Hahaha, pretty much, when's the next hit? has to be soon with VXX looking coiled and ready!aggiedaniel06 said:
The market is just hungover from it's three month cocaine bender and waiting for the next shipment from Jerome "Pablo Escobar" Powell.
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aggiedaniel06 said:
The market is just hungover from it's three month cocaine bender and waiting for the next shipment from Jerome "Pablo Escobar" Powell.
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When is the party over because I've loaded up on SPY puts the past 5 days?
I bought VXX calls (dirt cheap weeklies) today, as a hedge. I'll do it again on Friday buying next weeks expiration and if these expire worthless, so what I only paid .14 (today). SPY puts work too, but I'm not a fan of the premiums. You can also go much further out on the VXX calls if it helps you sleep better (you just pay extra for the premium).Bob Knights Liver said:
The downside being the stock or the market as a whole moving against you. So what would be a way to hedge these? Check for some Sept-Nov puts to buy for less than the call you sell? Or some hedges of SPX?
So this is pure speculation on my part.
There will be another massive fiscal and possibly monetary stimulus here in the next few months. The banks, especially JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs which are closest to the Fed and Government (Mnuchin, Powell are ex-goldman boys) are clamoring for it, like the QE addicts they are.
However in order for this to be done without a huge uproar from the public, the appearance of some sort of crisis will be required. Whether it is the narrative of exploding Coronavirus, horrible second quarter earnings, high evictions and unemployment rate, something will be used to have the SPX correct back to somewhere in the 2700's and then they will unleash the money printer again.
There will be another massive fiscal and possibly monetary stimulus here in the next few months. The banks, especially JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs which are closest to the Fed and Government (Mnuchin, Powell are ex-goldman boys) are clamoring for it, like the QE addicts they are.
However in order for this to be done without a huge uproar from the public, the appearance of some sort of crisis will be required. Whether it is the narrative of exploding Coronavirus, horrible second quarter earnings, high evictions and unemployment rate, something will be used to have the SPX correct back to somewhere in the 2700's and then they will unleash the money printer again.
great post, thanks for stopping by!
Bob Knights Liver said:
The downside being the stock or the market as a whole moving against you. So what would be a way to hedge these? Check for some Sept-Nov puts to buy for less than the call you sell? Or some hedges of SPX?
I just look at it as the same risk as buying a stock or an option. I could be missing something though, I often do.
Thank you,I concur with a lot of that.aggiedaniel06 said:
So this is pure speculation on my part.
There will be another massive fiscal and possibly monetary stimulus here in the next few months. The banks, especially JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs which are closest to the Fed and Government (Mnuchin, Powell are ex-goldman boys) are clamoring for it, like the QE addicts they are.
However in order for this to be done without a huge uproar from the public, the appearance of some sort of crisis will be required. Whether it is the narrative of exploding Coronavirus, horrible second quarter earnings, high evictions and unemployment rate, something will be used to have the SPX correct back to somewhere in the 2700's and then they will unleash the money printer again.
Most of the run up prior to earnings makes this a sell the news type of event when companies begin to report, imo. Some of these stocks are even higher than pre=covid.
If they don't extend the $600/mo unemployment that expires in 3 weeks will not be a market positive.
This is anecdotal, but a good friend of mine's daughter is getting these huge payments and she believes it's not going away and has said, "I make more now then I was working". She's also been spending this extra "pay" on bs instead of saving it.
You're right, the markets are on a cocaine bender, imo.
Sign me the F up for that.aggiedaniel06 said:
So this is pure speculation on my part.
There will be another massive fiscal and possibly monetary stimulus here in the next few months. The banks, especially JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs which are closest to the Fed and Government (Mnuchin, Powell are ex-goldman boys) are clamoring for it, like the QE addicts they are.
However in order for this to be done without a huge uproar from the public, the appearance of some sort of crisis will be required. Whether it is the narrative of exploding Coronavirus, horrible second quarter earnings, high evictions and unemployment rate, something will be used to have the SPX correct back to somewhere in the 2700's and then they will unleash the money printer again.
Prognightmare said:Thank you,I concur with a lot of that.aggiedaniel06 said:
So this is pure speculation on my part.
There will be another massive fiscal and possibly monetary stimulus here in the next few months. The banks, especially JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs which are closest to the Fed and Government (Mnuchin, Powell are ex-goldman boys) are clamoring for it, like the QE addicts they are.
However in order for this to be done without a huge uproar from the public, the appearance of some sort of crisis will be required. Whether it is the narrative of exploding Coronavirus, horrible second quarter earnings, high evictions and unemployment rate, something will be used to have the SPX correct back to somewhere in the 2700's and then they will unleash the money printer again.
Most of the run up prior to earnings makes this a sell the news type of event when companies begin to report, imo. Some of these stocks are even higher than pre=covid.
If they don't extend the $600/mo unemployment that expires in 3 weeks will not be a market positive.
This is anecdotal, but a good friend of mine's daughter is getting these huge payments and she believes it's not going away and has said, "I make more now then I was working". She's also been spending this extra "pay" on bs instead of saving it.
You're right, the markets are on a cocaine bender, imo.
I've heard a ton of similar. Not necessarily the overspending but the making more now than when working.
I feel like a few headlines could turn the market down pretty heavily and get the printer going. They're all teed up at the moment anyway
I will be mildly surprised if the $600 isn't extended in some shape or form. Lots of folks, not that guys daughter, are gonna be in trouble without it and the economy may be as well without the spend.
About to finish "Handbook on TA" in OP and 6 chap into "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. Next is "Mastering the Trade" by John Carter.
The TA is obviously huge, but the mental/attitude stuff in Trading in the Zone, has really been influential in exposing my common trading mental flaws. Already a 180 in my perspective on trading. I highly recommend. Today I couldn't help but think about the parallels in doomed traders blaming market and not taking ownership of failures, and the chaos we are seeing today with SJW/victimhood culture. Those people are just as doomed as the traders who stay in a losing trade due to their fundamental analysis and blame market for moving against them. Not to get political, but many good life points about cutting out the emotion and BS in life.
Thanks for all those who rec'd these books and continue educate.
The TA is obviously huge, but the mental/attitude stuff in Trading in the Zone, has really been influential in exposing my common trading mental flaws. Already a 180 in my perspective on trading. I highly recommend. Today I couldn't help but think about the parallels in doomed traders blaming market and not taking ownership of failures, and the chaos we are seeing today with SJW/victimhood culture. Those people are just as doomed as the traders who stay in a losing trade due to their fundamental analysis and blame market for moving against them. Not to get political, but many good life points about cutting out the emotion and BS in life.
Thanks for all those who rec'd these books and continue educate.
Nasdaq futures are red! It cannot be.
Not anymore.
Sorry I missed this and just catching up, I'm in GMT time zone and am usually really busy with family stuff 5:30 pm onwards (11:30 am for most of you in CST). Conveniently for me, most of the action is usually in the first couple of hours and is the window when you want to make almost all of your entries and exits on multi day trades imo.Grown Pear said:
JD calls dipped back down significantly... the 7/17 $65 calls still a good play?
For JD, yes, 63.36 right now premarket and China green today. If that holds and clears, then retest of 64 is almost guaranteed. If it fails, 62.50 or so could be an open bounce play. Yesterday's close was a bit scary, but it never went below my entry at .58. Closed at .62. Today is/was the make or break for that trade. It's getting too close now to expiry for my tastes so today or latest tomorrow I'll be looking to fully exit or roll out a week or more if I think it still has an explosion power setup to 67+. Keep in mind JD is a .98 beta stock so you'll rarely see massive swings like most other stocks discussed here. The good thing is that if you think it is due a big move, options premium is usually a good value!
Since I put this one out there, I'll update the chart here in a bit over lunch, and let you know my plan... need to sort out the final details before open. Like all options trades, they're never easy and almost always have wild swings unless you just get lucky as hell or are day trading which is not my thing.
OSTK going HAM
Holy sh*t. 50 magnet. I had to quit watching it after I deliberated buying under 5 and then under 10. WowzaMcInnis 03 said:
OSTK going HAM
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OSTK up 9x in last 90 days. Please tell me someone got in on that and held.
ZOM back up to 0.18 premarket for anyone that bought the dip last week and wanted a quick 20%
I will be delicately handling this freaking leap and covered call situation I'm in now lolchrisfield said:
OSTK up 9x in last 90 days. Please tell me someone got in on that and held.
NIO has jumped the shark, up to $14.25
Too much fomo in the market right now. Where is all of the money coming from?
BABA pushing 245 right in PM. Who's in this with Barty and I?
DDTGRagoo said:
Too much fomo in the market right now. Where is all of the money coming from?
I look forward to the bubble bursting in some of these stocks, whenever that is. I can not believe the insanity of some of these stocks. Wouldn't touch them with a 10' pole because the moment I do, pop!
Alright, JD 7/17 65 calls... holding premarket 63.30 well so far. Curious what it does here in a hour or so. Here's my game plan.... looking to sell 75% minimum (and probably all) if we approach/touch 64 in the first couple of hours. Should be 1.30+ or so. That's about 125% return for a 3 day trade. Hindsight is always 20/20 and could have made a bit more in only a 1 day trade if sold there Monday. But it still had power breakout potential for big bucks if it followed through yesterday but it didn't. So now, need to take all the 7/17s off today or tomorrow. A double plus is a successful trade no matter what. Even if it stalls here around 63.30 or dips, you can still likely get out for $1 or so and still have made money.
Now on to it's potential over the next week or so. JD has a recent history of stalled breakouts where it breaks out, stalls and dips for a few days to back test breakout level, and THEN explodes over 2-3 days. I've circled an instance of that in early April when it broke the pennant up a couple bucks, sideways 2-3 days, then BOOM. So that would be the next play IF you see it touch 64 today, retreat back briefly back under 63, maybe under 62.50. I'd take at least a portion of the first trade profit and look for 66s out to 7/24 (~$1) or 67s for around $.75. I really like to enter options priced in the $.50 - 1.50 range due to risk/reward profiles.
So here's the chart. Early July setup so far looks really close to early April. Even the volume profiles are matching up. I think it may have one more power move in it to touch that upper channel trend line in yellow before a retreat for a while. That's around $69 target, $70 max. So if you're net free on the 7/17s, you have a high reward upside to let them ride. But if we break under yesterday's low at any point, I'd unload them all.
Now on to it's potential over the next week or so. JD has a recent history of stalled breakouts where it breaks out, stalls and dips for a few days to back test breakout level, and THEN explodes over 2-3 days. I've circled an instance of that in early April when it broke the pennant up a couple bucks, sideways 2-3 days, then BOOM. So that would be the next play IF you see it touch 64 today, retreat back briefly back under 63, maybe under 62.50. I'd take at least a portion of the first trade profit and look for 66s out to 7/24 (~$1) or 67s for around $.75. I really like to enter options priced in the $.50 - 1.50 range due to risk/reward profiles.
So here's the chart. Early July setup so far looks really close to early April. Even the volume profiles are matching up. I think it may have one more power move in it to touch that upper channel trend line in yellow before a retreat for a while. That's around $69 target, $70 max. So if you're net free on the 7/17s, you have a high reward upside to let them ride. But if we break under yesterday's low at any point, I'd unload them all.
Do me a solid and buy some SPYCarlo4 said:
I look forward to the bubble bursting in some of these stocks, whenever that is. I can not believe the insanity of some of these stocks. Wouldn't touch them with a 10' pole because the moment I do, pop!
I'm having some massive FOMO on it. It was such a great set up but didn't have time to study it too much. Congrats, big big breakout potential now. Just needs to carry JD along with it!McInnis 03 said:
BABA pushing 245 right in PM. Who's in this with Barty and I?
I bought some right at the close yesterday. LVGO looking good also.59 South said:I'm having some massive FOMO on it. It was such a great set up but didn't have time to study it too much. Congrats, big big breakout potential now. Just needs to carry JD along with it!McInnis 03 said:
BABA pushing 245 right in PM. Who's in this with Barty and I?
gougler08 said:
NIO has jumped the shark, up to $14.25
My algorithm which consists solely of me looking at 2 stocks and making a Wag says prepare for a boring day (pending exciting news)
9.5 cover calls. I expect some commission MOFOs. Everytime I sell a cover call i get raped on it. guaranteed rocket ship. Only that hasn't is MGNIE said:gougler08 said:
NIO has jumped the shark, up to $14.25
McInnis 03 said:Do me a solid and buy some SPYCarlo4 said:
I look forward to the bubble bursting in some of these stocks, whenever that is. I can not believe the insanity of some of these stocks. Wouldn't touch them with a 10' pole because the moment I do, pop!
Just did. Let's watch
WMT about to bust 128 too.
Carlo4 said:McInnis 03 said:Do me a solid and buy some SPYCarlo4 said:
I look forward to the bubble bursting in some of these stocks, whenever that is. I can not believe the insanity of some of these stocks. Wouldn't touch them with a 10' pole because the moment I do, pop!
Just did. Let's watch
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