0708aggie said:

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why would you sell puts there vs buy calls?

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sell put, collect premium. Go long if exercised.

E said:

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stxag8 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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CRM finally!

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I sold about 2 hours ago. You're all welcome

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Do you have any ROKU you could sell right now?

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No but let me know when you get your shorts in and I'll buy some

Sound like it yes, but its most definitely not.

Work related.

Anyone would do that, given the parameters you've set out. Assume there is a catch here though.

Coachbro20 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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CRM finally!

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Any thoughts on an exit number? I bought in at 1.91

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Got my selection of 7/17 puts in now. Not big dollars like some of you, but larger than my normal option trade. Dislike being a Do Not Pass bettor.

Roku finally posting its first two 15min green bars for the day. Need to pull up from here.

Watch SDC just had a push down on sizable 3 min vol but it rebounded back on small volume. Come on break through!

tsuag10 said:

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Speaking of babies....

Just for fun, I put some Jan 2021 calls on PG and JNJ.

Anyone else think there will be a huge baby boom about 40 weeks from the beginning of the shelter-in-place orders?

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Bringing this back up to ask again.

The first shelter in place order was CA on 3/19 and as we know the others followed in the next 2-3 weeks.
We are coming up soon on 12 weeks from 3/19.

Is there any play for a possible baby boom, or am I overestimating the impact of this?

0708aggie said:

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Guys, want your thoughts. I have the chance to get a guaranteed 10% return per year (not a scam) on capital. To do this I would need to borrow lets say $190k. Cost of funds on a 10 year note is 3.62. Would you do it?


Basically end up with a rate arbitrage of 3.55%.

10% * 28% tax rate less 3.62% interest.

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Man hard to say, I want to say yes but still not enough info for me... sorry! You say guaranteed but even "contractually guaranteed" there's still risk (thinking worst case or even just bad case).

If you're in 28% tax bracket you probably deduct and can likely deduct your investment interest expense, unless that's gone away? So that might help your net return

The other side to your opportunity is it's most likely an illiquid investment. There's a lot to be said about maintaining liquidity. Just a thought good luck

Thats what I'm struggling with. Cash is king.

Although, the interest paid each month is enough to cover the princpal and interest on the note, so no cash outlay.

tsuag10 said:

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tsuag10 said:

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Speaking of babies....

Just for fun, I put some Jan 2021 calls on PG and JNJ.

Anyone else think there will be a huge baby boom about 40 weeks from the beginning of the shelter-in-place orders?

---

Bringing this back up to ask again.

The first shelter in place order was CA on 3/19 and as we know the others followed in the next 2-3 weeks.
We are coming up soon on 12 weeks from 3/19.

Is there any play for a possible baby boom, or am I overestimating the impact of this?

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I think there is a very good chance of a baby boom. Question is, what stocks benefit?

Baby formula manufacturers? Car seat manufacturers?

tsuag10 said:

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tsuag10 said:

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Speaking of babies....

Just for fun, I put some Jan 2021 calls on PG and JNJ.

Anyone else think there will be a huge baby boom about 40 weeks from the beginning of the shelter-in-place orders?

---

Bringing this back up to ask again.

The first shelter in place order was CA on 3/19 and as we know the others followed in the next 2-3 weeks.
We are coming up soon on 12 weeks from 3/19.

Is there any play for a possible baby boom, or am I overestimating the impact of this?

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Call me skeptical, but so much of the crap for babies that companies sell aren't necessary And the stuff from JNJ and PG have cheaper alternatives. I think continued frugality from economic struggle mutes any gains made from just baby products, which are only a subset of what those companies produce.

Spy about to get the afternoon party started early today?

$313 here we come!


(positive thinking)

about to give up on AZN

If I had cash right now I'd be looking at vertical spreads or something like it for end of day 312.70 SPY.

AgEng06 said:

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$313 here we come!


(positive thinking)

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is there a game plan for $313? I read something about a flash to $315 and to ditch all long holdings... so I kind of have been rooting for all my calls against the SPY.

Pretty sizeable BAC near term call blocks just went off. Been pretty steady calls on it most of the day.

willjohnathan said:

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AgEng06 said:

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$313 here we come!


(positive thinking)

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is there a game plan for $313? I read something about a flash to $315 and to ditch all long holdings... so I kind of have been rooting for all my calls against the SPY.

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here it is from earlier :

Quote:

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oldarmy1 8:29aAG
Everyone remember that $313 with flash to $315 is just a number. It happens to be

my number for being gone from all short term trades unless I see a lagger

opportunity. It happens in the blink of an eye, so think through and have your

strategies in place.

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OA, does the music stop for CRM calls once spy hits 313? Even if it is working its way up to 182.5 for june19?

Selling a covered call here RUBI 6/19 @ 0.65

oldarmy1 said:

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I was down 6 figures on ROKU and am now net green against covered calls. Never give up!

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I assume this wasn't done through just one covered call. What's your method of choosing the Contract Date and Strike price to ensure you don't get assigned?

Anyone else starting to buy up a little TVIX? Just started buying as we approach the 313 level for SPY. I know i've been playing with fire while wearing gloves soaked in gasoline, but I made $1,300 day trading TVIX last week. Just waiting for a moment again for a quick spike, which I"m guessing is coming as we get closer...

NVM... answered my own question

TecRecAg said:

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tsuag10 said:

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tsuag10 said:

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Speaking of babies....

Just for fun, I put some Jan 2021 calls on PG and JNJ.

Anyone else think there will be a huge baby boom about 40 weeks from the beginning of the shelter-in-place orders?

---

Bringing this back up to ask again.

The first shelter in place order was CA on 3/19 and as we know the others followed in the next 2-3 weeks.
We are coming up soon on 12 weeks from 3/19.

Is there any play for a possible baby boom, or am I overestimating the impact of this?

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As a guy who has been at home with two kids under 3YO, I'm going to assume that all babies born in 40 weeks from lockdown will be first kids in their family.

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And as a guy with 3 kids under 4 (the 3rd kid born days before the shelter in place orders began), I emphatically agree!

They will either be 1st kids or "oops" kids.