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I moved my 401k allocation to cash when DOW was around 16k, i'm just planning on leaving it there for the time being.

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So you missed out on 12.5% + dividends?

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I moved my 401k allocation to cash when DOW was around 16k, i'm just planning on leaving it there for the time being.

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So you missed out on 12.5% + dividends?

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The old buy high, sell low strategy?

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Oldarmy sure disappeared...

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He posted a while back that he was leaving the country.

You would be wise to stop trying to catch him in an error or wrong prediction. He has been a very successful businessman, selling companies for a bunch of money and now investing with said money. He travels, a lot, gives back, and trades nearly full time while Stateside. Further, he hasn't been wrong. He correctly predicted where this upside would go to and be choppy, in the 17,500 range, which it has been for weeks. He did this while the DOW was firmly established below 17,000. He also said he would post when the top was reached, he hasn't posted that yet.

Well hello. I'm back and would still be surprised to see us break out to new highs but that's why they call it a market. I can only give you confirmation when it's reversed and there are over half of my indicators still needing to hit. Heaven help us if we have, in essence, a double top to pair against that double bottom.

Common sense at these levels would be to position short/puts on up days above 18k and that's all I've done. However, I cover/sell those puts on a day like today simply because I have no pure signal of a top. As long as you get days like today to take profits then you can keep repeating the strategy with profit protection and an extremely easy exit point, that being the markets breaking to new highs. Otherwise we wait for confirmation of a reversal and then short/buy puts with high confidence that they will be pure winners.

I have a data set that runs every weekend and will share some of those points of impact this weekend, if I have time.

Happy trading!

p.s. I am a full fledged, unapologetic young earth creationist. While that neither helps nor hinders my financial studies I believe science to be the study of God's amazing design. Man's desire to want to know how we came to be is a noble cause. I simply think the Universe was created perfectly ticking over a 6 day period. This leaves a never ending debate over evidence, which can most certainly be used to hypothesize a million "what if" scenarios but it does not eliminate the possibility that the extrapolation of what that evidence might have required to reach point A is 100% fact. I always enjoy the 100 foot candle analogy whereby you discover it burning. You calculate with great accuracy the burn rates, materials making up the candle, external variables of oxygen, etc. You take all of that and science would be able to state how tall the candle would have been 100, 1000, 1M years ago.. But it wouldn't explain when it was lit and if the conditions had remained static over that period. You can see the scientist publishing studies showing scientifically how this candle was formed "x" years ago. Then the candle maker shows up and says I just lit it 6 days ago. The science wasn't flawed - the extrapolation is simply incorrect due to an alternate reality. It's not magic. It might not even be what the purest characterized as "fair". It simply is what it is as far as I'm concerned.

Sir Issac Newton had a working model of the then known planetary system. One day an agnostic visited him and in amazement upon seeing the working model asked Newton who made it. Newton quipped "Nobody". The man became put off and asked Newton again and received the same reply. Visibly upset the man challenged Newton by saying of course someone made it and I demand to know who! Newton stated, and I'm paraphrasing: You believe that this tiny representation of a much larger work must have a designer yet you doubt that the original has neither a design nor a maker!

I think he was onto something. The clock was formed perfectly ticking and, while I enjoy and respect the sciences, they are forever going to miss the mark when trying to see beyond the clocks start date.

http://www3.gettysburg.edu/~tshannon/hist106web/site6/sir_isaac_newton.htm

I'll not use this forum to debate the topic, and I find it queer that anyone would seek to make a point about my beliefs on a finance forum. Headed off to dinner singing "Let it go! Let it go!...