Rice and Fries said:
Pratt and Whitney +Raytheon are furloguhing their entire workforce
Source...?
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Last: 1 hr ago by giddings_ag_06
Source...?
Friend who works at P&W. Said his promotion and big raise are shot too....bmks270 said:Rice and Fries said:
Pratt and Whitney +Raytheon are furloguhing their entire workforce
Source...?
Dow is +2k
Surely this is a sell the news situation
Folks stop watching NFLX? Big reversal candle.
ONTX to report after the bell. Let's see if my downward spiral continues or if there is hope for a recovery.
Great timing right after the close
Tomorrow is going to be interesting on which way we go
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I see dead cats
This is exactly what this board needs more of.. easy to read charts.. all this model T, reverse candle, calls, puts, and the charts with all the little red and green led bar looking things make my head hurt.
Thank you sir and it's time for an adult beverage !!
18%+ so fargeorge1992 said:
ONTX to report after the bell. Let's see if my downward spiral continues or if there is hope for a recovery.
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AG
Today was too green and the politicians are still playing games. About 10min before close I bought a spy 225 put expiring tomorrow for .77, then as it kept dropping placed an order for another at .5, which filled right at the bell. It's not oa-level hedging but if there's no deal by open tomorrow I think we're gonna take a pretty good hit, and if there's a deal we'll run and I'll make money anyway
FTAco07 said:
DAL debt just downgraded to junk by S&P.
My biggest macro theme in this market is going to be the disaster coming in IG and HY corporate debt. The BBB space is currently +/- 25% of the size of the entire HY space. Obviously all of those BBBs aren't going to be downgraded, but many will which will force some holders of that debt to sell.
Who is going to be the buyer of all that newly junk rated paper and what is that going to do to HY spreads? Are HY investors going to sell lower quality paper to upgrade to the fallen angel? Are there going to be buyers for the stuff they are trying to sell? If HY buyers can't seller lower quality paper they can't raise cash to buy the newly downgraded bonds and that could cause huge loses for the groups trying to sell the former IG paper that was assumed safe? A vicious circle of yield blow outs and losses for bond holders.
This isn't a day trading theme, but is my biggest macro concern/thing to watch by far.
You are right on the money with your analysis and you and I are on the same page regarding the upcoming disaster in the bond markets. In fact many smart people have been saying for a while that the biggest asset bubble is in the HY bond markets.
I have already advised all family and friends to get out of IG and HY bond funds in their retirement accounts which they have banked on for Income.
In a nutshell, modern portfolio theory is dead. i.e. bonds no longer trade inversely to stocks. There is nowhere safe to hide for folks in retirement seeking a steady income from safe assets.
Also, please keep posting. Your opinion on the debt markets is excellent.
can somebody with more experience than I explain why companies like P&G or GILD are down even though demand for their products is through the roof. granted they aren't down as bad as the majority of other corps.
not bad for buying back in at .30 yesterdaygougler08 said:18%+ so fargeorge1992 said:
ONTX to report after the bell. Let's see if my downward spiral continues or if there is hope for a recovery.
I'm going to hold out though for a double 
It was risk on today. Take profits or funds out of a defensive name and chase higher beta. Just my guess.
Thank you.
I don't know how LADR became a popular trading stock on this thread, but the below article from the WSJ illustrates what I was saying yesterday.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/citi-could-be-stuck-with-troubled-casino-loan-as-mortgage-market-seizes-up-11585051202?shareToken=st9ba5b5a647e14590a47bb957bc99eeca
LADR, like other commercial loan conduit originators, is sitting on a portfolio of loans that were to be sold in the CMBS market which is no longer functioning. Per the article, AAA CMBS spreads have already blown out from 86bps to 329 meaning every loan they originated and haven't sold yet is underwater by a significant amount. They can keep holding that paper and just take mark to market losses as long as their warehouse lender will work with them, but they aren't making any new loans for a while and aren't selling anything which means no fee revenue coming in. If their warehouse lender calls the line or they breach covenants they are up a creek.
In addition to the loans held for sale, the loans they plan to hold on their balance sheet are all B notes that are levered. Borrowers who work with shops like LADR are typically looking for higher LTV/LTC leverage than banks and certainly Life Co's will provide and the borrower's generally have little to no repayment guarantees. I don't know any specifics, but i'm guessing their last dollar exposure to most of their balance sheet loans is in the 75-85% LTV range. Layer in the debt LADR is using to juice those returns and it doesn't take a ton of missed mortgage payments to wipe that out.
As I've said before, I'm not a trader, but I am very active in the institutional commercial real estate business. For those of you that are traders I would bet these types of companies are much more likely to go to 0 than they are to rebound to prior high's unless the macro situation improves much quicker than most think it will.
I don't know how LADR became a popular trading stock on this thread, but the below article from the WSJ illustrates what I was saying yesterday.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/citi-could-be-stuck-with-troubled-casino-loan-as-mortgage-market-seizes-up-11585051202?shareToken=st9ba5b5a647e14590a47bb957bc99eeca
LADR, like other commercial loan conduit originators, is sitting on a portfolio of loans that were to be sold in the CMBS market which is no longer functioning. Per the article, AAA CMBS spreads have already blown out from 86bps to 329 meaning every loan they originated and haven't sold yet is underwater by a significant amount. They can keep holding that paper and just take mark to market losses as long as their warehouse lender will work with them, but they aren't making any new loans for a while and aren't selling anything which means no fee revenue coming in. If their warehouse lender calls the line or they breach covenants they are up a creek.
In addition to the loans held for sale, the loans they plan to hold on their balance sheet are all B notes that are levered. Borrowers who work with shops like LADR are typically looking for higher LTV/LTC leverage than banks and certainly Life Co's will provide and the borrower's generally have little to no repayment guarantees. I don't know any specifics, but i'm guessing their last dollar exposure to most of their balance sheet loans is in the 75-85% LTV range. Layer in the debt LADR is using to juice those returns and it doesn't take a ton of missed mortgage payments to wipe that out.
As I've said before, I'm not a trader, but I am very active in the institutional commercial real estate business. For those of you that are traders I would bet these types of companies are much more likely to go to 0 than they are to rebound to prior high's unless the macro situation improves much quicker than most think it will.
Take this for what it is, an unverified anecdote, but a family member of mine works in CRE lending for a bank in Dallas. There's talk floating around the Dallas Fed, at the behest of the NY Fed, is pressuring banks to accept 90 days non-payment on mortgage notes as relief for borrowers during this time.
i was talking overall since the start of the drop
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/mortgage-industry-proposes-plan-one-185634045.htmlFitch said:
Take this for what it is, an unverified anecdote, but a family member of mine works in CRE lending for a bank in Dallas. There's talk floating around the Dallas Fed, at the behest of the NY Fed, is pressuring banks to accept 90 days non-payment on mortgage notes as relief for borrowers during this time.
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The ripple effects of this of it were true will be interesting to see unfold through the entire chain.
Because the market is a cold heartless *****. The minute you have her all figured out with reason, she kicks you in the balls, bangs your best friend and steals your dog.hedge_zer0 said:
can somebody with more experience than I explain why companies like P&G or GILD are down even though demand for their products is through the roof. granted they aren't down as bad as the majority of other corps.
Prognightmare said:Because the market is a cold heartless *****. The minute you have her all figured out with reason, she kicks you in the balls, bangs your best friend and steals your dog.hedge_zer0 said:
can somebody with more experience than I explain why companies like P&G or GILD are down even though demand for their products is through the roof. granted they aren't down as bad as the majority of other corps.
So the market is named Heather...after my ex
Random question - I am going to throw a very small amount of money at three companies ($100 each) that are in dire straights right now. Most likely those companies aren't going to make it and this money is down the tubes. If they do make it though - enormous upside. I'm just kind of doing this as an experiment and would like to do companies that are still traded on either Nasdaq or the NYSE. What would you pick?
FTAco07 said:
Thank you.
I don't know how LADR became a popular trading stock on this thread, but the below article from the WSJ illustrates what I was saying yesterday.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/citi-could-be-stuck-with-troubled-casino-loan-as-mortgage-market-seizes-up-11585051202?shareToken=st9ba5b5a647e14590a47bb957bc99eeca
LADR, like other commercial loan conduit originators, is sitting on a portfolio of loans that were to be sold in the CMBS market which is no longer functioning. Per the article, AAA CMBS spreads have already blown out from 86bps to 329 meaning every loan they originated and haven't sold yet is underwater by a significant amount. They can keep holding that paper and just take mark to market losses as long as their warehouse lender will work with them, but they aren't making any new loans for a while and aren't selling anything which means no fee revenue coming in. If their warehouse lender calls the line or they breach covenants they are up a creek.
In addition to the loans held for sale, the loans they plan to hold on their balance sheet are all B notes that are levered. Borrowers who work with shops like LADR are typically looking for higher LTV/LTC leverage than banks and certainly Life Co's will provide and the borrower's generally have little to no repayment guarantees. I don't know any specifics, but i'm guessing their last dollar exposure to most of their balance sheet loans is in the 75-85% LTV range. Layer in the debt LADR is using to juice those returns and it doesn't take a ton of missed mortgage payments to wipe that out.
As I've said before, I'm not a trader, but I am very active in the institutional commercial real estate business. For those of you that are traders I would bet these types of companies are much more likely to go to 0 than they are to rebound to prior high's unless the macro situation improves much quicker than most think it will.
That article makes me grin. I was at the Cosmopolitan Las Vegas (A Blacksone Property) when it was announced that Blackstone REIT had signed a sale-leaseback agreement with MGM for the Bellagio, next door. I was chatting with some BREIT execs and they thought it was the greatest deal in the world. How things change...
Once again, thanks for posting. This type of information is gold for traders and investors.
Shoot me an email to my username@gmail, if you don't mind. If we don't cross paths on the forums again, I'd like to run some ideas by you in the future.
Same is happening with GIS too. I decided I didn't care and bought some yesterday so I could write a covered call against them. And also bought an OTM call. There's not gonna be a lot of companies with good earnings reports for this quarter, but I think GIS will be one of them. At the very least, they ought to be able to maintain their dividend.hedge_zer0 said:
can somebody with more experience than I explain why companies like P&G or GILD are down even though demand for their products is through the roof. granted they aren't down as bad as the majority of other corps.
Non perishables. KHC will do well too probably
One stock I used to speculate on quite a bit is a local company, W&T Offshore (Ticker: WTI) which fluctuates substantially with oil prices. They're down in the low-mid dollar range ($1.64 today). I wouldn't suggest you get into it today but worth looking into. Doubt price of oil does anything good (for stocks) very soon. The last time I made a killing on WTI was years ago when they were in this range and I sold up in the $9's. It was a good ~12 month return. I only mention it because of the low stock priceAlta said:
Random question - I am going to throw a very small amount of money at three companies ($100 each) that are in dire straights right now. Most likely those companies aren't going to make it and this money is down the tubes. If they do make it though - enormous upside. I'm just kind of doing this as an experiment and would like to do companies that are still traded on either Nasdaq or the NYSE. What would you pick?
ETA - Local company as in Houston LOL
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