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21,979,613 Views | 224071 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by ProgN
oldarmy1
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AG
If I hadn't had covered calls I would have suffered worse losses than I did. And the few Put hedges turned out to be the largest gainers, for obvious reasons.

You couldn't have convinced me that we would shut the entire country down over a virus if you had 1000 days to do so.

I learned a lesson even after all these years and having gone through H1N1, watching children die, with zero shutdowns or daily fire drills. How this time became the acceptable protocol will always be a point of interest.

I lost heavy 6 figures in initial 2 days but once I heard what was being planned I went heavy Puts and cut the loss by 2/3 in less than 2 days. I didn't get back to even (talking on losses instigated by this event) until that first bottom bounce.

But as usual hard drops present huge gain opportunities and the % net gain now versus pre-corona craziness is 18% higher ROI than I was experiencing. I would have loved to have been smart enough to appreciate what was coming and sold out with full Puts from Day 1.
Exsurge Domine
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oldarmy1 said:

If I hadn't had covered calls I would have suffered worse losses than I did. And the few Put hedges turned out to be the largest gainers, for obvious reasons.

You couldn't have convinced me that we would shut the entire country down over a virus if you had 1000 days to do so.

I learned a lesson even after all these years and having gone through H1N1, watching children die, with zero shutdowns or daily fire drills. How this time became the acceptable protocol will always be a point of interest.

I lost heavy 6 figures in initial 2 days but once I heard what was being planned I went heavy Puts and cut the loss by 2/3 in less than 2 days. I didn't get back to even (talking on losses instigated by this event) until that first bottom bounce.

But as usual hard drops present huge gain opportunities and the % net gain now versus pre-corona craziness is 18% higher ROI than I was experiencing. I would have loved to have been smart enough to appreciate what was coming and sold out with full Puts from Day 1.


I swear to God the instant I hear a whiff of "virus" in the future I'm shorting every casino, cruise line and hotel chain
oldarmy1
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Amen!

gougler08
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Well futures starting out green
khaos288
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gougler08 said:

Well futures starting out green


One more green day is my guess.


No science behind that
Exsurge Domine
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I have to say sneering about retail investors while being one has to be my favorite thing about the coronavirus stock market so far
TheCellarDoor
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So when are we buying spy puts? Y'all have me convinced of the bull trap, but we didn't hit Model T yet. Two trading days left then long weekend!
george1992
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oldarmy1 said:

If I hadn't had covered calls I would have suffered worse losses than I did. And the few Put hedges turned out to be the largest gainers, for obvious reasons.

You couldn't have convinced me that we would shut the entire country down over a virus if you had 1000 days to do so.

I learned a lesson even after all these years and having gone through H1N1, watching children die, with zero shutdowns or daily fire drills. How this time became the acceptable protocol will always be a point of interest.

I lost heavy 6 figures in initial 2 days but once I heard what was being planned I went heavy Puts and cut the loss by 2/3 in less than 2 days. I didn't get back to even (talking on losses instigated by this event) until that first bottom bounce.

But as usual hard drops present huge gain opportunities and the % net gain now versus pre-corona craziness is 18% higher ROI than I was experiencing. I would have loved to have been smart enough to appreciate what was coming and sold out with full Puts from Day 1.
I'm down $850,000 from the highs earlier this year due to the decline in TPL and bad moves on my part during the massive drop (lots of margin yo yo). And I don't have millions to play with. This was $850k out of about $1.6 in marketable securities i had at 2/1/20.

That being said, my initial investment that got me to $1.6 mil and even $2.2 mil at one point was just $250,000. And out of that $250,000 I originally invested I took out $225,000 for other investments in real estate and oil & gas direct investments. So with about $25,000 in net contributions, I'm still sitting on $750,000 in equities. I started investing about 5 years ago FYI.

And I'm adding as much cash as possible every week to get back in on the ride back up. Whenever that might happen. I'm up about $20K so far since my financial collapse and I'm not going to be happy until I get back to where I was before this effin virus screwed me over.
ProgN
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TheCellarDoor said:

So when are we buying spy puts? Y'all have me convinced of the bull trap, but we didn't hit Model T yet. Two trading days left then long weekend!
FWIW, I bought SPY puts at the open and closed them out at the close. If the markets are up at the open, I'm leaning towards doing the same trade. News could make me reevaluate though.
Exsurge Domine
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Futures nosedive
RebAg13
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AG
.5% down a nosedive?
IrishTxAggie
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I've said this before, but for those of you that may be newer; do not pay attention to futures all damn night unless you're trading them. Otherwise it will just cause a bunch of undue anxiety that will **** with your psyche when you start the trading day. Can't tell y'all how many times I'd look at the futures as the last thing on my phone before I rolled over and finally fell asleep or I'd wake up way too early to see the futures even though I wasn't trading them. It will just weigh on you too much.
Exsurge Domine
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RebAg13 said:

.5% down a nosedive?


Weren't they 200 points up?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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khaos288 said:

gougler08 said:

Well futures starting out green


One more green day is my guess.

No science behind that

My guesses: If we open flat we will lose 3 to 4 percent tomorrow. Otherwise we open down a percent or more but then have a short squeeze run up all day tomorrow through Thursday.

The science behind those guesses - I am consuming my last corona beer right now.
RebAg13
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You could totally be right. You're post just got my attention and I checked them out.
IrishTxAggie
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https://instagr.am/p/B-shUJchYYi
thirdcoast
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When OA1's friends want to call him in middle of night, they just check futures volume to see if he is awake.
leoj
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claym711
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Passive investing bubble is on deck as this debt bubble pops out.
the last of the bohemians
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Hmm...an infrastructure deal would create lots of jobs.
Bet that item picks up steam on next big plunge in jobs numbers.
AnyOtherName
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AG
the last of the bohemians said:

Hmm...an infrastructure deal would create lots of jobs.
Bet that item picks up steam on next big plunge in jobs numbers.
If an infrastructure deal does happen... what are buys? CX, X, et al?
IrishTxAggie
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the last of the bohemians said:

Hmm...an infrastructure deal would create lots of jobs.
Bet that item picks up steam on next big plunge in jobs numbers.


FDR WPA 2.0
leoj
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AnyOtherName said:

the last of the bohemians said:

Hmm...an infrastructure deal would create lots of jobs.
Bet that item picks up steam on next big plunge in jobs numbers.
If an infrastructure deal does happen... what are buys? CX, X, et al?


Idk about X. CAT, DE, GWW
reedsterg
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What is the consensus on regional banks vs the big boys? I've been in some form of banking most of my career and feel like the smaller banks could be less exposed to potential mortgage defaults and potentially less oil exposure while benefiting from the SBA program and consumer credit. The interest rates can really only go one direction at this point which will benefit all financial institutions. I have no affiliation with them, but have had my eye CADE as a strong regional play. Does anyone have any input?
cgh1999
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reedsterg said:

What is the consensus on regional banks vs the big boys? I've been in some form of banking most of my career and feel like the smaller banks could be less exposed to potential mortgage defaults and potentially less oil exposure while benefiting from the SBA program and consumer credit. The interest rates can really only go one direction at this point which will benefit all financial institutions. I have no affiliation with them, but have had my eye CADE as a strong regional play. Does anyone have any input?

I'm long CADE and have been since the IPO. They are getting killed for several reasons: 1) heavy PE / M&A loans. Had a couple of big losses and the market killed them with concerns that it could ripple throughout their portfolio. 2) restaurants are a good size chunk of their portfolio (5-8% iirc). 3) energy exposure is roughly 8-10% (mostly downstream and midstream).

They've been beat up worse than most of their peer group. I still like them and bought some September $2.50 calls last week and some additional shares today. IMO, worst case scenario, they get bought by a super regional and I turn $4 into $7. Best case, we get a big backstop from the fed and they catch a few breaks in the PE and restaurant portfolio and get back to $20 in a couple of years...paying a nice dividend along the way.

For clarification- I'm a banker that competes with them, has shared deals with them, and has multiple friends there.
Baby Billy
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I love Regions. Own a lot and recommend it a lot
La Bamba
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IrishTxAggie said:

I've said this before, but for those of you that may be newer; do not pay attention to futures all damn night unless you're trading them. Otherwise it will just cause a bunch of undue anxiety that will **** with your psyche when you start the trading day. Can't tell y'all how many times I'd look at the futures as the last thing on my phone before I rolled over and finally fell asleep or I'd wake up way too early to see the futures even though I wasn't trading them. It will just weigh on you too much.
I know we're not supposed to look at futures...but futures are up 2677 right now. Couldn't help myself.
leoj
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La Bamba said:

IrishTxAggie said:

I've said this before, but for those of you that may be newer; do not pay attention to futures all damn night unless you're trading them. Otherwise it will just cause a bunch of undue anxiety that will **** with your psyche when you start the trading day. Can't tell y'all how many times I'd look at the futures as the last thing on my phone before I rolled over and finally fell asleep or I'd wake up way too early to see the futures even though I wasn't trading them. It will just weigh on you too much.
I know we're not supposed to look at futures...but futures are up 2677 right now. Couldn't help myself.


You see what happens when you don't listen? Down 40 since your post. Smh
La Bamba
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tam2002
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Gonna be interesting to see how we go today and tmr
McInnis 03
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Short the theaters even more?

texagbeliever
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I read this as fear mongering from the post about opening up. Which tells me they are shifting from everyone is going to die during stay at home to everyone will die if we open back up. Which to me means we are getting to the when do we open stage and are past the understand the virus stage.

A may open would likely be a month or 2 ahead of market expectations.
ProgN
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Touchless
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I believe it was you that mentioned the day trading tends to revisit the AH highs and lows. Would you think SPY will open up, head down to revisit the overnight lows and then bounce back up again then? I think I saw it drop 1% or so at some point AH.
claym711
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Long from midnight. Going to be a huge range today.
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