jj9000 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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there is no logic showing up anywhere in the reaction to things, but here's my take:

There could be a wave 2 when the public relaxes because of the belief of a treatment

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This is key, and what everyone is looking past in their exuberance.

By opening back up, the virus will take off. It's not an uncertain. It's a guarantee.

The real question is how much we shut down when the virus spreads. I get the notion that people are happy to get back to "normal", I just don't think people have digested the other side of this pandemic. They won't until they see the death toll.

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You are probably wrong about a legit re-infection, but I guarantee the entire media will be pushing your same point. Even Pelosi (who thought it was so safe she encouraged people to go to China Town) will be pushing the narrative it's not safe.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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I think we will run up to 2880 tomorrow and then start our march back to 2600 next week.

If we go back to 2200 again I'll streak downtown Austin wearing only a bikini made from $100 bills.

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We might run tomorrow, but I bet Friday is a rug pull after this strong green week. Markets could use a cool off anyway.

texagbeliever said:

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I get that oil prices will likely not respond much to the news. I guess the banks could have some hang over after bad debt announcements and tighter lending resteictions?

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With the US, EU opening back up, then demand will follow. Summer driving season should be strong with lower prices and people being caged so long. So all that should help oil.

The banks are better capitalized than they were in 08 and with people going back to work the risk in those should decrease. Plus the fed is backstopping them, so that's some powerful insurance.

These were two suggestions for mid to long term holds, not a trade.

I've been instructed to short all rips in a bear market

BREwmaster said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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I think we will run up to 2880 tomorrow and then start our march back to 2600 next week.

If we go back to 2200 again I'll streak downtown Austin wearing only a bikini made from $100 bills.

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We might run tomorrow, but I bet Friday is a rug pull after this strong green week. Markets could use a cool off anyway.

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I wouldn't mind a rug pull because I still have some SPY puts for next week but I'm not sure we get it tomorrow. What bad news could come out to scare the markets? None. I fear people will wake up and see the market surging and FOMO kicks in and adds fuel to the fire for tomorrow.

NRD09 said:

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I've been instructed to short all rips in a bear market

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We're getting into more of the buy the dips territory now.

What's going on with MBRX? Conference call said it's 100% effective at stopping coronavirus replication in-vitro, as well as brain tumors.....stock went down 20%

Thanks, I was just trying to put the logic down that I thought supported your statement. I agree those would be on the longer side to payoff.

Also my comment on oil was that that would stick the stocks down longer.

thirdcoast said:

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jj9000 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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there is no logic showing up anywhere in the reaction to things, but here's my take:

There could be a wave 2 when the public relaxes because of the belief of a treatment

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This is key, and what everyone is looking past in their exuberance.

By opening back up, the virus will take off. It's not an uncertain. It's a guarantee.

The real question is how much we shut down when the virus spreads. I get the notion that people are happy to get back to "normal", I just don't think people have digested the other side of this pandemic. They won't until they see the death toll.

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You are probably wrong about a legit re-infection, but I guarantee the entire media will be pushing your same point. Even Pelosi (who thought it was so safe she encouraged people to go to China Town) will be pushing the narrative it's not safe.

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It's not a re-infection. It's still the first go-round.

It's not a narrative. People are forgetting the reason for the shutdown was so the hospitals could time to ramp for inpatients by flattening the curve. There was a trade-off. Now we're at the point in which we let the virus in, and people will, in fact, die.

I've been saying 'what next' for quite a while. In other words, we somewhat flattened the curve.

What comes next with a re-opening?

I don't think it's possible to keep the lockdown on. People are too impatient these days, and are too worried about the economy crumbling due to an elongated dead period vs some body bags due to another pop of infections.

My guess is that we have two more lockdowns. This will be the highest death toll. Then they'll get progressively smaller after each lock down ends.

That's our chance to test lows again when the death toll climbs and we go back on lockdown. Not sure that'll happen any more though with how counter the market seems to logic now.

texagbeliever said:

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Thanks, I was just trying to put the logic down that I thought supported your statement. I agree those would be on the longer side to payoff.

Also my comment on oil was that that would stick the stocks down longer.

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If global demand increase and with the announced oil cuts, oil will be going higher.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

I agree but I dont see it jumping overnight. I'm trying not to catch shooting stars.

Uh, it's a "re-opening" at the discretion of state and municipal discretion. Phased with tons of precautions, and at-risk folks told to stay at home. It's not a light switch full bore opening in areas with limited hospital capacity.

Maybe you are right, but I think you are wrong, just like gov Cuomo was wrong about NYC ventilator needs. We got enough ICU beds and ventaliators capacity on call thanks to the over reaction. Antibody test pumping out in 10s of millions. So maybe 60-80% of economy back online, which is way less than Feb.

texagbeliever said:

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I agree but I dont see it jumping overnight. I'm trying not to catch shooting stars.

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I wasn't implying an overnight jump, but I can see oil getting to $32-35 fairly quickly.

Prognightmare said:

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texagbeliever said:

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I agree but I dont see it jumping overnight. I'm trying not to catch shooting stars.

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I wasn't implying an overnight jump, but I can see oil getting to $32-35 fairly quickly.

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Got some USO June calls pretty cheap at 6 strike. I think $32-35 gets me there

Can feel the FOMO creeping in meaning it's probably time to scale out

claym711 said:

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2700-2800 is where I thought we'd sell off. Saw a lot of similarities to oct/nov 08. Now at 2900. Vix is still at 40 and I did reallocate back out of equities yesterday, but as of last Thursday there isn't anything left that the fed hasn't backstopped - and there have been enough whispers to know they'll buy SPY if they need to. The market is disconnected from the economy. Not sure how long that lasts. I expect a sell off but am not betting Too hard on it at this point, market can stay irrational longer than I can hold futures shorts. I have some 220 July puts and am edging out of equities in long term holdings.

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I agree with you that the market has artificially decoupled from reality regarding the economy. If you held a gun to my head, I don't think we revisit the lows until the Fed begins to remove the stimulus and the market goes into sugar withdrawals. IMO, a hyper bubble is coming and fighting it is just insanity. I looking at things to buy on the dips instead of going with puts or outright shorting. The fed said they won't tighten until they see signs of inflation and they don't expect it for the rest of this year. Might as well profit from the insanity. I sold some of this weeks puts earlier this week for a loss and I'm down on my puts for next week that I'll probably sell tuesday for a loss. I just think buying the dips may be the way to go for a few months.

Didn't even phase the futures.

Don't think we will see another shutdown like we've seen the last 30 days. Planning for an economy that operates with a governor on it for the foreseeable future (several months). Think metro areas will find it more difficult to go from phase 1 to 2 than they think and even harder to go from 2 to 3.

Not thinking there will be a second spike in cases and deaths before next fall. Impossible to have even a wild guess for anything past mid September. Between now and then see a low but steady case/death count. But even averaging 500 deaths every day becomes an ugly number by mid September.

As for the market I was on record here as saying retest 2400, but I'm moving that up to 2500. Now if I'm wrong and there is a surge in deaths and a second shutdown then you guys who predicted we would retest 2200 could be right.
Best of luck!

I think buying some way OTM late May or June puts any day this thing is skyrocketing can be a good play. Plenty of time for the worm to turn and this thing go south, so especially as I'm getting more and more back into this market I'm looking for times to get in cheap hedges to the downside. Likely wasting money but if some payout big it can be worth the risk.

Prognightmare said:

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What bad news could come out to scare the markets? None.

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@realDonaldTrump

Yeah futures just hit 2880. Wasn't that close to an Elliot wave min that corresponded to some meaningful fibonacci level? I know there are technicals on here that know this stuff.

Only more good news and FOMO can stop this rally. I think we may get it soon. Cramer is on the verge of urging his viewers to jump back in.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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I think buying some way OTM late May or June puts any day this thing is skyrocketing can be a good play. Plenty of time for the worm to turn and this thing go south, so especially as I'm getting more and more back into this market I'm looking for times to get in cheap hedges to the downside. Likely wasting money but if some payout big it can be worth the risk.

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I'm not arguing with your logic. But you have to ask yourself, what negative news could come out to send the markets lower? Horrible jobless claims? Nope, we've rallied 4 weeks in row on Thursday. Bad earnings? Nope, several companies today announced they will no longer give guidance for this year. Covid deaths? Nope, they appear to be decreasing in NY and new drugs showing promise? Prolonged shutdown? Maybe, depends on the governors in those states. I see pullbacks, regroup and rallies as the US begins to reopen. I'm not saying I'm right and you're wrong, this market is crazy and I don't want anyone to lose. I'd avoid buying puts on the monsters though, that would be firing a bb at a freight train, imo.

Prognightmare said:

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Didn't even phase the futures.

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Favorite part of the article " Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted China's GDP would shrink by 6.5% in the January to March quarter, compared to a year ago. The forecasts from 57 analysts polled ranged from a 28.9% contraction to a 4% expansion"

Who the hell forecasted a 4% expansion??

khaos288 said:

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Yeah we've entered bizzaro world. There is no bad news that can stop the momentum in the short term. A mass grave with Trump inside of it as they unmask the old janitor doing his press conferences scooby doo style would net 2% SPY bump.

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This is TexAgs whale action

spud1910 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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What bad news could come out to scare the markets? None.

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@realDonaldTrump

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He could only kill the market if he shutdown the economy again, and he won't. He knows he needs a strong market and economy for November.