does really well and you don't have all your funds in it.
I understand why people go net free, but I agree with PropJoe on this one. In my opinion the motivation to go net free is purely psychological, and it doesn't make much sense from a pure trading or expected value calculation standpoint. People going net free either want the peace of mind to know that they won't lose money on that particular stock, or want the peace of mind to know that if the stock keeps running, they at least still have some of it. I'm not at all saying that the psychological reasons are not good reasons to go net free. They are legitimate reasons to go net free if it makes someone more relaxed or sleep better at night. But I think it's important to differentiate from psychological trades and deciding to make a trade because you feel like it will bring you the most monetary value over time.

From a pure mathematical/value standpoint, if you have other investments that you think will bring you a greater return than the stock you are in, then you should theoretically sell all of your stock and enter into the better investment. Or, if you think the stock you are in will bring you good returns moving forward, then it theoretically makes no sense to sell some to go net free (other than psychological reasons).

Of course, this is assuming that you don't have all of your eggs in one basket, which I don't think most people do. I agree that if you went "all in" on a stock or have a large percentage of your portfolio in one stock, then it would make sense to take some risk off the table and diversify with other stocks. But then again, if you were fine with that risk when you bought the stock, then what has changed to make you want to take risk off the table after the stock has shot up? If someone is immediately wanting to take risk off the table when the stock goes up, I wouldn't think they would want the risk of going "all in" on a stock to begin with.
jeromePOWell
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Selling these for a later entry, looks like some people exiting positions in MSFT to avoid earnings volatility- plus linkedin layoff anouncement, should be a cheaper re-entry this afternoon
SpeedyAg90
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Perfect timing man, I sold some calls a little too early yesterday so AMD was on my mind all yesterday and had seen it fall so many times around 58 so thought about some puts.
oldarmy1
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TLRY looks like it's about to make a move
frankm01
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What's the consensus on ZOM? Anyone still in? Thanks.
McInnis 03
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oldarmy1 said:

TLRY looks like it's about to make a move
In the 7.5C weeklies
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Maximus_Meridius
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Looks like SDC is gonna power through the daily R3 pivot level.
oldarmy1
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McInnis 03 said:

oldarmy1 said:

TLRY looks like it's about to make a move
In the 7.5C weeklies
I have mainly 2022 $10 LEAPS. Frankly $1.35 is a cheap ticket on whacky weed
McInnis 03
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TLRY fired the 2M squeeze, fired the 5M squeeze, and there is volume on this move.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
khaos288
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SpeedyAg90 said:

Perfect timing man, I sold some calls a little too early yesterday so AMD was on my mind all yesterday and had seen it fall so many times around 58 so thought about some puts.


Something about a blind squirrel and a goosed clock in a snow storm

Really I saw how strong it was yesterday and didn't think it had the gas the rest of the week. I've been doing my weeklies after watching Monday. That seems to have helped me.
Touchless
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Question for those smarter than me. Question for the board. ONTX is mostly hovering in the $1.32 - $1.35 range. On 9/23/19, the high was $1.32 and on 9/20/19 the low was $1.5. We covered that gap this morning and quickly backtracked. I'm assuming it's just needing to break back through the $1.33 range to continue upwards to the next resistance point around $1.5? Is that something y'all would expect to see or is it likely to push back down and test the $1.2 range from 9/23/19 - 9/26/19?
tsuag10
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thirdcoast
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The put/call ratio was mentioned here a few weeks ago, does anyone overlay that with channels or MAs to get an indicator like this guy?

Looks like same pattern as end of 2020 when market continued bull run for couple more months.

59 South
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Not saying this is wrong, but man, humans sure seem to like to complicate and over-analyze things...
KT 90
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oldarmy1 said:

Sold all SLV calls. Sold CDE covered calls against all shares $5 and under


Are you still bullish on SLV as a hedge? I believe it was you that posted that a couple weeks ago. I picked up some shares that have done well recently.
thirdcoast
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59 South said:

Not saying this is wrong, but man, humans sure seem to like to complicate and over-analyze things...


Yep, I guess the simple analysis is that the S&P PE ratio etc doesn't matter anymore until Fed steps away....but this is actually the Put/Call chart I meant to post.

Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Touchless said:

Question for those smarter than me. Question for the board. ONTX is mostly hovering in the $1.32 - $1.35 range. On 9/23/19, the high was $1.32 and on 9/20/19 the low was $1.5. We covered that gap this morning and quickly backtracked. I'm assuming it's just needing to break back through the $1.33 range to continue upwards to the next resistance point around $1.5? Is that something y'all would expect to see or is it likely to push back down and test the $1.2 range from 9/23/19 - 9/26/19?
Interested as well here. I'm in heavy already on it buying in the mid 50s-60s and thinking if I should go in for more in the $1.30s.
oldarmy1
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KT 90 said:

oldarmy1 said:

Sold all SLV calls. Sold CDE covered calls against all shares $5 and under


Are you still bullish on SLV as a hedge? I believe it was you that posted that a couple weeks ago. I picked up some shares that have done well recently.

I'd sell a $19 covered call out to August
oldarmy1
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Accumulating shares of QD as a long term strategy. If it pops as it looks I'd sell some covered calls against it at $3+
texagbeliever
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FE may get hammered if the FBI bust of Ohio lawmaker bribe traces back to them. Down 10% on the day, announcement on the arrest at 1:30 CST.
BrokeAssAggie
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TELL breaking out...
khaos288
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oldarmy1 said:

Accumulating shares of QD as a long term strategy. If it pops as it looks I'd sell some covered calls against it at $3+


2.5 level pop a good alert?
gougler08
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SDC looking to test its 200 EMA
Brewmaster
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Touchless said:

Question for those smarter than me. Question for the board. ONTX is mostly hovering in the $1.32 - $1.35 range. On 9/23/19, the high was $1.32 and on 9/20/19 the low was $1.5. We covered that gap this morning and quickly backtracked. I'm assuming it's just needing to break back through the $1.33 range to continue upwards to the next resistance point around $1.5? Is that something y'all would expect to see or is it likely to push back down and test the $1.2 range from 9/23/19 - 9/26/19?
Interested as well here. I'm in heavy already on it buying in the mid 50s-60s and thinking if I should go in for more in the $1.30s.
go net free if you haven't already (sell half or less since you're avg is .60ish.

It is hard to say, it had massive accumulation the last few days (again today at 77 million with 2 plus hours to go!)...but at any moment those new buyers could be institutions ready to rug pull it and short it (what if an offering were dropped today after hours?).
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