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21,521,654 Views | 223304 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by ProgN
ProgN
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I laughed at that too. I also believe if China announced a 6.8% contraction that it was really 13% or more.
AggiePeeps06
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AG
This is very frustrating for folks who have done everything right in terms of being smart with investments and saving for opportunities like this in the markets... just to have the Fed artificially prop up every market in the country. This punishes people For responsible financial behaviors. Why does anyone have any incentive to invest and save responsibly when you'll just get bailed out by the Fed every time there is a crisis?

In my case, I'm looking to buy a house and doesn't appear we'll even have a dip in real estate unless there's a second downturn and the Fed for some reason sits on their hands.

Maybe it's too early? But I don't see how any news would take down the marker at this point with the ammunition the Fed is using, which appears limitless. There will be some consequence to this down the road, just not sure what it is yet.
the last of the bohemians
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The 62% retrace seems to be lining up with several digital tech plays reaching their pre virus peak.
And then you have Amazon setting new highs.
It's a tech world.
khaos288
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AG
Prognightmare said:

spud1910 said:

Prognightmare said:


What bad news could come out to scare the markets? None.
@realDonaldTrump
He could only kill the market if he shutdown the economy again, and he won't. He knows he needs a strong market and economy for November.


I honestly think the handling of the virus is more important than a strong economy in November. If somehow a bunch of Americans end up dead, media will scream about how it's his fault, and the wealthy elite are profiting. That'd be an easy story to spin.

Although I still think Biden is damn near unelectable, dude is a creep, and senile.
thirdcoast
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AG
Yes, it's too early.
OverSeas AG
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AG
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
DON'T TREAD ON ME
spud1910
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AG
Prognightmare said:

spud1910 said:

Prognightmare said:


What bad news could come out to scare the markets? None.
@realDonaldTrump
He could only kill the market if he shutdown the economy again, and he won't. He knows he needs a strong market and economy for November.
I hope you are right. It seemed like he caught me by surprise a number of times last year!
Ragoo
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AG
Punished? How so? If you did the right thing shouldn't your investments appreciate?
Exsurge Domine
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AggiePeeps06 said:

This is very frustrating for folks who have done everything right in terms of being smart with investments and saving for opportunities like this in the markets... just to have the Fed artificially prop up every market in the country. This punishes people For responsible financial behaviors. Why does anyone have any incentive to invest and save responsibly when you'll just get bailed out by the Fed every time there is a crisis?

In my case, I'm looking to buy a house and doesn't appear we'll even have a dip in real estate unless there's a second downturn and the Fed for some reason sits on their hands.

Maybe it's too early? But I don't see how any news would take down the marker at this point with the ammunition the Fed is using, which appears limitless. There will be some consequence to this down the road, just not sure what it is yet.


I think there will be a massive dip in real estate. Why don't you think so?
texagbeliever
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Odd take. The fed propping up the markets are keeping people's nest eggs alive. Further by keeping companies funded they are building up a pent up demand for goods. This will increase the desire for people to go out and overcome the Corona fear and spend those dolla bills. If this just causes us to face a recoil at say 2750 down to 2550, that would be much better than to chug around at 22/2300 for months. Unless you try to time the market and but at the 2750.

Just my view.
ProgN
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I believe hospitals are prepared for any flare up down the road. He's putting opening up states with the governors. This would give plausible deniability. Doesn't really matter, lines have been drawn and everyone knows who they're voting for already. No one from either camp is going to jump to the other because of headlines.
ProgN
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That was in regards to the trade war with China. You won't have those before November.

I wouldn't want to be China if he's re-elected though.
OverSeas AG
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AG
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
DON'T TREAD ON ME
Carlo4
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AG
Bob Knights Liver said:

Yeah futures just hit 2880. Wasn't that close to an Elliot wave min that corresponded to some meaningful fibonacci level? I know there are technicals on here that know this stuff.
S&P 500

2881 as of this moment
50% was 2787 roughly
61.8% is 2933 roughly
50 day EMA is around 2957

There is a huge gap to fill upward if the S&P hit 2860, which it has. Not sure if these crazy futures are part of it.

Nasdaq

8,941 as of this moment
50% was 8,188 roughly
61.8 was 8,653 roughly
Resistance appears to be around 9000 level. This is why I bought some SQQQ again to see if it would bounce off it. If it breaks, all time highs coming.

DJIA

24,270 as of this moment
Ehh who cares
AggiePeeps06
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AG
Emergency fund of 6 months - 1 year and sitting on cash waiting for the right opportunity. Although I did put a good chunk down in the market but ate up some of my gains with options haha
khaos288
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AG
Yeah I really don't think it will matter. Like I said earlier, they can't keep people inside any longer. If hospitals are prepared, and it doesn't flare up that bad? We'll hit a crazy run. The whole point was to flatten the curve, and that had definitely been accomplished to some degree. Time to roll the dice and open it up.
McInnis 03
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AG
Xi
Carlo4
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Russel 2000 is the interesting one of these. It's not "participating" in the same positive results as the others.

Retraced exactly 38.2%, bounced down, and, as of now with the overnight gains, is within .7 points of that 38.2% retracement. It is way behind the three main indexes.
AggiePeeps06
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AG
I also probably should clarify, I'm mainly talking about Hard assets, not liquid like the stock market. I am exposed to the stock market and am happy to have made back most of my losses.

However, if you're sitting on cash as savings for a house (or investment into real estate in general) or emergency fund, you're being punished for that. Which is completely backwards.

Discounts show up later in hard assets but not if the Fed props everything up with a backstop.
ProgN
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AggiePeeps06 said:

Emergency fund of 6 months - 1 year and sitting on cash waiting for the right opportunity. Although I did put a good chunk down in the market but ate up some of my gains with options haha
I wouldn't play options with the future house money. I'd probably just by XOM and forget about it because it will be above $40 in 6 months to a year. Or maybe look at BBY under $60 on the next pullback. JMO
Exsurge Domine
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Party City Stock. Trading at .40, down from $7.50 last year and $3.00 in mid Feb. I'm thinking graduation parties and celebrations this summer.

July 17 1c for .10, seems like a pretty good deal. Throw 1,000 bucks at it, it goes up to $3 and you make $20k
Spaceship
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AG
Exsurge Domine said:

Party City Stock. Trading at .40, down from $7.50 last year and $3.00 in mid Feb. I'm thinking graduation parties and celebrations this summer.

July 17 1c for .10, seems like a pretty good deal. Throw 1,000 bucks at it, it goes up to $3 and you make $20k

What's their financial story? They seem like one of those dying retailers to e-Commerce in good times...can't imagine they are in very good shape right now.
Ranger222
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AG
And like others have mentioned a couple pages back now, what happens when the Feds start to wean the market off when things actually improve...are we going to get a Dec 2018 reaction? Get pissy about interest rate hikes again? I'm happy that most of my longterm investments are right back to January 2020 levels, but there will be a day of reckoning somewhere...used to think guys like Chris Irons (QuoteTheRaven) and his podcast guests were just super paranoid but starting to agree with them this is not sustainable. Sometimes its okay to let overleveraged companies die...or just restructured in bankruptcy while the board still walks away with nice pocket change.

What can you do but follow the price action? I'm not mad that stocks like NFLX or AMZN are making new highs...makes a lot of sense that market leaders are leading....but even when this thing opens up it doesn't mean business goes back to Feb 2020 levels....consumer habits will changed. They changed before the lockdown --



I'm not convinced everyone will just be back to business as usual...some will and thats fine. But I'm not going to movie theatres anytime soon. I need to travel end of May but don't want to. I still won't eat out. Take out yes, but you won't find me dining in. Not everyone shares my views, but some proportion do and that will effect revs well into the summer....multiple earning seasons for some companies wrecked....others will be unfazed as they should be

Really interested to see what happens when real earnings start coming out around the corner. Sometimes good reports are sold off. We gonna buy these disgusting numbers we are about to see now? LMAO.

HoustonAg2014
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AG
AggiePeeps06 said:

I also probably should clarify, I'm mainly talking about Hard assets, not liquid like the stock market. I am exposed to the stock market and am happy to have made back most of my losses.

However, if you're sitting on cash as savings for a house (or investment into real estate in general) or emergency fund, you're being punished for that. Which is completely backwards.

Discounts show up later in hard assets but not if the Fed props everything up with a backstop.


If you live in Texas, you are going to have an opportunity very soon. Trust me lol. I'm somewhat in the same situation. Sadly it will be at the expense of many others but you can't help that.
Ranger222
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When you don't follow the GILD call action :

Quote:

They did just that at 430pm today when the low profile Statnews published a report by Adam Feuerstein, best known for doing the bidding of one or more hedge fund clients, according to which a "Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead Sciences' antiviral medicine remdesivir in a closely watched clinical trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week, STAT has learned."

"Learned" from whom? A hedge fund or two who were long GILD and needed a fake news catalyst to get out? Because last time we checked, double blind, secret drug trials are, er... secret.

It wasn't until the news was reported by CNBC about 30 minutes later - and hit the retail investing audience - that GILD stock soared 16 and the entire market took off as if someone had suddenly discovered not only a cure but also a vaccine for coronavirus.

Alas, neither happened, and as it has done on numerous occasions previously, about three hours after the news broke conveniently providing one or more hedge funds ample opportunity to offload their position in the thin after hours market, Gilead issued a statement which suggested that STAT was pumping the stock based on nothing more than "anecdotal reports" to wit:

And so, one more attempt to ramp the market using fake news of an imminent drug has failed, with some observing that a Phase 1 drug trial is now the functional equivalent of a Phase 1 trade deal - both meaningless on their own, but with the power to send stocks surging when used tactically by unknown players.

And while stocks soared to new one month highs on the initial overhyped news of a trial that has not yet even concluded amid the latest powerful short squeeze, the rally has since reversed even if the drop has a long way to go before it fills the gap. Meanwhile, stocks are now the most overvalued ever, ever on the basis of forward multiples.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/gilead-pours-cold-water-report-sent-market-soaring-anecdotal-reports-no-statistical-power
jj9000
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This doesn't surprise me at all.

You can go over to Forum 16 or the Coronavirus board and understand Remdisivir works on 'some' patients. I've slept since February, but, if I remember correctly, the overall mortality rate using Remdisivir was still ~1-2%.
Exsurge Domine
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jj9000 said:

This doesn't surprise me at all.

You can go over to Forum 16 or the Coronavirus board and understand Remdisivir works on 'some' patients. I've slept since February, but, if I remember correctly, the overall mortality rate using Remdisivir was still ~1-2%.


From what I've heard, 80% of patients don't make it off the ventilator once they're on. In a study in the NEJM, 65% or so got off the ventilator on Remdesivir
AggiePeeps06
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Fed buying mortgage bonds is the main reason. They are also about to bailout mortgage servicers. I can see why they would bail out the servicers though... if they didn't the entire housing market would collapse.
AggiePeeps06
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AG
Thanks! Yea definitely not playing with the house money. I've got that segmented out and am waiting on real estate prices to dip.
Exsurge Domine
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AggiePeeps06 said:

Fed buying mortgage bonds is the main reason. They are also about to bailout mortgage servicers. I can see why they would bail out the servicers though... if they didn't the entire housing market would collapse.


They better do it soon! I need LADR over 7.50 by mid may!!!
McInnis 03
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Who's buying GILD puts at open
AggiePeeps06
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What makes you so confident? Definitely don't want others to suffer but a pullback in prices just makes sense (even before the current shock)
AggiePeeps06
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AG
It's already happening.
Brewmaster
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Aggiesincebirth said:

AggiePeeps06 said:

I also probably should clarify, I'm mainly talking about Hard assets, not liquid like the stock market. I am exposed to the stock market and am happy to have made back most of my losses.

However, if you're sitting on cash as savings for a house (or investment into real estate in general) or emergency fund, you're being punished for that. Which is completely backwards.

Discounts show up later in hard assets but not if the Fed props everything up with a backstop.


If you live in Texas, you are going to have an opportunity very soon. Trust me lol. I'm somewhat in the same situation. Sadly it will be at the expense of many others but you can't help that.
Texas is a unique beast. I don't think it's as simple as saying real estate here will drop like the rest of the country. We bought a house in the Austin area in '08 and I don't remember seeing any great deals! In B/CS now and we bought 5 years ago, before the prices rocketed up a bit. Demand here is sky high and Austin has people moving there right and left.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I'm losing hope there will be a rug pull. Feels like there is something every day to juice the market. Maybe we see 2600? We may not see 2700 again if the Fed keeps pumping.

Bad news of any kind is discarded and minor good news is trumpeted like Jesus has returned. Is there such a thing as toxic positivity?
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