Here is why I think this is different than past bear markets, even the 2008 bear. 2008 is the only other time the Fed did anything similar to today. But back then it was a smaller amount and they did it over 6 months. Plus lots of investors weren't sure what they were doing would work so they kept selling.

They have already thrown trillions at the markets in just one month. And made it clear they will throw however many trillions it takes during 2Q to keep this market up. I don't recommend trying to fight the Fed. They will break you.

Ragoo said:

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GreasenUSA said:

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It's pretty much the same thing I've been saying when people on this thread think Disney+ is a huge boon currently. NFLX is still in much better shape for that portion of the business. Disney+ just simply isn't good enough yet.

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disney+ should be straight free cash flow for DIS. They own all of the content and presumably profited off of it originally. They just pay server space and maintenance of that content. Should be a homer in for them. How is it not profitable?

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If they were just relying off of legacy content, that might be true. But I imagine the costs of new content for what they are trying to do is pretty costly.

Disney is making some Disney content only available on Disney+. All of their Marvel and Star Wars spinoffs will be one + and they don't dump all the episodes at once for binge watching. They do standard weekly releases similar to cable

GreasenUSA said:

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Ragoo said:

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GreasenUSA said:

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It's pretty much the same thing I've been saying when people on this thread think Disney+ is a huge boon currently. NFLX is still in much better shape for that portion of the business. Disney+ just simply isn't good enough yet.

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disney+ should be straight free cash flow for DIS. They own all of the content and presumably profited off of it originally. They just pay server space and maintenance of that content. Should be a homer in for them. How is it not profitable?

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If they were just relying off of legacy content, that might be true. But I imagine the costs of new content for what they are trying to do is pretty costly.

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yeah fair. We be only been watching legacy stuff, minus Frozen2 and Onward, so I hadn't considered direct to DIS+ content.

khkman22 said:

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What are thoughts on the shutdown negatively affecting Disney+ in one year?

Without the shutdown, it's possible people would have watched a few movies a month and sort of stretch out their viewing. Now it's possible that people will binge watch and watch all the movies they care about before their year subscription ends.

I would think most people signing up still have a cable or streaming subscription of some sort that likely includes Disney channels. So most people won't need to keep it for that purpose either.

I know most people that sign up for these services never cancel, but do you think there's a better chance that people will burn out quicker on the content available on Disney+ compared to other services that produce more original content (that's not already available on people's cable packages)?

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Yes, I've already blown through everything i wanted to see on Disney+ and canceled a few weeks ago. For someone like me (single), there is much better content on Netflix, and (fortunately for Disney) Hulu. But I'm also probably not their top target audience.

Will Meade is a con artist. I don't know why y'all follow him.

IrishTxAggie said:

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The fed can only shoot so much at what will essentially amount to 2-2.5 months of an economic halt for an economy built around consumption.

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How much do you think their limit is for this crisis? I think you'll find my guess is higher than yours. I think if they needed to they could fire out over $10 trillion and no one (politicians, bankers, investors) would call them on it. If you think their credit limit isn't big enough to triumph over this virus then I wish you luck. I shifted from bear to neutral 3 weeks ago.

I see some short term bear opportunities but medium (3 months plus) and long term I'm a bull. I could change my outlook but it would take something major like Trump not getting re-elected for my outlook to change.

redsox34 said:

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Will Meade is a con artist. I don't know why y'all follow him.

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In my short time following him, thanks to this thread, it certainly seems to be the case.

I just think we'll revisit lows and long term it would be healthier for the market to do so. There are a few gaps that were left behind us to get here this fast.

Followed briefly back in the fall but got tired of all his stupid lottery sports parlays he kept posting.

Would y'all expect Roku to act similarly to DIS from last week when they reported their subscriptions were much higher than expected? Big increase AH with slight pull back from the highs pre-market to opening up high for a flash before returning back down to a modest to solid increase on the day?

Basically it's the same story line for the increase and also similar stock price, but DIS ended up pulling back slowly throughout the day and never reached the AH high.

IrishTxAggie said:

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I just think we'll revisit lows and long term it would be healthier for the market to do so. There are a few gaps that were left behind us to get here this fast.

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I'm on this exact boat. This is an opportunity for a lot of businesses to restructure, and present some bad news in earnings. Just blame it on covid, make it to next year and get back on to solid organic growth.

If the big boys miss earnings over the next few weeks then I could see us retesting lows by May

IrishTxAggie said:

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I just think we'll revisit lows and long term it would be healthier for the market to do so. There are a few gaps that were left behind us to get here this fast.

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I hope you're right because I've got a lot of money to invest. And I'm expecting an opportunity between the time Trump announces the shutdown extension, around April 25, and the passing of the 4th relief bill, around May 11.

Trump announced a shutdown?

GreasenUSA said:

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Trump announced a shutdown?

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Read that again. Poster is expecting an announcement in The next 2 weeks.

The current rally feels like a FOMO rally + typical retrace from very sudden contraction.

Re: how far the fed will go, it depends on what they're trying to do. If they're trying to keep asset prices at February highs, they will keep pumping into the tens of trillions. If they're trying to keep small business from failing, they'll be in it at least another $5T. Staving off a depression but allowing a recession will also be in the additional $3-4T range. What I'm upset about is we are allowing zombie companies to exist that should be bankrupt.

I am leaning bearish based on fundamentals but have moved back from my initial Bear hypothesis of the market losing 60% of its value. I could change my mind on this depending on future moves.

If the economy is opened at end of April, I will be watching closely and will develop a full bear posture if a second wave shows up.

The moment the fed starts buying stock equities - and god I hope this doesn't happen, I will go all high risk equities with a rolling put hedge strategy. This will create an asset super bubble that will have brutal downside. Increasing asset prices on government subsidy is not the same as growth. Remember that 2019 was essentially flat for earnings growth and earnings will be down. Other than a cash is trash mindset and nowhere else to put your money to work, it's astounding to me that the market will accept higher multiples on assets for who knows how long.

If we cross 280 again I will buy puts out a couple of weeks at the 265 fib level.

iluvpoker said:

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gougler08 said:

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If the big boys miss earnings over the next few weeks then I could see us retesting lows by May

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Earnings are expected to be crap for 1Q and 2Q so I can't see them knocking the entire market down 20% from today's close.

The biggest risk I see in the next 6 months are a longer shutdown than anticipated (June) or a second wave hits triggering a 2nd shutdown.

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I could see us going down 20%. I don't see us going down 50% from here.

txaggie_08 said:

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GreasenUSA said:

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Trump announced a shutdown?

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Read that again. Poster is expecting an announcement in The next 2 weeks.

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read it again. He said "shutdown extension"

Theory:

There are enough companies in the top 25 of the S&P500 that their positive performance will outweigh the negative of the others. Additionally: Amazon is the tide that lifts all boats.

During this time we collectively are buying a lot off of amazon, but we are buying goods from a wide variety of other companies in the S&P500.

The losers will be small businesses not mega Corp.

I buy it, except 20% unemployment pinches consumption in a big way. That spills over into financial services, autos, etc.

I'm aware of what the poster is stating. Thank you for your assistance in this matter.

Sorry if already posted. Bailout of airlines imminent. Government to partially own AA, Delta, United, Jet Blue, and Southwest. Nothing more than 3% from looks of it.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-airlines/u-s-government-holding-firm-on-airline-aid-plan-could-end-up-with-3-of-american-airlines-idUSKCN21V1VO

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I buy it, except 20% unemployment pinches consumption in a big way. That spills over into financial services, autos, etc.

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Normally you would be right, but with generous UE benefits and an unprecedented extra $3,400 in April for a family of 4 and we are expecting a similar May payment in the stimulus #4 bill after Trump announces the shutdown extension, that's a lot of cash that a lot of consumers will spend. But you're right it won't be spent on new cars.

$3,400 doesn't go far for a family of 4, and isn't it an advance on their 2020 tax returns? I guess I don't believe we will get back to full employment quickly. Some of these jobs will be permanently eliminated and the X factor is the consumer who may take a while to return to their spend thrift ways.

Airlines, hotels, Uber, Lyft, AirBnB, restaurant chains, national retailers, car companies, luxury goods, entertainment venues, oil, construction, fitness clubs, doggie day cares all screwed

iluvpoker said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I buy it, except 20% unemployment pinches consumption in a big way. That spills over into financial services, autos, etc.

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Normally you would be right, but with generous UE benefits and an unprecedented extra $3,400 in April for a family of 4 and we are expecting a similar May payment in the stimulus #4 bill after Trump announces the shutdown extension, that's a lot of cash that a lot of consumers will spend. But you're right it won't be spent on new cars.

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Costco's hit in gas sales got me thinking about the side effects of quarantine for other companies. Women aren't dragging their kids to target to try on clothes. Zillow/Redfin aren't going to be selling as many houses. How much non-grocery/household sales is amazon doing right now? People may get money in their pockets, but a lot more of them are worried about covering their bills and eating at home.

ROKU pumping AH.. +11%

Did we ever figure out a good way to short Commercial mortgages?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-retail-hotel-borrowers-skip-mortgage-payments-trepp.html

OA, is there a play here in roku to the downside ? Dis did this subscriber dance the other day and fell the whole next day